Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

[Geofract]

closed for 18 points profit as bias to the upside now ............

Do you have an upside target to short WS, or do you see resumption of the main trend up?

FWIW, 4665 ish area could be a short for me based on the current chart. Actually, I'm not trading the FTSE, but if I were, that would be the area, subject to confirmation.

 

[vinicius]

IG charts dont show FTSE volume (even if its selected from settings). Where do you get FTSE 100 volume realtime along with the chart movements.
Also on google you dont get volume (even though its 15 min delayed)

You have to pay for it!

 

[Geofract]

What is the consensus on using fib?

Do you measure from the extreme "wicks" or the main bodies from the candles?

Sometimes you will find price retraces to exact fib numbers, especially in FX IMHO. But, it is worth looking for areas of S/R at these fib numbers, because I think they could be of equal importance. I am trying to think of fibs as a gauge, rather than a set of magic numbers.

Just my 2p.

 

[wallstreet1928]

closed for 18 points profit as bias to the upside now ............

good job i closed my short as the market leading stocks were showing bullish pattern

especially bp and barclays

 

[minch]

Sometimes you will find price retraces to exact fib numbers, especially in FX IMHO. But, it is worth looking for areas of S/R at these fib numbers, because I think they could be of equal importance. I am trying to think of fibs as a gauge, rather than a set of magic numbers.

Just my 2p.

And here's a good example Geo with eur/usd, I took a short on Fri based on confluence of these levels.

Looking at the Daily chart, on thurs 13th price reached the 61.8 fib of the swing high 3/5 Aug to the swing low on the 12th, which coincided with strong resistance on the 2/3 june at 1.4309.

Price tested and rejected this level again on the 28 jul, this also being the top of the left shoulder of the potential h&s which was confirmed on the 14 aug.

If you drill down to the hourly chart on the 13/14 aug, price is ranging in its channel, I took the trade when price was at the top of the channel and broke back below 1.4300 level on the 1300hr bar.

I personally dont take a trade based on fib alone, but as you say it works well in FX, when supported by a strong S/R level.

 

[wallstreet1928]

this the reason why this market is not falling hard

Hurricane Bill grows to Category 4 storm

MIAMI (Reuters) - Hurricane Bill, the first of the 2009 Atlantic season, gathered strength and grew into a dangerous Category 4 storm with sustained winds of up to 135 mph on Wednesday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Bill posed no threat to oil installations in the Gulf of Mexico but authorities in Bermuda, a British territory and reinsurance capital, warned residents to be prepared.

Energy markets watch storms in the Gulf of Mexico closely because the region produces a quarter of U.S. oil and 15 percent of its natural gas.

With winds extending outward 45 miles, Bill was expected to push well past the Leeward Islands late Wednesday and early Thursday but hurricane center officials still urged islanders to be on the alert.

At 5 a.m. EST, Bill's center was about 460 miles (740km) east of the Leeward Islands and moving west-northwest at 16 mph (26 kmh).

"The core of this dangerous hurricane will be passing well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands late today and early Thursday," the hurricane center advisory said.

The storm had the potential to grow in the next 24 hours and turn toward the northwest, the advisory said.

Hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the five-step Saffir-Simpson intensity scale are considered "major" and are the most destructive type.

WATCH ON ANA

Energy traders were keeping an eye on the remnants of Tropical Storm Ana, which was producing thunderstorms over Haiti, Cuba and the Bahamas.

The NHC forecast the storm front had a low chance -- less than 30 percent -- of becoming a tropical cyclone again over the next 48 hours.

One forecaster, AccuWeather.com, said it was unlikely but possible the system could regenerate over the eastern Gulf later in the week. Some forecasters noted Ana had already regenerated once.

Hurricane expert Jeff Masters, founder of the Weather Underground website, said he expected Hurricane Bill to move between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast toward Canada's Maritime Provinces.

"I think the likely main impact (on the U.S. coast) is going to be beach erosion and coastal waves," he said. "Direct impacts are unlikely."

Bill will encounter energy-sapping cool water when it reaches North Carolina but could still be a Category 1 hurricane near Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, Masters said. (Writing by Bill Trott; Editing by Matthew Jones)

 

[Geofract]

And here's a good example Geo with eur/usd, I took a short on Fri based on confluence of these levels.

Looking at the Daily chart, on thurs 13th price reached the 61.8 fib of the swing high 3/5 Aug to the swing low on the 12th, which coincided with strong resistance on the 2/3 june at 1.4309.

Price tested and rejected this level again on the 28 jul, this also being the top of the left shoulder of the potential h&s which was confirmed on the 14 aug.

If you drill down to the hourly chart on the 13/14 aug, price is ranging in its channel, I took the trade when price was at the top of the channel and broke back below 1.4300 level on the 1300hr bar.

I personally dont take a trade based on fib alone, but as you say it works well in FX, when supported by a strong S/R level.

Yes, that was a lovely setup Minch - are you still in that trade? I am looking for shorts on E$ now. H1 really looks like a nice bear flag to me. H3 bias is down too.

There must be a lot of fib traders in FX land, as the amount of times price retraces to exact fib numbers surely can't be coincidence

 

[papak]

FTSE was BE, SP500 took off sell order idem Gold.
I was too hasty this morning with analysis. Think we will go up with FTSE today.

