TheBramble's Short-Term Spot FX Biases

OK, jon would have perished too now, but he has the advanatge of having been smart enough not to have taken the trade.
 
barjon said:
Tony - looks like your stop was wise.
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Only if steams on up through what should have been my stop at 25….But I’m still only down the same % regardless of which stop I chose.

barjon said:
Initially I thought you were planning a sort of break out to new lows continuation? So I thought I'd look at it from my retracement perspective. Not quite sure where your actual entry sprang from.
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When I started posting about EURAUD it would have been only coincidentally a break out to new lows. Combination of factors for setup: trend, momentum (or lack thereof), potential SR level and price action. Didn’t come off that time as even with the correctly placed stop, with subsequent price action I’d still be now considering if I wanted to remain in the trade.


barjon said:
Sorry I littered your story though - shall I delete all mine?
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Of course not. A useful lesson to the kids – don’t try this at home!
 
EURAUD - Heed my command thou bastar!d pair!!!! Halt they advance, desist and turn thou at the level known by the number of it's name which is of the 25.

...or I'm going to lose all interest in this pair.....
 
Too much prediction in my view, to much bias, too much expectations.

Better to focus on demand and supply imbalances and jump on when that is evident.

Made my 10 pips, 2% , initial risk 5 pips.
 

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Mike Kshemaraja said:
Too much prediction in my view, to much bias, too much expectations.
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Thanks for your opinion. Bias is a function of trend. Expectations are more correctly awareness of potential entry and exit (targets) levels which are a function of Support and Resistance levels. Not sure what you considered as predictions.

Mike Kshemaraja said:
Better to focus on demand and supply imbalances and jump on when that is evident.
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OK. Great. How exactly do you monitor demand and supply imbalances and how does it evidence itself as a time to ‘jump’ on it?

Mike Kshemaraja said:
Made my 10 pips, 2% , initial risk 5 pips.
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Did you actually call that ahead of time with your reasons for entry, discuss your on-going trade management during the trade and define the basis you were going to exit upon all in real-time?
 
TheBramble said:
Thanks for your opinion. Bias is a function of trend. Expectations are more correctly awareness of potential entry and exit (targets) levels which are a function of Support and Resistance levels. Not sure what you considered as predictions.

OK. Great. How exactly do you monitor demand and supply imbalances and how does it evidence itself as a time to ‘jump’ on it?

Did you actually call that ahead of time with your reasons for entry, discuss your on-going trade management during the trade and define the basis you were going to exit upon all in real-time?
Click to expand...

1) No in my view Bias is not a function of trend, technicality is, bias is what you predicting is going to happen, and when it does not, you little head that created it is just going to be hit.

2) Takes time to master the demand and supply issues but doable if screen time is invested, also I do not think the 15m tf is suitable for that, 1 and 5m is better, because you are better able to see the struggle between the parts (bulls and bears) and when one joins the other to cover, creating the double pressure. I trade the 30seconds or the equivalent tick without the pipettes.

3) Not sure if I understand here.
Anyway, I risk 2% per trade based on 10 pips, my initial TP is always set at 10 pips.
My SL is placed just above/below the latest swing (average 7 pips) and trailed accordantly.
Some time if a double or triple bottom/top is formed I exit the trade without waiting for my TP to be reached or if I am 8/9 pips in the black and prices hit R/S, I am out.

Keep in mind, that I am only trying to help and I hope it did. If not, at least I was trying.

Done for the day. Ciao.
 
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Mike Kshemaraja said:
Keep in mind, that I am only trying to help and I hope it did.
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Well, I’ll be sure to keep that in mind to be sure.

It might have been helpful had you answered any of my questions rather than waffle on with idiosyncratic words and phrase which probably make no sense for good reason.

“bias is not a function of trend, technicality is,”. Ah right. Technicality. Of course. Good old technicality. Whatever that might be.

