Some of my trades, forecasts

[pssonice]

2u: "T2W site has certain standards,..."

"1.6 Please don't pretend to be an expert if you aren't one."
u wrote " ... I took it out for -9 pips.
That makes my 5th losing trade of the month, and today's losing trade is my 2nd largest losing trade of the month. I've made a total of 26 trades on the month. "

the standardeviation of EURUSD pair is 10pips. Im sure u never ever do trades in your life

 

[guptabhk]

please see what he is talking about

"1.6 Please don't pretend to be an expert if you aren't one."
u wrote " ... I took it out for -9 pips.
That makes my 5th losing trade of the month, and today's losing trade is my 2nd largest losing trade of the month. I've made a total of 26 trades on the month. "

the standardeviation of EURUSD pair is 10pips. Im sure u never ever do trades in your life

paul is talking about eur/gbp his entry price .8347 and reached a low of .8334 and reversed and momentum is not that strong so he closed the position at .8356 . this forum started with the clear intention of sharing his method and ideas . it is just the beginning. let us see what is showing.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: 2u: "T2W site has certain standards,..."

Keep talking Pssonice. Most people in this whole site know about you.
BTW, pardon me for making a losing trade. I'll try and do better next time. Actually, if you think I am one bit bashful about admitting when I do make a losing trade, I got news for you. Also, total nets gains is all that counts, regardless of the route your trade takes, and I have an outstanding trading record based on that.
I know you fault find about everyone you see on here. I'm still waiting for you to post some trades of your own.
Pretend to be an expert!? Are you kidding. I don't need to pretend. I am the only forecaster that I base my trades on. I am my favorite forecaster. That's my bias, but I'm entitled to it. And BTW, please....that is not a knock on any of you traders that have excellent trading methods. The ones that do know what I am talking about, you turn a deaf ear to everyone, only listen to yourself, and are always learning new tricks. You are also your favorite forecaster.
OTOH, Pssonice, it sounds like you have lived a hard life, so if you need a friend, I'll be here for you on that purpose too. No joke there.
Also, let's face some facts and be able to back up what we say. You wrote, "T2W site has certain standards". If you think I'm not abiding by those standards, then report me, so T2W can kick me out of here.

"1.6 Please don't pretend to be an expert if you aren't one."
u wrote " ... I took it out for -9 pips.
That makes my 5th losing trade of the month, and today's losing trade is my 2nd largest losing trade of the month. I've made a total of 26 trades on the month. "

the standardeviation of EURUSD pair is 10pips. Im sure u never ever do trades in your life

 

[4xpipcounter]

Hari, I wanted to give some addiitonal observations concerning this post.
I looked at the crude oil chart for the first time in a long time (After all, I don't trade it.). You have remembered the post on my blog when I mentioned that the 78.00 level needs to be containment. I noticed it peaked at 78.10 on this last retracement. Oil has been punching it out with the top of the weekly cloud. We need a weekly close convincingly under 72.93 and that battle is over. Then, it's on to 57.17. I like watching oil prices only because I like paying less at the gas pump.
As far as the EUR/USD goes, the weekly kijun is on the radar at 1.2698. We'll get a bounce off of there, and then we should have another leg UP. The latter is what I see, for now, but not confirmed.
As far as GBP/JPY is concerned, it has been all over the map. I'd like to see my MR1 at 137.49 hit, and then settle in for a comfortable ride south.


OTE=guptabhk;1157430]hi Paul,
this is Hari krishna
seems nice discussion going on , I think next week onwards if u post the S/R levels of weekly, monthly for major pairs and then during discussion when u mention the levels , it can be easily visualised and other also can understand how accurate your levels are.
to day it seems gbpjpy/euro/crude may try their downside in my opinion[/QUOTE]

 

[4xpipcounter]

USD/CHF trade

The objective to the weekly tenken was met today at 1.1166. The next stop is the top of the cloud / kijun combination at 1.0930. That might take a little time, because price action has also met up with support at the top of the daily cloud. Intraday indicators or looking at bit exhausted, so I went short at 1.1127 (spread included).

