swingin' the ftse: 2008

[porph]

yeh, fortunately as an accountant here i never have to take responsiblity for any problems..

 

[barjon]

hi guys,

back from a break today (what a day to choose - orders rejected, then the exchange collapse, then a useless day sitting on hands waiting for them to fix it )

Anyway, here's a rather belated update. Anyone with a residual long position would have gone at break even on Thursday but everyone should have made a useful bit in the trade. Given today's sharp rise I don't think I'll regard Friday's breach of the swing low as a change in the swing trend just yet.

wolf waves, tommo, whatever next

good trading

jon

 

[tomorton]

Chelski - Yes, my long closed early this pm was the order placed Friday on the 3-day unfilled gap reversal.

Of course, we have an even more obvious gap now below today's low and this demands a sell order tonight, which I will leave until Thursday close. I don't expect it to be triggered but it will cost me nothing to have it in reserve.

 

[tomorton]

Bad luck Jon - lost day like this one very annoying: today is 12th largest rise in FTSE in my Sharescope Gold records (from Jan 94) and best day for more than 5 years.

From here, I am obviously more than interested to see if Wolfe follows through on this and we get a higher swing high, then crash to 5000. Or if more conventional TA points correctly to a lower swing high and a more controlled descent.

 

[barjon]

Bad luck Jon - lost day like this one very annoying: today is 12th largest rise in FTSE in my Sharescope Gold records (from Jan 94) and best day for more than 5 years.

From here, I am obviously more than interested to see if Wolfe follows through on this and we get a higher swing high, then crash to 5000. Or if more conventional TA points correctly to a lower swing high and a more controlled descent.

Even worse, Tom. I'd sneaked onto mum-in-law's computer Friday evening to duck out of birthday chatter (she was 90!!) and played a small spreadbet on ftse following dow rise to its close. Then, mindful of split's black swans, I closed the damn thing and missed the lovely opening this am.

Not sure old wolfe could have catered for the Fannie Mae news but stranger things have happened!!

good trading

jon

 

[Splitlink]

Even worse, Tom. I'd sneaked onto mum-in-law's computer Friday evening to duck out of birthday chatter (she was 90!!) and played a small spreadbet on ftse following dow rise to its close. Then, mindful of split's black swans, I closed the damn thing and missed the lovely opening this am.

Not sure old wolfe could have catered for the Fannie Mae news but stranger things have happened!!

good trading

jon

Did I hear my name mentioned?

You did well to get out. It would have gone down like lead this morning if the news of Fanny Mae had not come out and with the deep stops you weekend traders put on it could have cost you.......

Mindful of possible nasty falls following a week of falls, I opted for a quiet weekend. To be truthful, I never expected to be confronted by a Black Swan but it just goes to show.

I haven't bothered to look at the EOD, yet. Might as well wait until tomorrow.

Good night

Split

 

[tomorton]

Jon, I also think you did right by getting out of the long Friday, but for different reasons to Split - sure, you missed the profit from the long, but trying to call a bottom probably causes more losses to more traders than anything else.

I also did expect the FTSE to rise today - the US had got ahead of the FTSE on Friday evening after our close - the S&P ended showing a hammer after a sharp downtrend, confirmed and improved by the Dow and Nasdaq - the S&P had even found support on the June and July 06 and July 08 levels.

But the market had not reversed, the trend had not changed, we did not have a swing low, so it was not wrong to await confirmation. This one got away but a good strategy outbalances the missed opportunities over the long term.

 

[tomorton]

I'm not buying this rally. For me, the swing low 05/09, coming in below the previous of 21/08, broke the uptrend, though it would take a swing high lower than 29/08 before I suggested we were in a downtrend. So, short-termism seems the order of the day.

As we are below the 14MA I intend to take advantage of the price buoyancy and place a sell order tonight below wherever the spreadbetting book closes. I hope it will be triggered Sunday night or on Monday as price retreats. As we look like having a buying Friday in the US, there is a good risk the markets will continue upwards on Monday, in which case the sell will not be triggered - that's one reason for not entering a sell trade, leaves a margin of error. If the sell is triggered I look to exit by the close.

 

[dailytrader81]

Help

Hi,
I started spreadbetting last week. I left the trade open which I am worried now. I put a sell on 5367. Hopefully ftse will go down on monday so that I will be able to close that. Any views about ftse on monday. Dow closed down on friday.

 

[Geofract]

Hi,
I started spreadbetting last week. I left the trade open which I am worried now. I put a sell on 5367. Hopefully ftse will go down on monday so that I will be able to close that. Any views about ftse on monday. Dow closed down on friday.

In out of hours trading the FTSE closed at 5424. Hope you had a stop!

 

[Splitlink]

Hi,
I started spreadbetting last week. I left the trade open which I am worried now. I put a sell on 5367. Hopefully ftse will go down on monday so that I will be able to close that. Any views about ftse on monday. Dow closed down on friday.

Well, apart from the usual stuff you probably know already ("Yuh shouldna' dunnit") at present I see that this is on a RS line at about 5420 and could, quite easily, fall from resistance (I'm looking at a 30' chart and it looks spikey to me) but, from your open of 5367, you are a long way away from home!

If it does fall, I would not be in a hurry to close out but I would not let it go any higher than the recent high. In the meantime, once decided, forget it and have a good weekend, there's nothing that you can do until Monday!

