Some of my trades, forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Re: USD/CHF update

Today, that 1.0930 target was hit. Today's low is actually 1.0929, at least as of this writing. Ironically my DS3 1.0937. Either the top of the weekly cloud contains this fall, or we are in for a quick drop to 1.0638. There could be a move down to 1.0900. Regardless, and I think this is a good time to clarify this, cloud containment means any close above it in that timeframe. Another words, as long as the week finishes above 1.0930, the cloud did its job.

Current level is 1.1426. The 1.1349 objective was hit yesterday, right on the nose. Next leg DOWN will take the pair to 1.1284. Next levels will be the weekly kijun at 1.1166, and containment, which is the combination kijun and top of the cloud at 1.0930. From there we could be looking at a 1,000point rise, but not confirmed yet.

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Re: GBP/USD update

I didn't mean that comment in complaining. My trade did spin around on a dime. The only problem is it fell off while spinning. I'm still holding it. Containment is 1.5046. If it is not, there will still be a strong bounce there. I'll probably double up at that point. The only thing that will prevent this from being the consumate trade is if we get the bounce, then it reverses with a strong leg, and then takes off to the 1.52 level. I won't ride this that far. I will see momentum waning, and I'll be out with at least a net gain.
Whew! I'm glad I got out when I did on the aussie.

I'm having a hard job understanding this. Earlier today, you said you took a short at 1.4931.

Where is your net gain?

It closed today at 1.5059-5061 on my platform. I can see a bounce from here is a possibility, but it's not a given is it?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: GBP/USD update

Montmorency, I did get sloppy with the wording, so thanks for bringing my attention to it.
Let's say worse case scenario prevails, and we get only a bounce from here. The 1-hour chart is busting at the seams, and I won't know where my dalies are at until the bell rings for the new week, but there is not much support on the way down. That bounce is going to take the price to 1.4979. Let's say at that point I detemine it's going back up. I'll take the trade out at the 1.4977 mark. The 1st trade will be -46pips. The 2nd trade will be +69 pips, so the net is +23 pips.
That is the worse case scenario. My only concern that I have that we are back in the DOWN is that price action has worked its way above the cloud on the daily. Therefore, and if we get any momentum to start the DOWN, watch for 1.4875. That will be key.
Nothing is a given in forex. Price did extend one pip over my MR2a at 1.5074. I thought the WR2 at 1.5046 would have been good enough. Still the MR2a is reasonable, because it is still less than 38% between my refeemce points, and it was a clean bounce off of MR2a.

I'm having a hard job understanding this. Earlier today, you said you took a short at 1.4931.

Where is your net gain?

It closed today at 1.5059-5061 on my platform. I can see a bounce from here is a possibility, but it's not a given is it?

 

[Masonz]

Dude, you are amazing! That call on the swissy you made was on your blog last month. Yesterday it closes 4 pips below your final target at 1.0930.
How did you call the spin on aussie? I'm getting on the computer and found you jumped ship, and you got out about 15 pips above where it bottomed. Then you got me scrambling to my platform to close the trade. I still had about 50 pips.
Hey, I plotted your yearlies for kiwi on my chart then applied the fibs to it. It bounced off the 26% mark. Does that mean it is going to .7253?
Does your short entry on GBP/USD have anything to do with the YS1 being hit. I know you say it loses its elacity (One of your big words you use that I don't know how to say. I probably didn't even spell it right.). If that caps it, then are we headed to 1.3841?
Sorry for all the questions. I am trying to keep up with the infinite depth of that brain of yours.

 

[4xpipcounter]

The swissy was pretty easy. Stochs were very OB and the kijun was setting on top of the cloud. The insane thing is it never moved the whole trip down the hill.
The funny thing about aussie is that I was not counting on it to bounce as hard as it did. I saw the candle pass just a little on the other side of my WS2. I got so tired of seeing that position on my platform, I decided to pull it. That was my whole thinking.
We got to stop hanging out together. I was getting ready to post an S&R chart on the NZD/USD, and you got it exactly right. There will be a pullback to start the week. Use the 23% mark (That is the correct Fibo. I get it mixed up too.) as your support, and then it should go the rest of the way to .7253.
Excellent call on cable! I did not look at my yearlies when I made the call. I just had some obviations right in front of me. I will also post a chart on cable.
Those were excellent questions. No need to be sorry. Infinite depth!? Pleeeease. Numbers and pips and my brain stops there. What a coincidence! My wife is painting the playroom. I offered to help her, but she does not trust me with a paintbrush. So, Tucker and me are left in the cave.