 

[4xpipcounter]

Aussie and kiwi

Kiwi has a similar look. All I'm saying is these 2 pairs are getting ready for some explosive southbound happiness if you are holding short. The stochastics are very OB. The kijun has crossed over the tenken .8384. Once under that price action should even pick up moreThe top brim of the cloud is .8725, which is absolute containment.
.7096 is containment for kiwi. There is a kijun-tenken crossover at .6799.
This is kind of paradoxical. My saying is, "Don't listen to anyone!" I'm sitting here at the camnpground thinking, "Please listen. You are going to make lots of pips."
Come to think of it. Put a short on your demo at 10%. Walk away, and come back next month at this time and see the result.

 

[JahDave]

Re: Aussie and kiwi

Kiwi has a similar look. All I'm saying is these 2 pairs are getting ready for some explosive southbound happiness if you are holding short. The stochastics are very OB. The kijun has crossed over the tenken .8384. Once under that price action should even pick up moreThe top brim of the cloud is .8725, which is absolute containment.
.7096 is containment for kiwi. There is a kijun-tenken crossover at .6799.
This is kind of paradoxical. My saying is, "Don't listen to anyone!" I'm sitting here at the camnpground thinking, "Please listen. You are going to make lots of pips."
Come to think of it. Put a short on your demo at 10%. Walk away, and come back next month at this time and see the result.

I totally agree with the Aussie setup. It may break down tomorrow. I would like to learn more about using Ichimoku, so I've started checking your post daily. Anyway I'm attaching my 1 hour AUD chart with what I think is an ending diagonal in progress for the fifth and final wave up. The big green 4 on the top is on a much larger scale and if my charting is correct then the Aussie has to make a new low below .8100.

Happy Trading and thanks for the good thread
Dave

 

[4xpipcounter]

USD/CHF update

After bottoming at the London close, I was really counting on a 30-pip or more recovery. I admit it was a risky trade. I did get a pullback....finally, and I took my trade out at 1.1125, for -1 pip.
Also, part of my fault on the trade was counting on a recovery in no-man's land. There were no S&R's in sight. All the corrective objectives for this pair have been met except for the weekly kijun and top of the cloud combo at 1.0930. Watch for a reaction at 1.1021. That is my MS1.
Albeit, 1 pip is a losing trade, so that gives me 6 for the month, and 5 are single digit. Oh yeah, did I mention my 18 winning trades?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Aussie and kiwi

Dave, considering you have possibly my favorite thread on this site (Other than mine--LOL.), let me give it a plug, "Elliot Wave EUR/USD". I never use other methodologies to trade by, and I can't even begin to put together rebounds, bounce points, and reversals using the Elliot Wave, so for me, it is insightful to see my forecasts (lack of better terms here) through the eyes of an Elliot Wave analyzer.
My blog is 4xpipcounter.blogspot.com. A few years ago I gave a tutorial in the usage of the ichimoku cloud. I hope within the next 24 hours to post those locations from my blog in this thread. I'm also going to post this year's S&R's, even though I'm later than I've ever been, and I will also post the decade's S&R's. They are deadon accurate, and I would even be interested to see how they would amalgamate or coincide with your Elliot analysis.
Folks, both us here agree, it is getting real close to the southbound ride on this jet. Dave says .8100. I say .7827. Just get on!

I totally agree with the Aussie setup. It may break down tomorrow. I would like to learn more about using Ichimoku, so I've started checking your post daily. Anyway I'm attaching my 1 hour AUD chart with what I think is an ending diagonal in progress for the fifth and final wave up. The big green 4 on the top is on a much larger scale and if my charting is correct then the Aussie has to make a new low below .8100.

Happy Trading and thanks for the good thread
Dave

 

[4xpipcounter]

