Date: August 14, 2026
Key levels: Support 99.75–99.17; Resistance 100.45–100.51.
Outlook: Bearish short-term. PPI data tonight will set direction.
Key levels: Support 159.00–158.19; Resistance 160.00–160.70.
Outlook: Neutral to bearish. Intervention risk elevated.
Key levels: Support $80.00–$78.66; Resistance $83.98–$85.00.
Outlook: Neutral. Watch geopolitical headlines closely.
Key levels: Support $4,300–$4,250–$4,231; Resistance $4,435–$4,500.
Outlook: Neutral to bearish short-term. Needs to hold $4,300 to maintain upward momentum.
Key levels: Support 9,150–9,040; Resistance 9,250–9,300.
Outlook: Short-term pullback, medium-term trend remains positive.
Key levels: Support 13,737–13,700; Resistance 14,012.
Outlook: Technical recovery, medium-term trend remains positive.
Executive Summary
US inflation data met expectations, cooling Fed rate hike expectations and sending the September probability down to ~40%. Gold pulled back from a two-month high of $4,450, while the dollar remained steady near 100. Oil held near $81 as geopolitical risks and demand concerns kept prices in a tight range. Asian equities were mixed, with the ASX200 extending losses as RBA officials reaffirmed the need to maintain tight monetary policy.US Dollar – Steady Near 100, Hovering Below Key MAs
DXY trades near 99.80-100.05. July CPI rose 3.4% (down from 3.5%), while core CPI rose 2.5% (down from 2.6%). September Fed hike odds dropped from 55% to 40%. The dollar has lost both the 20-day (100.45) and 50-day (100.51) moving averages, now holding only above the 100-day MA at 99.75. RSI at 43.23 suggests further downside room remains.Key levels: Support 99.75–99.17; Resistance 100.45–100.51.
Outlook: Bearish short-term. PPI data tonight will set direction.
USD/JPY – Hovering Near 159.40, Intervention Risk Looms
USD/JPY trades near 159.40, with US-Japan intervention remaining a key risk. The 160.00 psychological level is a critical threshold – a break above could trigger fresh intervention. The 200-day MA at 158.19 serves as key support. Finance Minister Katayama confirmed US-Japan coordinated intervention, with Trump calling it a "signal of friendship."Key levels: Support 159.00–158.19; Resistance 160.00–160.70.
Outlook: Neutral to bearish. Intervention risk elevated.
WTI Crude – Holding Near $81
WTI crude trades near $80.30-81.00/bbl. US missile strikes on oil tankers escalated tensions, while Pakistan continues mediation efforts. US ammunition shortages limit the potential for major military escalation. Prices remain caught between geopolitical risks and weak demand fundamentals.Key levels: Support $80.00–$78.66; Resistance $83.98–$85.00.
Outlook: Neutral. Watch geopolitical headlines closely.
Gold – Pulls Back from $4,450
Gold trades near $4,338-4,345/oz, retreating after hitting $4,450. The CPI data was supportive for gold (lower Fed hike odds), but the metal had already priced in much of the move, leading to profit-taking. The $4,500 level – which also coincides with the 200-day MA at $4,503 – remains a strong psychological barrier.Key levels: Support $4,300–$4,250–$4,231; Resistance $4,435–$4,500.
Outlook: Neutral to bearish short-term. Needs to hold $4,300 to maintain upward momentum.
ASX200 – Extends Losses as Hawkish RBA Signals Weigh
ASX200 fell 0.2% to 9,188, its second consecutive decline. RBA Assistant Governor Kent reaffirmed the need to maintain tight monetary policy to curb inflation. China signaled no major stimulus, weighing on materials stocks. Utilities (+2.78%) and tech (+0.85%) outperformed.Key levels: Support 9,150–9,040; Resistance 9,250–9,300.
Outlook: Short-term pullback, medium-term trend remains positive.
NZX50 – Rebounds 0.6%
NZX50 rose 0.6% to 13,825, recovering from a two-day decline. Q3 inflation expectations fell to 2.34%, reducing RBNZ rate hike expectations. Banks and consumer stocks led gains.Key levels: Support 13,737–13,700; Resistance 14,012.
Outlook: Technical recovery, medium-term trend remains positive.
Key Events Today (August 14) – IMPORTANT
| Time (AEST) | Event | Notes |
| 19:00 | UK GDP (Q2) | Expected to show slower growth |
| 22:30 | US Producer Price Index (Jul) | Wholesale inflation data |
| 22:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims | Weekly unemployment data |
Currency Pairs – Key Levels
- EUR/USD: 1.1516–1.1530 – Support: 1.1500–1.1464; Resistance: 1.1566–1.1620
- GBP/USD: 1.3485–1.3500 – Support: 1.3480–1.3415; Resistance: 1.3550–1.3560
- AUD/USD: 0.7046–0.7050 – Support: 0.7016–0.7000; Resistance: 0.7091–0.7100
- USD/JPY: 159.40–159.60 – Support: 159.00–158.19; Resistance: 160.00–160.70
- DXY: Bearish short-term below 100.45
- Gold: Correcting from highs, needs to hold $4,300
- Oil: Range-bound, geopolitical-driven
- USD/JPY: Intervention risk at 160
- ASX200: Pullback, medium-term positive
- NZX50: Recovering, medium-term positive
