Dollar Drops Below 99.70, Gold Recovers to $4,410, Oil Rises, ASX Extends 4-Day Losing Streak

[RichieVo]

Date: August 18, 2026

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Executive Summary​

The US dollar extended its decline to a third straight session after weak US retail sales data reduced Fed rate hike expectations to ~33%. Gold recovered to $4,410/oz, supported by a weaker dollar and rising Middle East tensions. Oil surged toward $84/bbl as US-Iran talks remain deadlocked. The ASX200 fell for the fourth consecutive session, while the Nikkei225 rallied to a one-month high on AI-driven semiconductor strength.

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US Dollar – Pressured by Weak Data​

DXY trades near 99.56-99.66, down for a third straight session. US retail sales for July fell 0.6% month-on-month, well below the +0.1% consensus, further reducing Fed rate hike expectations. Odds of a September hold are now around 67%.
Key levels: Support 99.00–98.75; Resistance 99.75–100.00.
Outlook: Bearish below 99.75. Awaiting Fed minutes.

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WTI Crude – Surges to $83.90​

WTI crude trades near $83.90/bbl. US-Iran talks remain deadlocked, with Trump threatening military action if Oman interferes. Despite this, Gulf exports remain stable. Support at $80.50-80.00.
Key levels: Support $80.50–$80.00; Resistance $85.00–$86.37.
Outlook: Bullish short-term. Watch geopolitical headlines.

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Gold – Recovers to $4,410​

Gold trades near $4,410/oz, recovering from recent pullbacks. Weak US data reduced Fed rate hike expectations, supporting the metal. Israel launched new airstrikes on Lebanon, adding to geopolitical tensions.
Key levels: Support $4,377–$4,300; Resistance $4,450–$4,500.
Outlook: Bullish above $4,300, targeting $4,450-$4,500.

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USD/JPY – Hovering Near 159.30​

USD/JPY trades near 159.30. Japan's Q2 GDP grew just 1.1% annualized (vs. 2.0% expected), complicating BoJ rate hike plans. Intervention remains a key risk if 160 is breached.
Key levels: Support 158.50–158.00; Resistance 160.00–160.65.
Outlook: Neutral. Intervention risk elevated.

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ASX200 – Fourth Consecutive Decline​

ASX200 fell 0.46% to 9,073, its fourth straight session of losses and a two-week low. JB Hi-Fi plunged 11% on weak earnings, while NAB dropped 5% after its report. Materials (+1.6%) were the only bright spot, supported by rising commodity prices.
Key levels: Support 9,000–8,950; Resistance 9,110–9,150.
Outlook: Short-term pullback. Needs to hold 9,000.

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Nikkei225 – Rallies to One-Month High​

Nikkei225 rose 0.74% to 69,220, hitting a one-month high. Semiconductors and AI stocks led gains (Fujikura +15%, SoftBank, Tokyo Electron). Weak GDP data reduced BoJ rate hike expectations, supporting equities.
Key levels: Support 68,500–68,000; Resistance 69,300–70,000.
Outlook: Bullish short-term but watch for overbought conditions.

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Key Events This Week​

Date	Event	Notes
Thursday (Aug 20)	AU Employment Data + FOMC Minutes	Jobs report + Fed clues
Friday (Aug 21)	US Manufacturing & Services PMI	Key growth indicators
Jackson Hole Symposium	Fed Chair Warsh speech	Policy direction clues

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Currency Pairs – Key Levels​

• EUR/USD: 1.1565–1.1616 – Support 1.1500–1.1502; Resistance 1.1616–1.1700
• GBP/USD: 1.3530–1.3593 – Support 1.3500–1.3434; Resistance 1.3593–1.3658
• AUD/USD: 0.7090–0.7100 – Support 0.7000; Resistance 0.7149–0.7200
• USD/JPY: 159.30–159.53 – Support 158.50–158.00; Resistance 160.00–160.65

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• DXY: Bearish below 99.75
• Gold: Bullish above $4,300, targeting $4,450-$4,500
• Oil: Bullish short-term, geopolitical-driven
• USD/JPY: Intervention risk at 160
• ASX200: 4-day losing streak, watch 9,000 support
• Nikkei225: One-month high, AI/tech-driven