Swingin' the ftse 2010

[barjon]

Happy New Year everyone, let's hope it's a prosperous one.

I'm out and about at the moment and will do a start year post next week. In the meantime p'raps tommo could put up monthly, weekly and daily charts from sharescope which will look a bit different to mine since I'm still using prorealtime who insist on obeying LSE rule of todays close = tomorrows open.

good trading

jon

 

[Splitlink]

Happy New Year, you Swingers!

 

[tomorton]

Happy New Year Jon and all the other FTSE Swingers. I can't wait to get back into this game, well done to Jon for kicking off the thread again for everyone's benefit and guidance. Some charts will follow - daily, swing, standard colouring, with swing 'legs' marked, plus 8RSI(Simple), 14 and 50EMA
daily, candlestick, 14 and 50EMA
weekly, swing, standard colouring, 50EMA

 

[Mr. G]

Happy and prosperous New Year to Jon, Tom and all on this thread .

Thanks Jon for kicking off another iteration of the Swingin' thread.

I look forward to learning and contributing this year.

 

[barjon]

Thanks, Tom, for posting up the starting charts - maybe we can explore them a bit later on.

In the meantime here's my daily chart and depending on how you regarded the failed signal at point 5 (which would have closed off your trades from 3 and 4 if you hadn't already gone) you will have started the year with a long running from Dec 10/11 @ around 5250.

Nice start for those of you in - I'm not

Good trading

jon

 

[tomorton]

Anyone done a review of FTSE swinging signals 2009? Final score?
I will be doing am review later for 14EMA momentum swing trades and will post tonight I hope.

 

[tomorton]

Anyone done a review of FTSE swinging signals 2009? Final score?
I will be doing am review later for 14EMA momentum swing trades and will post tonight I hope.

2009 review of 14EMA momentum swing trades (enter on second consecutive close on same side of 14EMA, ignoring the more ambiguous or contradictory two-day candlestick patterns).

26 signals: 9 were contradictory and ignored: 16 trades available: 1 still running (in profit), 8 closed in the money.

Using safe exit level of first profitable close back on wrong side of 14EMA, net gain = +767pts
Applying best possible net gain = +2,014pts

8 out of 15 trades doesn't sound impressive (53%). But this score is exactly consistent with my longer-term study over 70 months Oct 03 to July 09 (50/93 trades). But I like the limited losses on the losers: as the entries tend to be trend-following, losses on the losers are counter-trend and therefore tend to be self-limiting.

Rules for entry -

Long: Look for first two consecutive closes above 14EMA. Allot 1 point score for each of the following criteria -

C1 > O1 (shows positive momentum during Day 1)
C1 > (H1-L1) / 2 (close above mid-point of range shows price pressure sustained and likely to continue)
C2 > O2 (shows positive price momentum continuing during Day 2)
C2 > C1 (uptrend confirmed)
C2 > H1 (strong uptrend, price outperforming)
C2 > (H2-L2) / 2 (close above mid-point of range shows price pressure
sustained and likely to continue)
H2 > H1 (uptrend confirmed)
L2 > L1 (uptrend confirmed)
Ignore scores of 5/8 or less. Initial stop is L1. Final profit target is first profitable Close below 14EMA.

For shorts, look for closes below 14EMA, reverse the symbols shown above, use H1 as stop.

Must get on.

 

[barjon]

tom

Here's a chart notated with the results. I count as a minor gain when I can get 1:1 since I close half there. I didn't do all of these, of course!!

There were 4 trend changes and those who play the changes would have added around 1700 points more although two - amounting to around 300 points - were very iffy and would have relied on stop placement.

good trading

jon

 

[barjon]

ps: not a particularly good year - mainly down to that steady rise without a 3 bar retracement!!

 

[tomorton]

Good report thanks Jon. Not a great year, as you say - I found so difficult that I had to get interested in alternative signals, and the long steady rise from the summer without major retracements was horribly frustrating.

Overall results using both safe and more speculative approach favour the 14EMA/2-day candlestick pattern over the three bar retracement. I can't ignore the potential and will have to put money in for 2010. I hope to get the chance soon to backtest this on other indices etc. and will report.

Cheers for now.

 

[tomorton]

14EMA 2 candlestick pattern backtest on Dow, 2009 -
24 of these patterns occurred in 2009, just 12 scored 6 or more out of 8 and would have been traded.
9 of these 12 trades show as profitable, making conservative estimate +2,561pts.

 

[tomorton]

PS: Dow backtest: ignores patterns scoring 6+ that are contrary to an already open position or which would simply repeat the signal foran open position.