 

[4xpipcounter]

NZD/USD yearly S&R's

Zeph made the observation about this pair with regards to my S&R's as to where it is headed.
First, all my S&R's are figured before that timed event, and not after it, so it is not hind vision I'm using. My S&R's are propietary and my pride and joy. They are available for any pair any timezone if you ask. This will only be a prelude to some upcoming posts I'm going to make concerning my S&R's.
Just like in my D,W,M, there will be at least 2 levels that are going to be hit thoughout the year on my yearlies. The Fibos I draw are between the reference points of my S&R's, namely the YP and the YS1, and the YP and the YR1. I really didn't need to do them towards the YR1 only because that is unexplored territory so far this year. The P is the pivot or the open for the year. I'll use this chart as my 1st example when I get into my series on the S&R's.
For now, let's look ahead, considering that is what transpaency and excellent forecasting is all about:
Current pirce is .7139. It is currently about half between the YP and the 23% retracement of the YP and YS1, which is .6991. This was an impulsive move (Did not mean to steal a term from EW, but nevertheless, that is what it was.) that pushed price over the 23% level. Therefore, what we will see are daily closes above .6991 until at least .7253 has been touched.
The LT trend has been DOWN. I like using the stochastics as a momentum indicator, adn it is clear which way it is headed. The cloud looking into the future is also bearish. We also have not had a complete cyclical move within reference points. I use those semantics a lot. Simply put, the distance from the YP to YS1 to YS2, and vice versa is 1,112 pips. Once the YP has been touched, then we should get the move to the YS1 at .6141. The Fibo points between reference points will always be supports on the way down. The reason it is to beleive that the YS1 is going to be hit before the YR1 is momentum and the current big trend. Also the original move that way failed at the 61% level. Notice how perfectly those levels were hit.
This is another beautiful thing about my S&R's. They are so mathematically precise, they predict and see where those levels are going to be in advance.
Zeph was wondering how I knew when to get out of my aussie position. It was due in part to it hitting my WS2. Anyway, I'll get more into that in later posts.
Another nice thing about my

 

[4xpipcounter]

GBP/USD S&R's

I already gave my forecast concerning this pair. This chart shows exactly why I constructed my S&R's and why they work. All the action so far this year has taken place between the YP--YS2, so that was all that was necessary to display. Notice how populated my YS1 has been this year. The YP to YS1 was pretty much a staight shot. After the initial hit on the YS1, we got the necessary bounce back to the 38.2% mark of YS1 to YP. After that hit on the 38.2 mark, the next move went, after some gravitational action around the YS1, all the way to the 61.8% mark of YS1 to YS2. This repsented another full run of the reference points which is, in this case, 1,158 pips. Next, we got the move, as the finality was witnessed on Friday, back to the YS1 at 1.5005, and a little change.
Another thing to take note of is the action in between the Fibos of my reference points.
Next stop for cable will be the YS2 at 1.3847.
I have a software that does all my DWM S&R's for me, so I don't know exactly what the weeklies will be, but barring anything unseen, we should have a move this week to circa 1.4806, which will be the appoximate WS2. If anything unseen does happen, it will mess up a picture perfect S&R year for cable.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gold S&R's

Hari, got some gold for you.
I don't know what to make of this, inasmuch that we had a proper R break to the 50% mark on May 13th when it peaked at 1249. The problem is that the YR1 is 1256.32. If we get a pullback to 1195.70, then all is well. If we don't, then wait for the YR1 to get broken, then for a pullback to that point. You don't want to trade it now, because we don't know if we will get that move, because we are right there--1254.33 to be exact.

