Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders
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PaulHClark
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I am still long NatGas and now making good money up 120 pips - many reasons but also note the differentials between oil-gas has been very wide recently. NatGas may now be in a channel to the upside.
Made small risk entry on USD/JPY to long side earlier at 9130 with long stop at 9003
Have a low risk/high return daily option 'one touch' on DJIA @9780 with hedge to upside in same market.
Could take a bath if it all goes flat - hey ho - but made a little money on footsie pullback today.
Rationale is my VantagePoint suggests a top is near thereabouts and market noise indicates the Fed may pull back on liquidity. Could push dollar higher and stocks lower - fits with what I am seeing in trends on VP.
Will be interesting ride into October IMHO - aim is to hedge any position taking without limiting the upside (not always easily done!).
Let me know if you think I'm off beam - please.
Good luck everyone.
Made small risk entry on USD/JPY to long side earlier at 9130 with long stop at 9003
Have a low risk/high return daily option 'one touch' on DJIA @9780 with hedge to upside in same market.
Could take a bath if it all goes flat - hey ho - but made a little money on footsie pullback today.
Rationale is my VantagePoint suggests a top is near thereabouts and market noise indicates the Fed may pull back on liquidity. Could push dollar higher and stocks lower - fits with what I am seeing in trends on VP.
Will be interesting ride into October IMHO - aim is to hedge any position taking without limiting the upside (not always easily done!).
Let me know if you think I'm off beam - please.
Good luck everyone.
wallstreet1928
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OK 30 mins and counting
nice double top on BLT and BP and .......................boom down we go
MKS .....too
So what is going to happen ........I'm filled with excitement
PaulHClark
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Thanks Robinc - looking for a graphic of a bath though!
DSL - hedge is simple binary trade on DJIA (in my view the only time such instruments are remotely useful).
DSL - hedge is simple binary trade on DJIA (in my view the only time such instruments are remotely useful).
wallstreet1928
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So lets be honest nobody Knows what is going to happen and how the market will react ?
Lets all make mystic meg predictions ........
I shorted today ..........
I then covered position and bought into weakness
I have off loaded all my longs on oil, currency and indices
I am now flat .........
Based on BP closing below 550 ............and crude selling
BLT forming lower lows
MKS ..........failed triple top ...although I have medium-long term target of £4.15-£4.36
BARC still weak ....I have £2.60 targt on it
I think we will see a sell off
any other predictions
Lets all make mystic meg predictions ........
I shorted today ..........
I then covered position and bought into weakness
I have off loaded all my longs on oil, currency and indices
I am now flat .........
Based on BP closing below 550 ............and crude selling
BLT forming lower lows
MKS ..........failed triple top ...although I have medium-long term target of £4.15-£4.36
BARC still weak ....I have £2.60 targt on it
I think we will see a sell off
any other predictions
PaulHClark
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Nice one WS - trade what you see!
wallstreet1928
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19.15
Lets get ready to Rumble ...............
Lets get ready to Rumble ...............
wallstreet1928
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OK so Life after the FOMC
I have shorted the FTsE after the sugar high we have just experienced ....so stops break even now
Keep watching the USd/JPY .............its picking up steam and this market will go down as it goes up
wallstreet1928
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The U.S. dollar collapsed after the Fed meeting as currency traders interpreted the FOMC statement as a green light to sell dollars. The Fed did exactly what the market had anticipated in terms of upgrading their economic assessment and extending the expiration date of their asset purchases program but what currency traders latched onto was their plans to keep the fed funds rate an at an exceptionally low level for an extended period of time because of substantial resource slack and subdued inflation pressures. For the time being, the Federal Reserve is clearly not worried about the inflationary impact of a weaker dollar. Although it can also be argued that the dollar’s weakness stems from the improvement in risk appetite that followed the Fed’s more upbeat tone, the sell-off in USD/JPY indicates that the move is a dollar story. The takeaway point from the Fed meeting is that interest rates in the U.S. will remain low into 2010, leaving the dollar as the perfect funding currency for carry trades.
In general, the Federal Reserve did exactly what the market anticipated. Team Bernanke left interest rates unchanged at 0.25 percent and recognized the improvements in the economy and financial markets when they said that economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn. The housing market continues to recover and businesses are cutting back on fixed investment and staffing at a slower pace. They also extended the deadline for completing their mortgage backed securities and agency debt purchase program to the end of the first quarter while keeping the size of the program unchanged. By spreading out their stimulus over a longer period of time, they are telling the markets that conditions in the financial markets have improved enough that they do not need to hit the market with the entire stimulus now.
