Some of my trades, forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Ichimoku cloud III

This is part 2 of the Ichimoku and its components. This part will cover the features and the uniqueness of the tenken sen "(tenken" for short) and kijun sen ("kijun" for short). Opportunities can be found in any market and timeframe. I would specifically urge you to plot the ichimoku on your chart, then see for yourselves what ichimoku will yield to you in terms of trading opportunities. You can also use any of the charts I have posted in this thread as a reference.
Also in describing each component of ichimoku, they are best used as a confluence with other components, but each entity can still be used as a standalone indicator when used correctly.
In using the tenken and kijun as a determinant for an entry, there are specific rules that are applied just like in any other methodology.
Unless another chart has been posted, the blue line will always be the tenken and the red line the kijun
Let's refer to the USD/CHF chart as posted in post #73. I'm using that chart, not to cherry-pick the charts, but because the trend went from Down to UP to Down. After all, it does no good if it is a consistent trend on the whole chart with the exception of identifying that the kijun abd tenken act as resistances and supports. If that is all it is good for, then I might as well end the post right now....but, I'm not letting you off that easy.
First, when the tenken crosses over the kijun it is a buy or sell signal depended on the direction it crossed. There are other factors, namely the location of them when they crossed. As an example if they cross below the cloud and the candle is at the top if the cloud, then that is not a viable buy signal. It is, however, if price action gets retreats back to the area and the close is just above that cross. The idea cross, in the example of a long position would be when it crosses just under the cloud and the candle is near the bottom of the cloud. Another nice signal is when the candle crosses above the TK after it crossed. That can be said for about anywhere on the map.
Getting back to the USD/CHF, notice when the direction changed from DOWN to UP. The 1st candle in the UP opened above the tenken. That is the 1st indication that some action going north is about to happen. As a confluence the candles were floating quite low by comparison to the cloud, so there needed to be a gravitational pull of some sort. Once it started above the tenken it went up and then the next day the kijun was resistance, but the tenken was still support. Notice how the tenken and kijun are both converging. The ultimate buy signal comes when the candle opens above both the TK on the cross. After that happens, price action never touched the kijun while the next resistance was the cloud. Ultimately, the candle gets pushed into the cloud, and the candle continues through the cloud and out the other end. Once out, there was going to be a further rise, but a warning came when the kijun's momentum gave out and went level on top of the cloud.
There are a few traders that use the ichimoku as a standalone indicator. I can understand how they could use it as such in lieu of my view of the pair. I have been saying all along that because of the stochastics being OB that price action will end up at the kijun, which is 1.0930. That is also solid support, because it is still level, and also resting atop the cloud. Therefore once the kijun is hit and the week closes above it, then that is a viable buy sign.
Next stop in our journey through the land of ichimoku is the cloud

 

[4xpipcounter]

Update

Today's low at 1.4686 represented only a spike beyond my DS1, as the DS1 and the top of the 4-hour cloud contained the drop.
As I'm writing this, current price is 1.4843, The WP at 1.4856 should contain anymore upside for the day. Eventually, this area should be broken, and my target of 1.4954 gets hit.

The top of the 4-hour cloud is support at 1.4715 Additional support is at the DS1 at 1.4706. Just in case price breaks throguh that area, then expect the bottom of the cloud at 1.4600 to be containment. The next upside target should be WR1 at 1.4954

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Usd/jpy

My cluster support area was broken and the pair headed south which is why I said it is too risky. My DS2 at 90.38 should be containment for the day. There are clusters of resistances from 90.88 all he way to 91.48. That area is containment for this pair if it seeks to head north. Expect a strong reaction around 89.23, which is my MS1.

90.88 is a huge cluster support area. If price gets around this area, additional momentum will pick up on the fall. We could also be on our way back up. I'm saying it is 60-40 right now. I slightly favor a reversal. This is because during the low volume times of the Japanese session, the indicators will catch up, then when it's time to dance, we're headed north.
still, for me, this is too risky.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Update

Another fall is expected, because my WS2 was missed by 16 points at 1.2251. Also, the daily kijun is an objective at 1.2219. No further correction can be made on the DOWN until my objective is hit.

This pair is not back in its DOWN. This is a retracement of the correction of the downtrend. The stochastics are OB on the daily. This means the the tenken and the kijun both get hit. The tenken already got hit today, and the kijun is at 1.2219. There will also be a cluster event in that area as the WS2 is 1.2235, and there will also be a meeting with the top of the 4-hour cloud in that circa area.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Usd/chf

The minimum retracement for the UP for this pair is 1.1163. This is because the pair bounced perfectly off my MS2 at 1.1021 in an OS condition on the 4-hour chart. The objective represnts the kijun, as well as the 50% mark between reference points. Also, the WR! is 1.1161, so that area could be containment, but that is not for assurety.