Forecast Updates

In thread #6, I mentioned that the AUD/CHF was going to be contained at either .9857, .9871, .9895. Instead containment was seen at .9845, and then we had the big move DOWN. It was today that it finally hit the bottom of the 4-hour cloud and the WS2 at .9565. We will get a bounce at the MS1 at .9424. So be on the lok out for that. The reactionary process will tell a lot where the next major move will lead the pair.
Thread #15--I said the GBP/JPY was going to peak and reverse at either 136.29, 137.49, or 138.43. It did not hit the aforementioned, as the peak wa only 135.95. A look at the 4-hour chart shows some very rough, sideways action, which is a result of cheating my S&R's. I did say we would get a run to 133.13. It hit a low of 132.50, and bounced hard on the other side of 133.13. I am still waiting on a further correction, and then pay the ticket for the ride.
Thread #17--I was dubious but still said it, that the EUR/USD was headed to the weekly tenken at 1.2698. Now, it is looking clearer all the time
As a sidenote, I did say somewhere the EUR/AUD will be going to 1.7525. With the way the EUR/USD looks and the AUD/USD, this might be the beginning of that run.
Thread #18--USD/CHF is headed to 1.1349, 1.1284, 1.1166, 1.0930. All except the latter have been met. Watch out for 1.1021, my MS1. That could be strong support .It could be a ride in the country from that point to the end. BTW, not only is 1.0930 on the radar, but it could and even should be containment, and then we would resume the UP. More on that as we get closer.
In the spirit of transparency, I wanted to give those updates. And don't forget, after kiwi and aussie have made their moves, I will also be giving an update for them. This southbound trip may leave London on Friday, If not, then we'll wait to get to New York. I love counting pips, so I'm getting excited .

 

[JahDave]

Re: Aussie and kiwi

Dave, considering you have possibly my favorite thread on this site (Other than mine--LOL.), let me give it a plug, "Elliot Wave EUR/USD". I never use other methodologies to trade by, and I can't even begin to put together rebounds, bounce points, and reversals using the Elliot Wave, so for me, it is insightful to see my forecasts (lack of better terms here) through the eyes of an Elliot Wave analyzer.
My blog is 4xpipcounter.blogspot.com. A few years ago I gave a tutorial in the usage of the ichimoku cloud. I hope within the next 24 hours to post those locations from my blog in this thread. I'm also going to post this year's S&R's, even though I'm later than I've ever been, and I will also post the decade's S&R's. They are deadon accurate, and I would even be interested to see how they would amalgamate or coincide with your Elliot analysis.
Folks, both us here agree, it is getting real close to the southbound ride on this jet. Dave says .8100. I say .7827. Just get on!

I said minimum of 81, so 78 is more likely. There are multiple Fibo targets between 79 and 74.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Trade

Just for the record, I added another short on to the AUD/USD smack dab at .8700.

 

[JahDave]

Re: Trade

Just for the record, I added another short on to the AUD/USD smack dab at .8700.

I do have an alternate count where the Aussie drops anytime now, but only to about .8450 or so before continuing up. Anyway that is still gonna be 300 pips or so. I don't have an alternate count where it keeps going up past the .8050.

 

[4xpipcounter]

GBP/USD update, and....

I've been saying for awhile to watch for the 1.4888. The ichimoku cloud is dynamic. The top of the cluod actually dropped 8 points to 1.4880, nevertheless, today's peak was 1.4887, and it plunged from there to a low, so far of 1.4783. Because of lack of volume not creating the momentous effect that is necessary to push the pair along. The next upside target is the WR3 at 1.4983. Considering that won't be hit today, next week it will be a variable at WR1. Until this week is in our rearview mirror, I dont' know what it will be. But, that will be the circa area to look for.
As far as aussie and kiwi are concerned, the waiting game is extending. You might say out takeoff has been stalled.
I am still watching the EUR/AUD. I'm telling you if I could find the bottom wihtin 500 points, I'd be jumping in. I still need to be patient on it. You might say, "500 points!? Are you crazy!?" My answer is, "I could be." But then there is an axiom that says 2-1 risk / reward. This is like 6-1, becuase the move UP should be at least 3,000 pips.
BTW, I don't agree with that 2-1 risk/reward that many people aspire too (just opinion). The reason is, let's say you yours is 1-1, and you win 80% of the time. Now, what if it's 2-1 and you win 30% of the time? I'll take the 1-1 at 80%.
BTW, I'm going to make this thread as informative as anything gets. I was going to refer to specific pages on my blog to show the effects of the ichimoku and my S&R's. Instead, as time goes on, I decided I'm going to post everything in this thread, so like I used to tell people on my blog, stay tuned!

