who on here actually makes money trading?

[DashRiprock]

Rite, just so no-one takes me the wrong way (ow), I'm not sayin that there is no edge to be had in directional punting. What I meant to say that it is quite a bit harder than most people give it credit.

under certain circumstances I take directional punts and am a price taker but only when the market conditions warrant it, and these times are deffo the exception not the norm. Like, for instance, ADP today, or when silver was goin apesh!t (there is a thread when i explain a bit my approach in that way but i dont trade silver). Markets arnt like that 95% of the time though.

as well I said that a directional bias can be a catalyst for the good trades from liquidy provider / order flow. so I mean only taking these types of trades when they fit into some other broader outlook.

But equally I believe what I know and I aint gonna start doubting it.

 

[Joey25]

The interdealer order flow off Reuters / EBS takes the form of a '1' for an order, irrespective of size, so in terms of guaging market sentiment it might seem that these numbers are a bit of a hit and miss.

Evans and Lyons (Journal of Political Economy) were the first academics to look at the predictive value of these '1s' compared to macroeconomics and the amount of explanatory power of the 1s was staggering.

I think it goes to show that pretty crude proxies for order flow, which could include some sorts of technical analysis, are an effective way to go.

 

[TheBramble]

Edit: didn't know you into fx. Thought you were dabbling in other markets

I am. But I don't do vanilla directionals in them.

 

[DashRiprock]

The interdealer order flow off Reuters / EBS takes the form of a '1' for an order, irrespective of size, so in terms of guaging market sentiment it might seem that these numbers are a bit of a hit and miss.

Evans and Lyons (Journal of Political Economy) were the first academics to look at the predictive value of these '1s' compared to macroeconomics and the amount of explanatory power of the 1s was staggering.

I think it goes to show that pretty crude proxies for order flow, which could include some sorts of technical analysis, are an effective way to go.

I have read good papers on this but cant remember names.

One of them was looking at the "delta" (like Bid-Offer difference) of the orders on BNP's FX desk for 2 years. I think the result was not profitable after costs but it was good reading.

Another one I read which might be the same as your one was on order flow as a leading indicator of macroeconomic trends or sumthing. tbh I can't be ar$ed to look again tho.

if u search there are interesting things from order flow and academia to be reading. there is a posh name for it but I forgotten.

 

[forker]

I am. But I don't do vanilla directionals in them.

More of em banana split type then

 

[TheBramble]

More of em banana split type then

Nuthin' I like better than straddling a banana while strangling the bishop.

 

[MajorDutch]

There’s been an awful lot of talk here about how order flow, market making privs (and not too many etcs)…are the only things that count as an edge and directional trading by itself is 50/50 at best. While I genuinely respect the opinions stated by most of the posters (not ‘snap on’, obviously) from a pro angle that’s an understandable though somewhat limited perspective.

As a tiny little retail FX boy myself who does trade vanilla directionals and makes consistent (though variable to be sure) gains playing it that way, I can confirm there isn’t too much Black Magic involved in getting the direction right. Not saying I wouldn’t be delighted to enjoy the informational and execution advantages of a pro, but then again, I wouldn’t want to give up the advantages I currently have ploughing my own furrow, my own way.

Getting the timing right, the entry right, the exit right, keeping yer fingers off the friggin keys in the interim, your head straight, your emotions in check, your risk controlled and your selection criteria focused only on grade-A ops, is slightly more of a challenge compared with simply assessing price action and direction, but doable. Honest. And all of those issues I’ve just mentioned in that last sentence equally afflict those who enjoy professional facilities and training. So the edge really isn’t in the platform or the information or the instrument or the facilities at all, it’s in the trader.

As I mentioned in a post yesterday, even with roulette (as the Red/Black analogy has been used here earlier) provides us with an edge if we choose to use it.

Plenty of cats. Plenty of skins. Plenty of ways to separate the two from each other.

my comments about directional trading were in relation to direction trading WITHOUT a proven edge. consistent profits are definitely possible without the order book but I totally agree with DashPIProck in that it is much harder than it looks especially with OTC products like spot FX where in many cases you are being quoted 'bucket shop' prices. I should point out that I am not a profitable trader I dont pretend to be I am still finding my way to profitability albeit very slowly trying to sniff out who to learn from and who not to learn from.

 

[Pazienza]

There’s been an awful lot of talk here about how order flow, market making privs (and not too many etcs)…are the only things that count as an edge and directional trading by itself is 50/50 at best. While I genuinely respect the opinions stated by most of the posters (not ‘snap on’, obviously) from a pro angle that’s an understandable though somewhat limited perspective.

As a tiny little retail FX boy myself who does trade vanilla directionals and makes consistent (though variable to be sure) gains playing it that way, I can confirm there isn’t too much Black Magic involved in getting the direction right. Not saying I wouldn’t be delighted to enjoy the informational and execution advantages of a pro, but then again, I wouldn’t want to give up the advantages I currently have ploughing my own furrow, my own way.

