swingin' the ftse: 2008

[Glenn]

Anyone getting bad fills from IB on the Ftse Futures ?
I've just had a fill on a scalp at 13:11:53 which was 5 points away from the quoted 1-point spread (well before the madness at 13:21)
Had similar bad fills on two other days in the past fortnight - again when volty was normal.
I managed a profit on all three but it's not pleasant starting a scalp so far underwater !
Glenn

 

[black bear]

Pinbar spotted

hiya pinky - knew you couldn't resist for long

fun innit

good trading

jon

Jon

"good trading"

pass, I am in the wait for the bounce camp Jon, I have a feeling your 1st cont of trend might be a good un ye honest, don"t tell anyone! till then

just a watcher

My little account needs its hard stops over the 3 mins Jon and errrrrrrrrrr not comfortable with that one in these conditions.

Let the big boys have their Fun, its only once a decade, sure they will leave us or me a bit of cake when they have had their fill

Hope your in Jon from the change of trend if not Ill see you in a couple of days, see you then anyway when you add :clap:

The Indians are ready to go, brand new kit

look at that jon, call TD thats deffo a pin 1pm its an hour thats a bit of a stop even for TD, he will just have to go down to minutes :clap:

 

[black bear]

Anyone getting bad fills from IB on the Ftse Futures ?
I've just had a fill on a scalp at 13:11:53 which was 5 points away from the quoted 1-point spread (well before the madness at 13:21)
Had similar bad fills on two other days in the past fortnight - again when volty was normal.
I managed a profit on all three but it's not pleasant starting a scalp so far underwater !
Glenn

my book looks very gappy Glenn (all day), (not IB) and have not traded

Not brave enough or experienced enough, I now its the same but

 

[black bear]

Swings are

up and down

and plenty of them

 

[10pips]

[deleted comment]

 

[black bear]

How many of you fellas went long from 5,300? This is my second chance i blown of not entering long!

Last one was mid last 2007 when footsie crashed down to 5,700 from 6600

 

[Dinos]

How many of you fellas went long from 5,300? This is my second chance i blown of not entering long!

Last one was mid last 2007 when footsie crashed down to 5,700 from 6600

Have been long and short throughtout the period, however, as I only day trade the ftse, longer term trend doesn't bother me, I trade what I see on the timeframes I use

 

[tomorton]

How many of you fellas went long from 5,300? This is my second chance i blown of not entering long!

Last one was mid last 2007 when footsie crashed down to 5,700 from 6600

I have done some long-side day trades since the low on 22/01 but would not like to hold overnight against such a strong primary trend, with the volatility we have seen.
Using the 22/01 daily high as entry and the low as stop gives a massive potential draw-down. Where is your stop? Trailing?

I would be happy to go short in a small way today / tonight and hold over weekend if FTSE and Dow are weak later but would have to use a tight stop.

 

[black bear]

Ftse day chart as printed 3 up days

The Dow closed weak on its lows

Breach of low on monday would be continuation of trend signal

Should be noted that all up days were achieved by gap opens, todays was closed but not with any gusto.

Have a good Weekend all

 

[tomorton]

Not surprised to see S&P ran into resistance from March and August 07. The major US indices printed 25/01 as a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, all closed very near daily lows. FTSE candlestick is dark cloud cover, with little penetration into 24/01's body, but I put this down to the time difference as we closed ahead of NY, the US continued to fall after our close and I expect London to complete its own 2-day bearish engulfing pattern Monday am. I am short from late 25/01 pm on FTSE.

 

[barjon]

First chart: Here we are then. The three bar swingers may have their chance to join the party with a potential short entry around 5845. Unfortunately the post ftse close weakness across the pond points to a downward gap opening and that price may prove elusive. Much may depend on peoples' gap strategies. Tomo will be laughing though

Second chart: Aside from the fact that I'd have preferred to see the last candle as a up one, the set-up looks almost too perfect. Reducing volume in the retracement and the turn coming virtually smack on fib50% and near the 6000 resistance and key number. Many three bar swingers who incorporate fibs will have gone short in anticipation as Friday's action dropped back below the open with at least a part position. They might be laughing along with tomo

good trading

jon

 

[black bear]

More Charts Jon

Plain charts month down to 1 hr

Charts by IG cash


Day - 1hr in up trend, HH - HL yellow fib marks key levels on their retractment, will be obvious if no follow through IMO 50% and goldon one are at or in location of manual S&R also

Will short (1% trade on forward month cash) if gap closed on any weakness and see how it goes intra day.

If gap not closed its gone without me and will stay on intra day trades (scalps only)


Wall St month there for they are a little stronger than they look IMO We are under our last big Top they are on

no...................................ooooooooooooooooooo! Support, that can"t be right:-0


Good luck all :clover: and hope charts look pretty

 

[tomorton]

Thinking about a suitable chart style to visualise anticipated 'morning after' catch-up action by FTSE with Dow/S&P trading after London close. I suppose a simple 2-3 day candlestick chart might be the minimum design required, with catch-up section highlighted. Theory is that if we can see (or anticipate) the US candlestick pattern we can see what FTSE needs to do to convert from what it looked like on closing to match NY asap after its re-opening. Anyone doing this already though?