 

[guptabhk]

Re: Gold S&R's

Hari, got some gold for you.
I don't know what to make of this, inasmuch that we had a proper R break to the 50% mark on May 13th when it peaked at 1249. The problem is that the YR1 is 1256.32. If we get a pullback to 1195.70, then all is well. If we don't, then wait for the YR1 to get broken, then for a pullback to that point. You don't want to trade it now, because we don't know if we will get that move, because we are right there--1254.33 to be exact.

thank you paul for posting gold for review, nice it has a elasticity at 1262 I thought and yours is 1256.70 (YR1) already bounced before hitting at 1249 and second time hitting 1265 fell to 1227 and once again on friday retested. i was hoping for a pull back to start the week and then break again.
what u suggest, break means YR1 broke and close above for the day or go to 23.8 % fibo of YR1 to YR2 (1293) will be hit before a pull back to 1196
thanks for revisiting the ichimoku clouds, since ur study posted on ur blog i became a fan of ichimoku. I hope you taken the right direction to post ur opinion in this forum so that many can help understand and utilise ur services

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gold S&R's

Hari, thank-you so much. You know that for me this is not just a way of making a living but something that I genuinely love to do. I'm glad you are getting good out of the ichimoku, and that you still reflect back from the chatroom days of the good we all got from it.
Team the ichimoku up with my S&R's and you'll have a bullet proof system.
I've been in a bit of a slump of late in trading, but still winning, overall. To this day, the last losing eweek I had was when I quit trading as an account manager in 2007.
If you are still in contact with the guys, invite them over. So far, we have Zeph, you, and me. I'm also hoping to hear from Femi before too long. I was humbled and inspired by the great bunch we had. That was a lot of fun.
We'll also have a rerun of the S&R's and more S&R charts.
BTW, your observation of gold is perfect. I also encourage anyone else who does not understand what we are talking about to let me know. I'm open and ready if you got questions.

thank you paul for posting gold for review, nice it has a elasticity at 1262 I thought and yours is 1256.70 (YR1) already bounced before hitting at 1249 and second time hitting 1265 fell to 1227 and once again on friday retested. i was hoping for a pull back to start the week and then break again.
what u suggest, break means YR1 broke and close above for the day or go to 23.8 % fibo of YR1 to YR2 (1293) will be hit before a pull back to 1196
thanks for revisiting the ichimoku clouds, since ur study posted on ur blog i became a fan of ichimoku. I hope you taken the right direction to post ur opinion in this forum so that many can help understand and utilise ur services

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gold weekly S&R's

I will be posting the rest, but here's gold's S&R's for the week. The monthlies will also be coming up on Thursday.
R3--1304.89
R2--1282.44
R1--1269.68
P--1256.91
S1--1243.61
S2--1232.77
S3--1213.62

 

[4xpipcounter]

GBP/USD going up

Cable was needing to finish the day under 1.5005, the YS1, in order for this last move to not be treated as just a spike. That is not going to be the case, so, most likely, we are headed to the 23.6 level at 1.5278.
One thing to look for on the way UP is the reaction at 1.5146--1.5152. That is my MR2 and WR1, respectively. We should be a hard bounce in that area. I might go short in that area, as price action could take us back closxe to the 1.5005 area.
As far as my 2 positions are concerned. I took the one out that I entered at 1.5031 for a -43 pips. Even though I am perfectly confident of both positions eventually be winning trades, I wanted to free up some margin, which will leverage some room for other positions. I also know that I am reentering at 1.5278, so I'm taking -43 now to have a position that will be much better off later.
BTW, this will be the last leg UP for cable. In addiiton to what I already mentioned, 1.5285 is the bottom of the weekly cloud, with the kijun hovering right over it, and the tenken is still sharply divergent.

 

[4xpipcounter]

EUR/GBP trade

The reason this pair cannot get any footing on its way back up is because it did not complete its trip to the YS2 ay .8145, and the stochs are still not OS. There will also be support at the WS1 at .8168. Once .8145 has been touched, this pair could be on its way back to the YS1 at .8505. The weekly tenken is also .8493, so everything matches up pretty well.

 

[4xpipcounter]

S&R's for week of June 27--July 3, 2010

You got the gold, so here are the main 11 forex pairs.
Long story for now, but use the 1-hour chart to monitor the weeklies. Another words, if you draw the Fibos, wait for reaction on the open at that level to determine an entry.