Getting the timing right, the entry right, the exit right, keeping yer fingers off the friggin keys in the interim, your head straight, your emotions in check, your risk controlled and your selection criteria focused only on grade-A ops, is slightly more of a challenge compared with simply assessing price action and direction, but doable. Honest. And all of those issues I’ve just mentioned in that last sentence equally afflict those who enjoy professional facilities and training. So the edge really isn’t in the platform or the information or the instrument or the facilities at all, it’s in the trader.

As I mentioned in a post yesterday, even with roulette (as the Red/Black analogy has been used here earlier) provides us with an edge if we choose to use it.

Plenty of cats. Plenty of skins. Plenty of ways to separate the two from each other.

Good post. In particular I think people need to realise how much advantage there can be in being a little retail punter, as long as you can "keep yer fingers off the friggin keys" .

By the way, I too am surprised that you're into FX. I had you down for something far more respectable like commodities.

 

[TheBramble]

By the way, I too am surprised that you're into FX. I had you down for something far more respectable like commodities.

Er, see other post responding to forker who had a similar understanding. You're both right.

 

[Joey25]

I have read good papers on this but cant remember names.

One of them was looking at the "delta" (like Bid-Offer difference) of the orders on BNP's FX desk for 2 years. I think the result was not profitable after costs but it was good reading.

Another one I read which might be the same as your one was on order flow as a leading indicator of macroeconomic trends or sumthing. tbh I can't be ar$ed to look again tho.

if u search there are interesting things from order flow and academia to be reading. there is a posh name for it but I forgotten.

Market microstructure.

 

[captainpacific]

My other-other universal formula clearly states:

When man is defensive, man has something to hide.

Ask yourself this: why do you need validation from a beginner ? But I will indulge you. Give me free training, I will validate your claims, by ways of profits made from your technique, on behalf of all the people in this thread.

I don't need validation from a beginner. I just joined the forum yesterday and I find this thread amusing.

Your obsession (360+ posts in a month) about failure is all your own and I'm happy to let you swim or drown in it. I won't pretend to understand your motives or drivers, and I'm also completely happy for you to enjoy your point of view.

It's very funny though - and guess what: some of my more serious comments may not be aimed at you, but instead to others who might be interested (now there's a shocking thought)!

I never have and never will accept those into any training who's main determination is to fail, just to prove their point. Of course, if you want to fail you will - I can almost guarantee that.

However, I have also met plenty of people who teach but cannot do, especially in trading circles. I nearly went into partnership with one such guy many years ago - I saw the light just in time. So I do know what you are talking about in terms of there being plenty of utter rubbish out there - beyond landfill.

The big pity is that it seems your exposure to those types has poisoned your view so much that you now appear to be incapable of believing in success.

"I don't believe it!" said Luke. "That is why you fail." said Yoda.

 

[Pazienza]

Well, this thread seems to have gone off-topic somewhat (who'd a thought such a thing could happen ).

I do better now than I did in my job, and I'm still building up to my full account.

One thing I do know, there is one group of people who definitely make money from "trading" (most don't make money from trading though).

Vendors.

 

[counter_violent]

I'm thinking of starting up a "Restore your SB account to it's starting balance" type service, where you pay me 50% / week of the trading profits until we reach parity...miss a payment and the deal is off...miss a payment and annoy me... and i'll blow up your account in 2 hrs flat

I don't expect there will be any takers though...as this place is full of competent and profitable traders.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

The big pity is that it seems your exposure to those types has poisoned your view so much that you now appear to be incapable of believing in success.

I have no exposure to trainers at all. My universal formulas would not allow me to. Who said I don't believe in success ? I stared at 550 big ones in my SB account today. I expect another 500 big ones in the next few days. Success is aplenty. I just don't believe it in trainers. To prove me wrong, show me what you've got in the forum contest ?

 

[DashRiprock]

I have no exposure to trainers at all. My universal formulas would not allow me to. Who said I don't believe in success ? I stared at 550 big ones in my SB account today. I expect another 500 big ones in the next few days. Success is aplenty. I just don't believe it in trainers. To prove me wrong, show me what you've got in the forum contest ?

why would you open an account with a million quid if u dont know your d!ck from a donkey?

 

[BeginnerJoe]

why would you open an account with a million quid if u dont know your d!ck from a donkey?

We are working on different scales. One big one equates to £1 profit to me.

I am not yet in a position to scale up. But I am contemplating it. Apparently, there's no upper limit to SB'ing except increased deposit requirement.

 

[wackypete2]

I refuse to believe there are exceptions. I want people to put down the names of these exceptions, or go home.

You sure have strong one-sided opinions for someone who is just starting out. Trade a live account for 6 months then come back and let us know how your universal laws are working out.

Peter

 

[wackypete2]

We are working on different scales. One big one equates to £1 profit to me.

Peter

 

[DashRiprock]

better to lose a big one than a million I spose

 

[rawrschach]

I have no exposure to trainers at all.

Or to the market.