TheBramble's Short-Term Spot FX Biases

EURAUD Targets at 2878, 2856, 2830 (which is now probably the most we can aim for in this session), but possibly 2805.
 
I know I did this voluntarily, but taking a live trade with someone watching you is just the same as taking a pee with someone watching you...time stands still....
 
TheBramble said:
I know I did this voluntarily, but taking a live trade with someone watching you is just the same as taking a pee with someone watching you...time stands still....
Click to expand...

I think it's an excellent lesson for all the readers.

Given the sheer number of crosses in forex, traders make ridiculous presumptions like :-

1) The cross they are on will be the one to deliver
2) The cross they are on is an instrument in isolation

I could go on, but I suspect there not much point.
 
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It’s always difficult after the exemplar Trading Masterclass we had yesterday to know how to follow it. So today, I’ve decided to take you down an alternate tree-lined avenue of trading and try and place one or possibly more trades which actually show us a bloody profit.

If today is also a stinker, tomorrow I will be explaining how to set up a trading signals vendor base in Queensland Australia.

Two trades (just the one if I’d been awake) yesterday, both on EURAUD. I was looking for Shorts. The first one I followed the price up up until I got a Short entry setup, but failed to adjust my stop in-line with my rising entry level. Stopped out 4 mins after entering trade. Although a ****-up, it was a blissfully swift coup de grace. The 2nd attempt allowed the market to taunt my stupidity for a further gruelling 6 hours before letting me know I still had the capacity to be a ****** and taking me out where I should have placed the stop on the first trade.

Couple of other things before I press on with today’s proto-debacle.

I’m not certain the 2nd trade wasn’t an attempt to show you that I could wrestle victory from a cocked-up 1st trade. It wasn’t a pristine entry signal. Thought I was beyond such things and possibly I am, but as I say, jury’s out on possible hubris.

Which brings me to the 2nd point. Hubris. Did this exercise a few years back when I realised I was totally magnificent and completely invincible, and the Gods punished me for my bravado by stringing me a series of class-A losing trades all executed with the finesse of a mentally retarded chimp. Taught me not to do live calls.

Reason for doing so yesterday (and today) was not to show off (fairly fuggin obviously!) but to simply share my methods and thought processes for debate and comment.
 
Currently looking for following opportunities:-

AUDJPY/AUDUSD – Shorts
EURAUD – Longs
EURCAD/EURGBP/EURJPY/EURUSD - Shorts
GBPCHF – Longs
GBPJPY/GBPUSD – Shorts
USDCAD/USDCHF – Longs
USDJPY – probably Shorts

EUR is weak, but not as weak as AUD. JPY is strongest followed by USD (hence the lack of commitment to USDJPY bias).
 
EURCAD Short at 2941. Stop 2981 which is a few pips above Daily Pivot and a super secret Fib that only me and Gann knew about. Risk 40 pips. 1st Target 2900.
 
Italian Consumer Confidence which is slated to be improved (always tutto posto) and EUR current account. There's absolutely no reason for anything positive to come out of these news releases, but that's not the point really. Due in just under 20 mins.
 
USDJPY showing tentative signs of a Short, but I'm disinclined to follow too enthusiastically at the moment.
 
GBP retail sales at 09:30 (London) all of which are expected to be lower (bad in principle for GBP). But given the disarming honesty of expectations I can't help wonder if there isn't room for being lower, but not AS low as expected?

I don't trade news on the basis of where I think it will push the price as that's a mugs' game. I just like to now what's coming in terms of potential volatility.
 
EURCAD moving stop down to 2965 (few pips above Yesterday's Frankfurt/London agreement). Risk reduced to 60% (24 pips).
 
I also got Short entry signals on EURJPY and GBPJPY, but I can't be ar!sed to handle three live and all inthe same counter currency.
 
A word on my Risk:position Size.

I trade a fixed % of total my total FX trading capital per trade. Whatever the initial stop is in terms of pips risked determines the size of my position. So I always know the absolute maximum I can lose on any trade.

I will reduce that risk when appropriate (as I have just done with EURCAD). When the price moves through an SR level I bring in my stop in and hide it behind a new lower/higher SR level, thus reducing Risk/locking in more profit.
 
v. interesting thread Tony - thanks - good to see you back in the fold
 
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