 

[4xpipcounter]

The math for the EUR and AUD

I wanted to put a mathematical perspective on my monthly objective for the EUR/AUD at 1.7525, and the objective for the AUD/USD at .7827. If both of those hit the targets simultaneously, then that puts the EUR/USD at 1.3717. The monthly kijun is 1.3510, and that would be containment seeing this is only a recovery of the DOWN. Allowing for any possible spike beyond that during any given month, the bottom of the cloud is 1.3829, which is well within the parameters.
That is not my forecast for the EUR/USD, but the minimum mentioned targets for the EUR/AUD and the AUD/USD are, so something has to give. Price action can go beyond my targets.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Uer/chf--l

This pair is taking on a look similar to the AUD/USD. Remeber when I mentioned my MR1 at .8801, and then it drifted off to the peak at .8858. Now, we see what is happening with the pair.
The EUR/CHF's MS3 is 1.3620. The WS1 is 1.3602. The 4-hour chart is very OS. Minimum bounce expectation is 1.3756, which is the 4-hour tenken.
My entry is .13591, which includes the spread. I set a TP at 1.3752. It's a little less because of the margin of error. I use one set of charts to gauge my trades by and another to trade on. My broker's is not quite as accurate as I like.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Usd/cad

The title on my previous post is a typo. It should have said "EUR/CHF".
Opportunities are starting to abound. I wanted to post this chart of the USD/CAD to show the synergy between the stochastics and my S&R's. Notice the stochastics is not crossed yet, but is very OB. The WR2 is 1.0302, and the DR2 is also 1.0302. The DR2 is going to change in about 39 minutes from this writing, because it is a daily R. Once again, in an OB situation minimum fall it to the kijun, which is 1.0238. This is also going to show the effectiveness os using this amalgamation in any TF.
The only thing to be aware of on the lower TF's is the target point, namely the kijun. It could change rapidly, depending on the velocity of the move. Again, the higher the TF's, the more stable the readings.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Eur/gbp

I get the feeling this pair is bound for a 61.8% continuation of my WS2 at .8289. If that is the case, then we have an ideal entry to go long at the MS2 at .8254. We could get a move all the way back to the MS1 at .8359.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gbp/jpy

The tenken is intercepting a sideways move into the cloud, therefore, we should see a move to the daily kijun at 132.01. Count me in on this one. Entry on a short is 134.13. I hit it perfectly on the 1-hour tenken.

 

[JahDave]

Re: Uer/chf--l

This pair is taking on a look similar to the AUD/USD. Remeber when I mentioned my MR1 at .8801, and then it drifted off to the peak at .8858. Now, we see what is happening with the pair.
The EUR/CHF's MS3 is 1.3620. The WS1 is 1.3602. The 4-hour chart is very OS. Minimum bounce expectation is 1.3756, which is the 4-hour tenken.
My entry is .13591, which includes the spread. I set a TP at 1.3752. It's a little less because of the margin of error. I use one set of charts to gauge my trades by and another to trade on. My broker's is not quite as accurate as I like.

Hey 4x, I quit tracking the EC because I am concentrating on 4 pairs, but I did load a chart and run some quick analysis on it. Believe it not or I would be running the same stop and limit if I had that trade. I did notice something interesting in the wave count. I think the chart is pretty clear when the swiss government intervened. Anyway, after a bounce I think it has one more move down before it heads up long term.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Uer/chf--l

I should have posted my LT the same time I did this trade I have up now. It's too freaky. In viewing the weekly, I see a strong leg DOWN after this move UP. Momentum is giving out on the monthly which could mean the end of the whole downtrend .
I guess I'm counting on swiss weakness, because I see a further fall for the EUR/USD. The kijun just dropped on the daily to 1.2192. After this, the eweekly tenken at 1.2645 should be hit. I did read your thread, so I just wanted to share one of our dissenting views.

Hey 4x, I quit tracking the EC because I am concentrating on 4 pairs, but I did load a chart and run some quick analysis on it. Believe it not or I would be running the same stop and limit if I had that trade. I did notice something interesting in the wave count. I think the chart is pretty clear when the swiss government intervened. Anyway, after a bounce I think it has one more move down before it heads up long term.