 

[4xpipcounter]

This pair is in a sharp DOWN. Notice my YR1 at 1.1127. Price broke under it, then challenged it, then kept moving downward. It was a given, as noted several times before that the pair was headed to 1.0930, but notice how when price challenged the level it finished under the reference point. That's your seill sign for it to go lower. Also, keep in mind my S&R's were already figured before the year started, not looking in a rearview mirror.
The nice thing is this chart is live. Once we get a break under break under the 38.2% mark at 1.0833, that is you signal for a move lowerto 1.0743. If the candle finishes the day above 1.0833, it will then be indecisive.
This is also something that can be backtested. My S&R's are not lagging indicators. They are future looking. They were already pre-detemined on January 1st.

 

[4xpipcounter]

EUR/AUD S&R's

This chart shows no regard for my S&R's. Since the beginning of the year, it has been a bear out of control until it hit 61.8% of YS1--YS2. Still, notice the gravitational pull back to the YS1 on the first downtrend and and the secone one.
Now, it's time to pull out my crystal ball (LOL). Price is struggling at the 50% YS1--YS2 at 1.4131. A daily close under that will send the pair reeling back to 1.3986. Usually a strong bounce off the 61.8 level pushes price to 38.2, therefore, I am favoring a move to 1.3986.
BTW, my LT radar for this pair is still showing 1.7525.
Refer to my blog, and you will see some of my radar posts. I like doing that, because it seems so far-fetched, and then some how, it all happens.
I would post some of my examples, but that is all hindsight. Foresight is more fun.

 

[4xpipcounter]

EUR/GBP S&R's

This pair took out my YS2 without much of a problem. A proper bounce can be gotton off that reference point as long as it does not sink past the 23.6% level, which is .8004. On the other hand, all we need is a move back over the .8145 level by the time the new day begins, and we are on our way UP. The 23.6% mark is always the margin of error I use in depending on a bounce. If there is a clean move of of .8004. What that would mean is a move to at least the 38.2% level of Y1--Y2 (Now that would be 61.8% of Y2--Y1.) at .8367, and could be the next level up to .8420. Regardless what happens between now and towards the mark at .8004, there is going to be some pips to be gained to the upside, even if it is only a correction of the DOWN.
This has been a good year in the flow of the S&R's for this pair. To start the year, there was a move to 61.8% of YP--YR1, and then it has been DOWN since. The YP was broken on the way DOWN and got a bounce off the 38.1% mark, which made for a perfect cylce of the year's pips, then a move right back under the YP. Afterwards, it was another prefect move to YS1, and then the bounce back to 76.4%. The process repeated itself forming a double top and a double bottom. The next move in the DOWN meant business as it headed to the 76.4% mark of YS!--YS2, and then the bounce, rahter sloppily, made it back to the 38.2 mark, and we are now where we are at.

I'm just showing the past on these moves to show the price interactions with my S&R's. It is not meant to imply I made all these trades.
In trading off of my S&R's, it does make for a very flexible methodology to trade with, which is what I love about it.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Eur/aud--s

I just went short the EUR/AUD. It just bounce off the 4-hour tenken at 1.4127, just under the 1.4131 level. I should be able to get 100 pips out of this 1.3986 is where it is headed.
Also, I'm keeping my eye on cable. I'm going to hedge that position if it gets anywhere close to 1.5005.
I forgot to explain something about the EUR/GBP. My YS2 was broken, but it does not guarantee it will hit the 23.6% level. When my S or R is broken, the 23.6 level simply serves as a grace period or margin of error. Check out some of the posts with the charts and you'll see what I'm saying.

 

[4xpipcounter]

I don't usually set a stop. I left for awhile and found out the EUR/AUD went nuts against me. It also looks like the aussie may be back in its DOWN. Anyway, I took a hit for 15 pips. Makes 2 losing trades this week in a row. That's the way the cookie crumbles.
Okay, the bags are packed, I'm leaving, as I'll be gone a few days. I might do a little trading on my own. See ya on Friday. Tucker says "rrrf rrrf."

 

[4xpipcounter]

I thought I was coming back here until Friday, but I couldn't resist this one. Watch this pair move and you'll know why. I went short at 1.7580. I don't report all my trades, but this one will turn me positive for the week in the reported ones.
I forgot to label it, so this is an addendum. It's the GBP/AUD.