Gold chart is interesting.
I will buy if we break yesterdays high - we went down hard for 2 days, now in up move?
We could have completed this whole down move in 3 waves (see chart) or perhaps we go up a bit then one final wave down.
Price action in next few days will tell what it will be.

papak

 

[Geofract]

E$ short at 1.4130 ish might be good, if it gets there. I can't see there being an entry on £Y short for sometime yet, at least on my entry criteria.

Looks like E$ short @ 1.4130 was pretty much bang on! Shame I missed the entry though! :whistling

FTSE short at 4665 ish wouldn't be too bad either so far at least.

 

[vinicius]

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen JPY continues its firm tone on risk aversion sentiment; moves beyond the 94 handle against USD
- USD/JPY lower by 100 pips at 93.85
- EUR/JPY cross lower by 170 pips at 132.60
- GBP/JPY cross lower by 320 pips at 154.10
- AUD/JPY cross lower by 160 pips at 77.00
- CAD/JPY cross lower by 145 pips at 84.70
- CHF/JPY cross lower by 85 pips at 87.50


YEN is a "safe-heaven".. Looks everyone is running to the montains.. Lets see if dow jones is gonna push through 9.100.

 

[minch]

Yes, that was a lovely setup Minch - are you still in that trade? I am looking for shorts on E$ now. H1 really looks like a nice bear flag to me. H3 bias is down too.

There must be a lot of fib traders in FX land, as the amount of times price retraces to exact fib numbers surely can't be coincidence

No I closed same day, for a nice chunk though, didn't want to hold over the weekend.
Im tied up at the mo with work commitments

That H1 bear flag played out well.

Bl.....g work.

 

[SuddenDeath]

Prechter on CNBC 17th aug

YouTube - Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave on CNBC's Closing Bell, Aug 17, 2009

 

[london_lad]

Prechter on CNBC 17th aug

YouTube - Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave on CNBC's Closing Bell, Aug 17, 2009

What about him? He said we will go below march lows right?

 

[kaisen]

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen JPY continues its firm tone on risk aversion sentiment; moves beyond the 94 handle against USD
- USD/JPY lower by 100 pips at 93.85
- EUR/JPY cross lower by 170 pips at 132.60
- GBP/JPY cross lower by 320 pips at 154.10
- AUD/JPY cross lower by 160 pips at 77.00
- CAD/JPY cross lower by 145 pips at 84.70
- CHF/JPY cross lower by 85 pips at 87.50


YEN is a "safe-heaven".. Looks everyone is running to the montains.. Lets see if dow jones is gonna push through 9.100.

Thanks for the info very interesting

How has the dollar done against the other currencies? While the yen may be a safe haven isnt the dollar also considered safe? If so will the effect on the markets not be more weighted to the strength of the dollar?
GBP $ hovering around 1.64 and has dipped into high 1.63´s and it was 1.65 yesterday.
€$ around 1.41 and dipped into 1.40´s today.

As you are advanced of myself I am interested in your views.

Thank you for your time in advance

 

[vinicius]

Dollar has been rising against almost all other currencies.. The actual sentiment is fear and loads of people is getting out of high risk currencies.. as NZD, AUS, GBP.. Also there are some people calling the bottom of the USD.

There is a high correlation between dollar and equites. When one is rising the other is falling..

I`m bullish in dollar and bearish in equites.

I was short Euro from 1.43 and then 1.4230. I closed it yesterday, because I was expecting a retracement and I had enoguh pips on my bank.

I`m fighting with USD/YEN. It has potential to go high, very high and we are near the bottom, japanese bank has said that it wont let the yen aprecciate too much against dollar. So something big may happen in the following days..

However 90`s is on the tables.. I have been following this pair for some time now and luckily I`m getting pretty beautiful entries which gives me the chance to get in and get out without losing money...

Pretty trick I have to say.

 

[kaisen]

Dollar has been rising against almost all other currencies.. The actual sentiment is fear and loads of people is getting out of high risk currencies.. as NZD, AUS, GBP.. Also there are some people calling the bottom of the USD.

There is a high correlation between dollar and equites. When one is rising the other is falling..

I`m bullish in dollar and bearish in equites.

I was short Euro from 1.43 and then 1.4230. I closed it yesterday, because I was expecting a retracement and I had enoguh pips on my bank.

I`m fighting with USD/YEN. It has potential to go high, very high and we are near the bottom, japanese bank has said that it wont let the yen aprecciate too much against dollar. So something big may happen in the following days..

However 90`s is on the tables.. I have been following this pair for some time now and luckily I`m getting pretty beautiful entries which gives me the chance to get in and get out without losing money...

Pretty trick I have to say.

That makes more sense - my apologies - i interpreted you saying the dow and markets would rise - "Push through" rather than break below.

My fault - thanks for your time and explanation.

All the best

 

[vinicius]

That makes more sense - my apologies - i interpreted you saying the dow and markets would rise - "Push through" rather than break below.

My fault - thanks for your time and explanation.

All the best

lol.. Sorry about my english!!

 

[london_lad]

Just a quick show of hands, how many desis are following this thread. I know I am one.

 

[SuddenDeath]

we are all desii

 

[SuddenDeath]

check out this trading setup

9/30 Setup