Split

 

[Geofract]

Hi,
I started spreadbetting last week. I left the trade open which I am worried now. I put a sell on 5367. Hopefully ftse will go down on monday so that I will be able to close that. Any views about ftse on monday. Dow closed down on friday.

In out of hours trading the FTSE closed at 5424. Hope you had a stop!

Apologies, I should have been more helpful! I would take Splitlinks advice.

Ollie

 

[dailytrader81]

But do you guys think on monday ftse will go down or up accorging to US market news. Even if it goes up during whole day ftse move up and down so I think I should keep watching my screen on monday and as soon as It will come near 5360 i will close the trade.

 

[Geofract]

But do you guys think on monday ftse will go down or up accorging to US market news. Even if it goes up during whole day ftse move up and down so I think I should keep watching my screen on monday and as soon as It will come near 5360 i will close the trade.

I would say fall, but nobody knows for sure.

 

[Splitlink]

But do you guys think on monday ftse will go down or up accorging to US market news. Even if it goes up during whole day ftse move up and down so I think I should keep watching my screen on monday and as soon as It will come near 5360 i will close the trade.

If it comes down that far it would be justifying the reason you opened a short position in the first place, wouldn't it? Why close then, after all the agony you've gone through?

See, a lot of the time that a guy enters a trade, gets caught and then sees a recovery which is unexpected, he's so pleased that he's got most of his money back, or maybe, a profit, that he closes the trade and is as happy as Larry.

Another point. Where you are thinking of closing, now, at 5420, there could be lot of stops going to trigger which will send the market higher because previous sellers are buying to close stop losses, buyers who bought in lower down are taking profits and new traders are out there waiting for that to happen so that they can short at good prices. Which begs the question "Why did you short where you did, instead of where you are now? Don't you think that the buyers might have come in at that level and that they might taking some profits now?

Sorry, can't help with the news.

Split

 

[Lee Shepherd]

dailytrader81,

Mate, close the trade at market open, or as soon as you can if spreadbetting this can be done sunday night at midnight.

You dont know whats going to happen and to wait for it to come back to breakeven to close out is a big no no. You dont know what you are doing and if any doubt reigns over the trade it should be immediately closed. Then you can relax and review the situation and look for a better entry, regardless if the market does come back to your breakeven level.

Traders dont sit in hope, you had no stop loss policy here, if you did, you wouldn't be holding it now wondering what to do next, rabbit in a headlight springs to mind. It's gone far enough, how much further are you going to allow it to go offside.

Consider this as an email message from your manager.

Cancel the trade at the next immediate opportunity or find yourself another job.

 

[dailytrader81]

Thanks for your help lee. Around 7pm it came down to 5677 and I should have closed down that time and just lost 10 points but i thought it might touch 5367 then it started going back to 5400 level Each day even if market open positive it always go down a bit so I will close below 5400.

 

[Lee Shepherd]

Thanks for your help lee. Around 7pm it came down to 5677 and I should have closed down that time and just lost 10 points but i thought it might touch 5367 then it started going back to 5400 level Each day even if market open positive it always go down a bit so I will close below 5400.

You're not learning here mate.

What if it dont go back down to 5400, then what?????

Hope that it goes back down to 5500, 5600, maybe, I dont know, what I do know that if there is any doubt, get out. Like I said, there is no stop loss policy here so the trade should be immediately cancelled to allow you to review how you got here in the first place.

Traders dont live in hope, newbies do and you are trading like one. You could be right on this occassion and it could go back down but, what if it dont or maybe next time it don't. This is a bad habit shown by bad traders and they dont last long, if you come out of this one with profit it will give you no reason at all to do it next time.

Stops are there for a reason, to preserve capitol, this is the first and major rule in trading.

Somehow I doubt you'll listen to me, but hey, what do I know.

 

[Splitlink]

Thanks for your help lee. Around 7pm it came down to 5677 and I should have closed down that time and just lost 10 points but i thought it might touch 5367 then it started going back to 5400 level Each day even if market open positive it always go down a bit so I will close below 5400.

Whatever happens on Monday morning cannot be controlled if you haven't a stop in place. Like I said before, if you shorted at 5367, why are you closing if the price goes down there, again?

What was the reason for you opening the trade? If you don't know then, like Lee says, close the trade and

1. Don't take another trade without reasoning why you are doing it and

2. Put a stop where you know that the trade is not going how you want and where you can afford to take a loss.

If you leave trades on overnight you should be watching daily bars. You should not be putting stops inside, some say the average length of them, but I go for more than that. In fact, I don't like overnight index trading very much. Now here you are, 50 odd points away and unhappy. I'd say that that is normal stuff for overnight swing trading. If you don't like that, take a shorter time frame or lower trade size.

Split

 

[timsk]

Traders dont live in hope . . .

Hi all,
It's been a while - just looking in to say 'hello'.
Reading Lee's comments reminds me of a conversation I had with Mr. Charts when I was new and very green about the gills. I remember him telling me that for traders, 'hope' and 'wish' are really disgustingly foul four letter words; MUCH worse and more offensive than the 'c' word is to normal folk. And how right he is. Six years on, I still find myself 'hoping' and 'wishing' which is why I know I still have a lot to learn and loads more work to do and why I can't honestly hold my head high and call myself professional - yet! It's a good acid test to distinguish between professional traders and shoot from the hip gamblers. The words 'wish' and 'hope' simply don't feature in the professional trader's vocabulary.

Tim.