 

[4xpipcounter]

Forex Mathematics

People talk about diversifying, even in the forex markets. I got news for you, there is no diversifying. Do you ever notice markets trend and go sideways at vitually the same time? Moves related to velocity happen at the same time. Mathematically, there is a simple relationship. Math majors or even ones that have taken college algebra can easily relate to this. I'm going to use 3 currency pairs as the example--GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, and the EUR/USD. Algebraically, if we multiply the GBP/USD and the EUR/GBP together, the GBP's cancel out, and we are left with the EUR/USD. Therefore, GBP/USD * EUR/GBP = EUR/USD. As of this writing, the GBP/USD was 1.4784, the EUR/GBP was .8368, and the EUR/USD was 1.2371. When we multiply 1.4784 * .8368, it equals 1.2371.
I don't pay too close attention to the AUD/CHF, as a rule. What led me to making a forecast concerning it was that at the time, I knew it had to of been way up there, and knew it was ready for a plunge, because of the prognosis on the USD/CHF and the AUD/USD. My ichimoku and S&R's confirmed that fact, so I gave the forecast concerning it.
Also, as a rule (nothing mathematical here), when there is yen strength, there is DJIA weakness, and where there is yen weakness, there is DJIA strength. Therefore, it is also safe to say that as a rule, the DJIA is techncially proportional and collaborated with the movements in forex.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Ichimoku cloud I

This is going to begin a series of posts on the ichimoku cloud. The following is a cut and paste from my blog on Oct. 2007, Eventually, I'll cover each element of it, and show some of the dynamics associated with it, and give some live examples of its usage. This will take several posts, and will take some time, so be patient. Also, your comments are welcomed, whether you agree or disagree. I'm up to constructive comment. So, here goes--part I:

The laws of ichimoku are the fact that it is very dynamic. Certain levels will change as time progresses. The higher the timeframe, the less apt it is subject to change. This is because higher timeframes are stronger because of their size. They are more stable. You might question, "Why does this have to be?" Our entire world revolves around constant change. Anything that is static, will not work. In order for something to be effective, it has to move with the change of time.
As far as higher timerframes being more stable, well, is it easier to throw a pebble in the water, or the Rock of Gibralter?
In lieu of what is mentioned above, this is, in part, why I love my S&R's so much. They don't stand still, and they cause a different price reaction, depended on what state they are in and the timeframe. So many times I have seen a WR1 get blown out of the water, then 30 points back is the MR1 waiting to create a monster reversal.
Cluster events are very important to take note of, whether they come from the laws of ichimoku or my S&R's. Price is always in a fight as it moves. The things that hinder the movement are the supports and resistances. Look at a fighter. Let's say you have a lightweight fighting a heavyweight. You could safely say that lightweight would not have a chance. Now, let's say that a lightweight is going to fight 2 heavyweights at one time. All the more, no chance! Same goes when price runs into the monthly tenken and the bottom of the weekly cloud, ie, at the same time.

 

[JahDave]

Re: GBP/USD update, and....

I've been saying for awhile to watch for the 1.4888. The ichimoku cloud is dynamic. The top of the cluod actually dropped 8 points to 1.4880, nevertheless, today's peak was 1.4887, and it plunged from there to a low, so far of 1.4783. Because of lack of volume not creating the momentous effect that is necessary to push the pair along. The next upside target is the WR3 at 1.4983. Considering that won't be hit today, next week it will be a variable at WR1. Until this week is in our rearview mirror, I dont' know what it will be. But, that will be the circa area to look for.
As far as aussie and kiwi are concerned, the waiting game is extending. You might say out takeoff has been stalled.
I am still watching the EUR/AUD. I'm telling you if I could find the bottom wihtin 500 points, I'd be jumping in. I still need to be patient on it. You might say, "500 points!? Are you crazy!?" My answer is, "I could be." But then there is an axiom that says 2-1 risk / reward. This is like 6-1, becuase the move UP should be at least 3,000 pips.
BTW, I don't agree with that 2-1 risk/reward that many people aspire too (just opinion). The reason is, let's say you yours is 1-1, and you win 80% of the time. Now, what if it's 2-1 and you win 30% of the time? I'll take the 1-1 at 80%.
BTW, I'm going to make this thread as informative as anything gets. I was going to refer to specific pages on my blog to show the effects of the ichimoku and my S&R's. Instead, as time goes on, I decided I'm going to post everything in this thread, so like I used to tell people on my blog, stay tuned!

