Date: August 17, 2026
Executive Summary
The US dollar steadied below 100 after soft PPI and CPI data cooled Fed rate hike expectations to ~40%. Gold pulled back from a two-month high of $4,450, while oil gained nearly 6% for the week on geopolitical tensions. The ASX200 extended its weekly losses, pressured by weak iron ore prices and property sector concerns. Markets now await Australian employment data and Fed minutes for directional clues.US Dollar – Steady Below 100
DXY trades near 99.75. July PPI and CPI data showed inflation cooling, reducing September Fed hike odds to ~40%. The dollar has lost both the 20-day (100.45) and 50-day (100.51) moving averages, now holding only above the 100-day MA at 99.75.Key levels: Support 99.50–99.00; Resistance 100.00–100.45.
Outlook: Bearish short-term. Australian jobs data and Fed minutes will set direction.
WTI Crude – Gains on Geopolitical Risks
WTI crude gained nearly 6% last week, trading near $81.30/bbl. US-Iran talks remain deadlocked, while Ukraine continues to strike Russian refineries. IEA and OPEC both lowered demand forecasts, but geopolitical risks continue to support prices.Key levels: Support $80.00–$78.66; Resistance $83.56–$85.00.
Outlook: Neutral to bullish. Watch geopolitical headlines.
Gold – Pulls Back from $4,450
Gold trades near $4,370/oz, pulling back from a two-month high of $4,450. The $4,500 level – which coincides with the 200-day MA – remains a strong psychological barrier. Markets now await Fed minutes and Australian employment data.Key levels: Support $4,300–$4,250; Resistance $4,450–$4,500.
Outlook: Neutral to bearish short-term. Needs to hold $4,300.
USD/JPY – Heading Toward 160
USD/JPY trades near 159.30-159.50, approaching the key 160 level. US-Japan intervention remains a key risk. The BoJ is expected to hike rates in September or October. The 160.00 level could trigger fresh intervention.Key levels: Support 158.50–158.00; Resistance 160.00–160.60.
Outlook: Neutral. Intervention risk elevated.
ASX200 – Third Weekly Decline
ASX200 closed the week at 9,115, down 0.8% on Friday, marking its third consecutive weekly decline. Weak iron ore prices and property sector concerns weighed on the index. Tech and energy sectors saw mild gains, while materials and real estate declined sharply.Key levels: Support 9,100–9,040; Resistance 9,200–9,300.
Outlook: Short-term pullback. Awaiting Australian jobs data.
Dow Jones – Pulls Back from Record Highs
The Dow Jones closed the week at 53,732, down 0.56%, pulling back from its all-time high of 54,349. Markets are awaiting fresh catalysts from Fed minutes and economic data. Financials and healthcare led, while tech and industrials faced pressure.
Key levels: Support 53,500–52,990; Resistance 54,200–54,349.Outlook: Technical pullback, medium-term trend remains positive.
Key Events This Week
| Date | Event | Notes |
| Thursday (Aug 20) | AU Employment Data | Key jobs report for Australia |
| Thursday (Aug 20) | US Initial Jobless Claims + Fed Minutes | Monetary policy clues |
| Friday (Aug 21) | US Consumer Sentiment (Michigan) | Consumer confidence data |
Currency Pairs – Key Levels
- EUR/USD: 1.1545–1.1565 – Support 1.1500–1.1465; Resistance 1.1567–1.1600
- GBP/USD: 1.3525–1.3560 – Support 1.3500–1.3480; Resistance 1.3570–1.3600
- AUD/USD: 0.7046–0.7080 – Support 0.7012–0.7000; Resistance 0.7090–0.7100
- USD/JPY: 159.30–159.50 – Support 158.50–158.00; Resistance 160.00–160.60
- DXY: Bearish below 100
- Gold: Correcting from highs, needs to hold $4,300
- Oil: Neutral to bullish, geopolitical-driven
- USD/JPY: Approaching 160, intervention risk elevated
- ASX200: Third weekly decline, awaiting jobs data
- Dow Jones: Pullback from record highs, medium-term positive