 

[Mr. G]

Good stuff Tom - thanks for sharing this.

This method looks for moves up and down through the 14EMA for longs & shorts, right?

Out of interest, how much difference is there between the EMA and the SMA?

 

[tomorton]

Good stuff Tom - thanks for sharing this.

This method looks for moves up and down through the 14EMA for longs & shorts, right?

Out of interest, how much difference is there between the EMA and the SMA?

Yes it does. You allocate points score according to the strength of the pattern, and this seems to obviate the need to determine trend direction.
There is always a little difference on the most recent form of the MA vetewen EMA and SMA but very little. I suspect the key thing is to always use one or the other consistently.
By the way, there is nothing special about 14 day period - I am sure 13 or 15 would produce identical results. System based on longer MAs would obviously produce far fewer signals. Again, I suspect the key is to be consistent with trading style across various markets - so I would not use 14EMA for this method on the FTSE and 50EMA for this method on the Dow.

 

[Mr. G]

Yes it does. You allocate points score according to the strength of the pattern, and this seems to obviate the need to determine trend direction.
There is always a little difference on the most recent form of the MA vetewen EMA and SMA but very little. I suspect the key thing is to always use one or the other consistently.
By the way, there is nothing special about 14 day period - I am sure 13 or 15 would produce identical results. System based on longer MAs would obviously produce far fewer signals. Again, I suspect the key is to be consistent with trading style across various markets - so I would not use 14EMA for this method on the FTSE and 50EMA for this method on the Dow.

Makes sense, thanks. I would suspect that an EMA would work better than a SMA if you were using a longer tf given the weighting to recent activity on the EMA.

 

[Andronichuk]

Hi all, I myself am not a swing trader...
infact I am not 100% how to class my trading technique... luck and faith is probably the best way to describe it lol.

Anyway, I am not sure what use this may be to you, but I try to look at markets using Elliott Wave analysis, and because I am quite new to both EW and Technical Analysis in general, I am trying to get people to give me feedback on my work so as to improve my own trading and learn from their experience....


If any of you have any interest in taking the occational glance at my stuff, feel free to visit my blog:

http://elliotticians.blogspot.com/


Or my videos which I do about twice a week...
the latest is :

All comments are VERY welcome, thanks.

Happy New Year and Happy Trading.


Max Andronichuk

 

[tomorton]

Hi Max - Nice video with some good TA, though I am not a convert to Elliott Wave theory. (On the other hand, if, as I do, you believe market price behaviour is a human construct, not a purely economic one, EW and Fibonacci are more acceptable: the Fibonacci ratio is seen in countless representations of human behaviour in whch the number itself has much less relevance than in the markets, so I'm not totally anti-EW).

I don't wish to seem too challenging to you personally (I appreciate you're making a start in this work, and I have subscribed to your YouTube channel), but I just don't encounter EW theorists making great successes with EW in practice - and its the bottom line - and only the bottom line - that counts.

 

[Andronichuk]

Hi Max - Nice video with some good TA, though I am not a convert to Elliott Wave theory. (On the other hand, if, as I do, you believe market price behaviour is a human construct, not a purely economic one, EW and Fibonacci are more acceptable: the Fibonacci ratio is seen in countless representations of human behaviour in whch the number itself has much less relevance than in the markets, so I'm not totally anti-EW).

I don't wish to seem too challenging to you personally (I appreciate you're making a start in this work, and I have subscribed to your YouTube channel), but I just don't encounter EW theorists making great successes with EW in practice - and its the bottom line - and only the bottom line - that counts.

Thats a fair point, and I take it with a pinch of salt. I personally am not 100% convinced myself by some of the conclusions of certain wave theorists (Prechter)...

I myself am not really a very experienced analyst, so still learning... I may end up dropping Elliott Wave Theory if I don't see a convincing benefit of using it, so still open minded.


Thanks for subscribing, please feel free to tell me your views on the market or my techniques in general. I'm trying to develop my own technique from utilising the knowledge of more experienced traders, so all feedback is very welcome.

Have a great weekend,


Max

 

[Mr. G]

A question for the weekend.

Is today, by a gnats wotist, the 3rd down day after the high of the 11th and a putative swing low?

 

[tomorton]

A question for the weekend.

Is today, by a gnats wotist, the 3rd down day after the high of the 11th and a putative swing low?

Yes, I take it as day 3 (by 0.5pts) and therefore a putative swing low, in an uptrend. I can't see us going up on Monday however to confirm this, with the poor US showing today and their holiday coming up.