 

[Masonz]

Hey Paul, is the euro aussie living w/o us or should I still hang out and wait? I didn't want to chance a backup of 500 pips as you said, so I bailed. Like the way the gbp/yen moves and you gave the rightaway, so I jumped in.
Thanks for the S&R's. I see you said the eurchf is heading further south. It already broke your YS3, so what is going to happen?
Got to give yo a plug. When Paul posts his S&R's, you guys pay attention. There aint better S&R's in the land.
Oooh, eurchf backed down to your WS!, so I took a bite of it too at 1.3602.
Thanks again Paul. You got more value on this thread than paid sites have.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Hi Zeph, The recent activity of the EUR/AUD answers your question.
When a pair trends like the EUR/CHF has this year, there always be the gravitational pull back to the 3. It's a matter of finding the best point of entry to take advantage of it.
BTW, Jason wanted you to give him a call. It's nothing except chit chat, I'm sure.

 

[4xpipcounter]

EUR/CHF update and GBP/USD

I took the EUR/CHF out at 1.3612 for +21 pips. Momentum is too slow that it is putting me to sleep. Also, the kijun is dropping too fast. Thsi does not mean it won't go up further, but I just don't want to stick around, especially knowing there is most likely another drop.
I set and entry order to go short on the GBP/USD at 1.4954, which is my WR1. The reversal may have begun. Overall, I'm still looking for the correction to continue, possibly one more leg.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/usd

The target was hit today, as the low was 1.2208. From that point it had a strong bounce.

This pair is not back in its DOWN. This is a retracement of the correction of the downtrend. The stochastics are OB on the daily. This means the the tenken and the kijun both get hit. The tenken already got hit today, and the kijun is at 1.2219. There will also be a cluster event in that area as the WS2 is 1.2235, and there will also be a meeting with the top of the 4-hour cloud in that circa area.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Usd/jpy

The pair did continue lower today. There was a struggle, but it broke through 90.38, and hit my DS3 right on the nose at 89.73.

My cluster support area was broken and the pair headed south which is why I said it is too risky. My DS2 at 90.38 should be containment for the day. There are clusters of resistances from 90.88 all he way to 91.48. That area is containment for this pair if it seeks to head north. Expect a strong reaction around 89.23, which is my MS1.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Usd/chf

Today's peak was 1.1137, which was just a tad over the 38.1% mark of MS2--MS1. I'm almost disappointed when I don't get it exactly right, but the retracement was still worthwhile from where it bottomed.

The minimum retracement for the UP for this pair is 1.1163. This is because the pair bounced perfectly off my MS2 at 1.1021 in an OS condition on the 4-hour chart. The objective represnts the kijun, as well as the 50% mark between reference points. Also, the WR! is 1.1161, so that area could be containment, but that is not for assurety.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: eur/chf--l

I definitely missed it on this one. I proved to be a better trader than forecaster. I took +21 pips on this pair, getting out at exactly the peak, and entering 2 points from the bottom. I still would not be surprised to see a rally to 1.3703.

This pair is taking on a look similar to the AUD/USD. Remeber when I mentioned my MR1 at .8801, and then it drifted off to the peak at .8858. Now, we see what is happening with the pair.
The EUR/CHF's MS3 is 1.3620. The WS1 is 1.3602. The 4-hour chart is very OS. Minimum bounce expectation is 1.3756, which is the 4-hour tenken.
My entry is .13591, which includes the spread. I set a TP at 1.3752. It's a little less because of the margin of error. I use one set of charts to gauge my trades by and another to trade on. My broker's is not quite as accurate as I like.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Usd/cad

I'm glad I did not trade this one. The rally was too strong for my WR2 to contain it. The biggest pullback we had after my WR2 was hit was back to 1.0280, which was only 21 points.

The title on my previous post is a typo. It should have said "EUR/CHF".
Opportunities are starting to abound. I wanted to post this chart of the USD/CAD to show the synergy between the stochastics and my S&R's. Notice the stochastics is not crossed yet, but is very OB. The WR2 is 1.0302, and the DR2 is also 1.0302. The DR2 is going to change in about 39 minutes from this writing, because it is a daily R. Once again, in an OB situation minimum fall it to the kijun, which is 1.0238. This is also going to show the effectiveness os using this amalgamation in any TF.
The only thing to be aware of on the lower TF's is the target point, namely the kijun. It could change rapidly, depending on the velocity of the move. Again, the higher the TF's, the more stable the readings.