 

[black bear]

Normal Pivot points work well IMO

Thinking about a suitable chart style to visualise anticipated 'morning after' catch-up action by FTSE with Dow/S&P trading after London close. I suppose a simple 2-3 day candlestick chart might be the minimum design required, with catch-up section highlighted. Theory is that if we can see (or anticipate) the US candlestick pattern we can see what FTSE needs to do to convert from what it looked like on closing to match NY asap after its re-opening. Anyone doing this already though?

Hi tomorton

In normal market conditions

Normal Pivot points work well IMO, just couple"d with location to wk H or L day H or L, you get pretty good judging where they should be, or if/when a move starts, where its going to etc

Very often good trades just jump off the page at you (in balences between the 2 indexs) usually the Ftse is the wrong side = thats where its reputation for being more range bound comes from IMO (2 days in every 1)

Next day Dow Fut are suportive but how hard are they traded pre-market ? if they are strong I am looking to Short and vice versa depending on Index position/location

I do not use the pivot points on there own to trade off just a sort of map to see where we are and compare

The ftse just overreacts to everything IMO and pivots highlight this because they are based of fixed ref points

H L and C, you can include O if you want, but I don"t bother

I find they help anyway, but have used them for ages.

Using Pivot Points for Predictions

hope above helps, you would need to watch for a week or two in more normal trading conditions in order to make your mind up and have a chance of seeing the benefit

dont do candles so .....

 

[timsk]

FTSE Week 4

Let's go for the hatrick. There's just enough momentum left in the current column of 14 red 'O's to extend down another 2 boxes to test support at 5825.

Status: BEARISH
Support: 5350 (horizontal red line)
Resistance : 5950 (horizontal dotted green line)
Well, no hatrick and rather more momentum left in the downside move than anyone could have anticipated! Last week's column of 14 red 'O's more than doubled in length to end up 35 strong. This is unprecedented, as is the current column of 24 bloo 'X's. In the current state of extreme volatility, traditional concepts such as support and resistance become less reliable, making it difficult to interpret the P&F chart with any confidence. The daily bar chart is in a similar state of flux, but does offer a few additional clues. Although Wednesday through to Friday last week all printed higher daily highs and higher lows, two of the three days were down days. Additionally, as Jon noted, volume dropped off, none of which is very encouraging for the bulls. And the P&F chart remains distinctly bearish, in spite of the current column of bloo 'X's. It's funny to think that if Soc Gen's rogue trader had applied simple P&F analysis to underpin his decision making, he might not be in the little pickle he's in right now! The P&F chart has, after all, been consistently bearish since 17/12/07, a picture that is mirrored - more or less - on the CAC, DAX and Eurostoxx.

Tim.

 

[barjon]

mmm, gap opening as expected and you'd have been hard pressed to get better than 5825 or so. There was a second chance for those day trading when 5800 finally bit the dust around 10am. I took neither, but I've got a few shares in play now.

good trading

jon

 

[tomorton]

Well, Part 1 of the plan worked well enough - short from Friday pm profitable though the volatility around 8 o'clock was so uncomfortable I let a lot of profit go back into the market. Grrrrrrr.....

Short now in anticipation of today being a red day and confirming Friday as swing high and looking to add to position as we reach London close if this confirmed by weak Dow.

PinkPig - thanks for pointing me towards pivot points - one of those things I've heard of and confess to having under-researched and probably would not have thought of in this context. I will look into it though.

Interesting that Kerviel was supposed to be up near the end of 2007 and let it all slip away, big time. Or is it all a conspiracy..... to conceal Soc Gen's sub-prime damage?

 

[black bear]

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm"mmmmmm

Dow open will be interesting

we are out the bottom of S2 pivots and well under P day low, no gusto and stopped dead at golden one and manual S&R pt, inviting gap under but no one interested in testing it yet

Dow well just ontop of its Low @ +S1

Hope its weak or there could be a scramble for the exit

 

[tomorton]

Well, that was an interesting day.

Both Dow and FTSE made red days, making 25/01 a swing high, but the Dow finished like a rocket in the opposite direction. So, I don't trust the swing sell signal here - the Dow made a bullish piercing candlestick pattern and closed within a pont of its high: the FTSE gave up well below the same comparative level but still managed to print a bullish hammer. Although volume on both was low, I suspect the price action today has neutralised the bearish swing signal. Not only that, I am long on the FTSE, hoping it will try to replicate the Dow's candlestick pattern with a move upwards towards London's open of 25/01. That represents about 160 points up so there's plenty of headroom. I don't think it will make it but there's plenty of space for an early profit tomorrow, possibly I could even close the Fins SB before 8 (should have done that today to avoid the opening volatility).

 

[tomorton]

Pleased to see FTSE made a good rise Tuesday trying to ctach up with the Dow. Petered out well before my 160pts target but not surprised about that - we are still in a bear trend after all and buying volumes have been thin.

The Dow pushed upwards and peaked just above the high of 25/01, also in top 10% of Tuesday's range, suggesting further rises Wednesday. The weak showing by the FTSE suggests London will (at least at first) try to push up towards 5973.1, 88 points above where we are now. I am long FTSE overnight now though don't expect anything like 88 points, do expect to be out by midday as Dow could be jittery ahead of Fed action.

Best wishes