“bias is what you predicting is going to happen, and when it does not, you little head that created it is just going to be hit.” So you’re telling me that my view of bias determined by trend is quite wrong and causes me to predict things which will cause my little head to be hit. Right, thanks for that, guru.

“Takes time to master the demand and supply issues but doable if screen time is invested,”. Thought you might say something like that. I would have done too had I painted myself into a corner and had no option but to come out with some BS generalisation that don’t actually say anything.

“also I do not think the 15m tf is suitable for that, 1 and 5m is better, because you are better able to see the struggle between the parts (bulls and bears) and when one joins the other to cover, creating the double pressure. I trade the 30seconds or the equivalent tick without”. WTF! A masterpiece of word spaghetti. You’re now telling me MY trading TF is wrong for YOUR method (TBD)! “struggle between the parts (bulls and bears) and when one joins the other to cover - double pressure”. Complete gobbledegook.

“Not sure if I understand here.”. I was asking if you called the trades in real time and explained your potential entry criteria, potential exit levels and why and your in-trade management decisions. What’s not to understand? But I think we’ve got a clear picture now why you didn’t understand.

Mike, I’m please to share this thread with anyone who wants to contribute in similar manner, and although I can’t stop you, I’d appreciate you not posting any more of your old bollox in this thread. Cheers.
 
EURAUD setting up again for a possible Short entry. Yes I know my original trade would still be in play if I'd updated the stop prior to adjusted entry, but having been got out of the trade, I still need to wait for a valid re-entry. Rules is rules.

Entry likely sub-2900. Stop still currently 2950. If any eventual entry is well below the RN I'll revise down my stop prior to entry to, most likely, the 2925 level.
 
thebramble said:
well, i’ll be sure to keep that in mind to be sure.

It might have been helpful had you answered any of my questions rather than waffle on with idiosyncratic words and phrase which probably make no sense for good reason.

“bias is not a function of trend, technicality is,”. Ah right. Technicality. Of course. Good old technicality. Whatever that might be.

“bias is what you predicting is going to happen, and when it does not, you little head that created it is just going to be hit.” so you’re telling me that my view of bias determined by trend is quite wrong and causes me to predict things which will cause my little head to be hit. Right, thanks for that, guru.

“takes time to master the demand and supply issues but doable if screen time is invested,”. Thought you might say something like that. I would have done too had i painted myself into a corner and had no option but to come out with some bs generalisation that don’t actually say anything.

“also i do not think the 15m tf is suitable for that, 1 and 5m is better, because you are better able to see the struggle between the parts (bulls and bears) and when one joins the other to cover, creating the double pressure. I trade the 30seconds or the equivalent tick without”. Wtf! A masterpiece of word spaghetti. You’re now telling me my trading tf is wrong for your method (tbd)! “struggle between the parts (bulls and bears) and when one joins the other to cover - double pressure”. Complete gobbledegook.

“not sure if i understand here.”. I was asking if you called the trades in real time and explained your potential entry criteria, potential exit levels and why and your in-trade management decisions. What’s not to understand? But i think we’ve got a clear picture now why you didn’t understand.

Mike, i’m please to share this thread with anyone who wants to contribute in similar manner, and although i can’t stop you, i’d appreciate you not posting any more of your old bollox in this thread. Cheers.
Click to expand...

lol.
 
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AUDJPY initial Long stop at 78.40.

GBPJPY initial Long stop at 125.35.

Potential trades NOT entries.
 
GBPJPY still on the sidelines. EURJPY too (also for a Long) but the latter has a shedload of SR to get through for it o be safe the other side of 102. Any entry is likely to be on the upside of that.
 
TheBramble said:
EURAUD - Heed my command thou bastar!d pair!!!! Halt they advance, desist and turn thou at the level known by the number of it's name which is of the 25.

...or I'm going to lose all interest in this pair.....
Click to expand...

Ah, the old rage and hope technique :LOL: It listened though, look at it now.
 
EURAUD adjusted stop down to 25 as I won't be getting above the RN. Waiting for entry setup.
 
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