As you can see by the reaction in the equity markets, the outcome of the Fed meeting is positive for the economy. Unfortunately it is not positive for the dollar. With bond yields falling across the board, the dollar carry trade remains the primary driving force behind dollar weakness. The next FOMC meeting is not until November 4th and a lot can change in six weeks particularly with the dollar and equities trading at significant levels. With the cash for clunkers program and back to school sales over, it will be important to see how consumer spending holds up over the next few months. In the meantime, the only thing that can stop the dollar from falling would be the concern by other central banks or G20 leaders.
When Will the Federal Reserve Raise Interest Rates?
In order for the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates, they will first have to remove their excess policy accommodation and unwind some of their aggressive asset purchase programs. We expect them to do so gradually over the next few months and for traders to start thinking about a rate hike in 2010. Prior to today’s Fed meeting, Fed fund futures were pricing in a rate hike in June. However, over the past 3 decades, the U.S. central bank has never raised interest rates before the unemployment rate peaked (as highlighted in the chart below). Everyone from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and President Barack Obama has said that the unemployment rate will continue to rise even though the economy has stabilized. Currently the unemployment rate is 9.7 percent and it is not expected to peak until it breaks the 10 percent mark. There is a good chance that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates “exceptionally low” throughout the first half of 2010 which means that the dollar could remain the funding currency of choice next year.
In general, the Federal Reserve did exactly what the market anticipated. Team Bernanke left interest rates unchanged at 0.25 percent and recognized the improvements in the economy and financial markets when they said that economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn. The housing market continues to recover and businesses are cutting back on fixed investment and staffing at a slower pace. They also extended the deadline for completing their mortgage backed securities and agency debt purchase program to the end of the first quarter while keeping the size of the program unchanged. By spreading out their stimulus over a longer period of time, they are telling the markets that conditions in the financial markets have improved enough that they do not need to hit the market with the entire stimulus now.
As you can see by the reaction in the equity markets, the outcome of the Fed meeting is positive for the economy. Unfortunately it is not positive for the dollar. With bond yields falling across the board, the dollar carry trade remains the primary driving force behind dollar weakness. The next FOMC meeting is not until November 4th and a lot can change in six weeks particularly with the dollar and equities trading at significant levels. With the cash for clunkers program and back to school sales over, it will be important to see how consumer spending holds up over the next few months. In the meantime, the only thing that can stop the dollar from falling would be the concern by other central banks or G20 leaders.
When Will the Federal Reserve Raise Interest Rates?
In order for the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates, they will first have to remove their excess policy accommodation and unwind some of their aggressive asset purchase programs. We expect them to do so gradually over the next few months and for traders to start thinking about a rate hike in 2010. Prior to today’s Fed meeting, Fed fund futures were pricing in a rate hike in June. However, over the past 3 decades, the U.S. central bank has never raised interest rates before the unemployment rate peaked (as highlighted in the chart below). Everyone from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and President Barack Obama has said that the unemployment rate will continue to rise even though the economy has stabilized. Currently the unemployment rate is 9.7 percent and it is not expected to peak until it breaks the 10 percent mark. There is a good chance that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates “exceptionally low” throughout the first half of 2010 which means that the dollar could remain the funding currency of choice next year.
wallstreet1928
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wallstreet1928
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WATCH CRUDE FOLKS .........
< $68.5 .................THEN NEXT LEVEL WILL BE $67.5
This smells fishy
< $68.5 .................THEN NEXT LEVEL WILL BE $67.5
This smells fishy
wallstreet1928
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Nice recovery on UUP folks ........
we should be coming into double top resistance soon
but with this powerful reversal will it stop there
we should be coming into double top resistance soon
but with this powerful reversal will it stop there
wallstreet1928
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wallstreet1928
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I have taken profit on my shorts here ..........
I will look to buy now .......
especially the nasdaq anywhere around 1710 - 20
FTSE 5100 - 5125 level
I will look to buy now .......
especially the nasdaq anywhere around 1710 - 20
FTSE 5100 - 5125 level
Didn't quite make it to 10,000 today. All indicies are at a turning point.
Think March lows will be taken out late 2009/early 2010. Laugh if you want !
PaulHClark
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