Hey 4x, I just went long EURAUD last night at 1.4145 because I have a final Elliott Wave Count that finished at that 1.4150 low (I put my stop at 1.4140). Anyway it should be back on the way up now to above 1.5460 if my wave counts are correct. I have an if done buy order in about every 150 pips on the way up(LOL), so we'll see how it plays out. Finally I just sold another lot of Aussie at .87. If I'm trading longer term like a week or more I usually add positions as it goes my way and move my stops up along the way as well. I hope you don't mind me making a large post on your thread but I felt like I should post some farther and closer EURAUD charts to explain my position

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: GBP/USD update, and....

Dave, feel free anytime. Your posts are always welcomed.
I'm hear at the campground, and I thought as soon as I leave and get all this packed up, I was going to ask if you had any input concerning the EUR/AUD. I got a handle on where it is going to end up. I just had a problem figuring out the turning point into the new UP.
It looks like the Maherajah of Elliot Wave and the Maherajah of ichimoku has agreed again as far as the final target is concerned. I mentioned in another post, you might have 2 complete different systems, but they produce the same essential results if it is a winning system. Proven again. Unreal!
BTW, just reflecting off of another post, when I mentioned the urgency about getting in on the AUD/USD. I mentioned both of our targeted areas while reflecting on the beginning years of mine, which was about 6 years ago. I used to call Max McKegg "The Great One". I'm not sure there is a more respected trader in tghe industry. I spent much time reviewing his system while trying to formulate one of my own. Later, I discovered Action Forex, who has some of the very best forecasts in the industry. I used to always say as long as Max and Action match up, there's your confluence. Well, regardless if it is .7827, .8200, or .7400, jump in, this is going to be a fine ride.

Hey 4x, I just went long EURAUD last night at 1.4145 because I have a final Elliott Wave Count that finished at that 1.4150 low (I put my stop at 1.4140). Anyway it should be back on the way up now to above 1.5460 if my wave counts are correct. I have an if done buy order in about every 150 pips on the way up(LOL), so we'll see how it plays out. Finally I just sold another lot of Aussie at .87. If I'm trading longer term like a week or more I usually add positions as it goes my way and move my stops up along the way as well. I hope you don't mind me making a large post on your thread but I felt like I should post some farther and closer EURAUD charts to explain my position

 

[JahDave]

Re: GBP/USD update, and....

Dave, feel free anytime. Your posts are always welcomed.
I'm hear at the campground, and I thought as soon as I leave and get all this packed up, I was going to ask if you had any input concerning the EUR/AUD. I got a handle on where it is going to end up. I just had a problem figuring out the turning point into the new UP.
It looks like the Maherajah of Elliot Wave and the Maherajah of ichimoku has agreed again as far as the final target is concerned. I mentioned in another post, you might have 2 complete different systems, but they produce the same essential results if it is a winning system. Proven again. Unreal!
BTW, just reflecting off of another post, when I mentioned the urgency about getting in on the AUD/USD. I mentioned both of our targeted areas while reflecting on the beginning years of mine, which was about 6 years ago. I used to call Max McKegg "The Great One". I'm not sure there is a more respected trader in tghe industry. I spent much time reviewing his system while trying to formulate one of my own. Later, I discovered Action Forex, who has some of the very best forecasts in the industry. I used to always say as long as Max and Action match up, there's your confluence. Well, regardless if it is .7827, .8200, or .7400, jump in, this is going to be a fine ride.

Sorry, I meant I went long last night at 1.4245 instead of 1.4145 ( it's showing on my chart).

 

[4xpipcounter]

Zeph, the 4-hour chart is extremely OS. With the current outlook on the AUD, I would think now would be a good time .Right now we are at 1.4189, maybe lower depended on what time your broker quits for the week.
In the beginning it might be risky, because there are R's all over. If momentum gives out, I'll post it, then take whatever the market gives you. If your risk appetite is 500 pips, you should be safe. I just don't see it dropping that much more. After I said all that, you should know that I am not in that position. This is due in part to having 3 positions on the aussie and 1 on the kiwi. I don't want to load up anymore until those positions get moving in my favor.
As I understand it, you only have 2 positions open at 10% or less. If that is the case, then you are going to be okay, even if ti means taking from the market something quick. If my conjecture is wrong, then let me know before you get in.

Hey Paul, when can I go long the euraud?