Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

[lapalabra]

hey you a re not rambling, thats really intersting and very decent of you to share your analysis. Many thanks Lapa.

Just to take that analysis and look at todays action with last nights data. Am I right in thinking there is a similar consolidation period between 5.15pm yesterday and 8.15am today? the levels in that range appear to be a low of 11700 and a high of 11721 (peaked twice at 11730 witha big spike at 10.25pm) and then it as zonked down to a low of 11666 so far today?

Yes, exactly - from 3AM though not from yesterday pm - you want to see price very tight, in a small range and basically in low volume hours (ie., the movement when volume trading picks up come 6am or thereabouts makes a definitive move that carries)

Would have worked this morning, I didnt trade it cos my charts werent working

there's a bit more structure you need to put to it, and know how to manage it, but you see the idea. It is my bread and butter, to be honest - it affords my losses on just about everything else!

Again, not foolproof, beware the pullbacks and put your stop to b/e straight away.

 

[bw81]

I'm watching closely, there's something here?

Break below 16320 opens up 16250

The daily channel beneath around 16230 and the 16190 support are close enough together to make this a really good long if price reaches it. This would be ideal.

What do you think?

I concur with that lapa, 16230 is good for a long with 16190 as ultimate low. Its also the THIRD time in th last three trading days thats it will have hit a new low and its unusual to drive lower after THREE big drops without a pull back

 

[bw81]

Yes, exactly - from 3AM though not from yesterday pm - you want to see price very tight, in a small range and basically in low volume hours (ie., the movement when volume trading picks up come 6am or thereabouts makes a definitive move that carries)

Would have worked this morning, I didnt trade it cos my charts werent working

there's a bit more structure you need to put to it, and know how to manage it, but you see the idea. It is my bread and butter, to be honest - it affords my losses on just about everything else!

Again, not foolproof, beware the pullbacks and put your stop to b/e straight away.

ahhhh I see, got yah. Brilliant stuff that lapa, just been checking further back in time, and theres loads of consolidation periods during that time period. Nice one!!

 

[lapalabra]

Agree, I might play a retest from below of the break of 1.6320.

I don't understand what you mean by play a retest, Minch?

We break 16320 you go short to retest the lower daily level?

 

[bw81]

Thanks for the help on the currencies guys, Im trying to find a way into trading them but they scare the s*** out of me. So Im gonna watch closely and see if I can join in. Much appreciate you guys posting your live calls on the currencies so I can see how you handle them. Cheers!!

 

[minch]

I don't understand what you mean by play a retest, Minch?

We break 16320 you go short to retest the lower daily level?

If price breaks below 1.6320, not to play the breakout, but wait to see if price rises again to test the bottom of the channel from below, Support becoming resistance.


EDIT: Not sure wether im happy shorting into the round number 1.6300

 

[lapalabra]

ahhhh I see, got yah. Brilliant stuff that lapa, just been checking further back in time, and theres loads of consolidation periods during that time period. Nice one!!

Its awesome, investigate further.

The best way to think about it is that it affords you a free trade by getting in and putting your stop to b/e. There are pullbacks, but these can be opportunities to get in again in either direction as the consolidation takes place around key levels.

On the occasion where price trends and continues to trend in that direction for hours or the whole day, trail your stop and gather the pips.

On the occasion where it doesn't you lose nothing.

See how it works and set your own rules, but don't force it to happen, and don't trust any consolidation period if it aint tight or if there is even a hint of a trend in there somewhere. The first sign of a trend is the one that you should be jumping on with a confirmed move out of the range! Think of it in terms of a mini breakout, basically.

 

[lapalabra]

If price breaks below 1.6320, not to play the breakout, but wait to see if price rises again to test the bottom of the channel from below, Support becoming resistance.


EDIT: Not sure wether im happy shorting into the round number 1.6300

Ah OK Minch.

BW81, take heed of Minch and by all means check out my ideas, but remember I'm not an expert! Just searching for set ups and plays that make money, is all.

 

[bw81]

Brilliant head & shoulders on the DAX daily.

 

[lapalabra]

Not sure wether im happy shorting into the round number 1.6300

Thats a good point, hadn't thought of that. Maybe the Round Number Monster is on 4 July vacation?

EDIT: CABLE now having another shot at the 320.

 

[lapalabra]

I am short CABLE 16312 .... but that round number is worrying me

 

[bw81]

Thats a good point, hadn't thought of that. Maybe the Round Number Monster is on 4 July vacation?

EDIT: CABLE now having another shot at the 320.

its just dumped 30 points in seconds

 

[lapalabra]

Minch, you so have the right idea about playing the retest so close to 16300.

I am out for a few pips loss.

Will reenter on a pullback or break past 16300

16240 is the target

 

[bw81]

I am short CABLE 16312 .... but that round number is worrying me

if you take that range from 16429 to 16330 which its just broke away from you have to assume 16300 and below..

But Lapa watch that uptend line on the daily is coming into play at 16300. Uptrend lines tend to be more support than horizontal ones.

 

[minch]

Minch, you so have the right idea about playing the retest so close to 16300.

I am out for a few pips loss.

Will reenter on a pullback or break past 16300

16240 is the target

Yes its found support at 1.6300, Im waiting to see what happens at this level

 

[pentlow1]

Good morning. Does anyone have any thoughts on the FTSE today. I went short at 8.30 this morning at 4245, simply on the 10min looking over bought, which has worked out quite well so far, but i am frankly at a loss to know what to do now. I am tempted to hang on to the position, as in this quiet market i think the path of least resistance is down. That isnt very technical but i sometimes trade on gut feel.

 

[minch]

Yes its found support at 1.6300, Im waiting to see what happens at this level

Sh.t I wish I'd stayed in from 1.6400 :whistling

 

[lapalabra]

Sh.t I wish I'd of stayed in from 1.6400 :whistling

Damn, that would have been sweeeeeet.

 

[lapalabra]

I have to leave for a while, good trading guys

 

[masnachu]

Good morning. Does anyone have any thoughts on the FTSE today. I went short at 8.30 this morning at 4245, simply on the 10min looking over bought, which has worked out quite well so far, but i am frankly at a loss to know what to do now. I am tempted to hang on to the position, as in this quiet market i think the path of least resistance is down. That isnt very technical but i sometimes trade on gut feel.

Only just got back home , so I assume your out of the short now ?

Look at the 10min (Daily FTSE) , market hours , see that descending type wedge pattern ?

In future always be on the look out for that pattern in down trends , esp the FTSE , it likes them, its a sign that the bear move is or could be coming to an end.

other EG's Daily - Oct 10-27/08 , Jan 19-23/09.

and an example of the pattern failing Sep 01-19/1998.

Have been using it for years