Plain Vanilla Options Trades.

[DaveJB]

Interesting -
Profitaker: Sorry, you misunderstood - I wasn't arguing with you, simply pointing out that whilst it does take a lot of 'got it right' calls to prove a hypothesis to be right, you only have to show it's wrong ONCE to disprove it. Hence the hypothesis 'writers have the edge' would appear to be disproved, and I was inviting Soc to perhaps reconsider explaining it.... because I accept I am fallible, might well have it all wrong, and would welcome being granted what would (presumably) be a deeper understanding. Should he choose not to then obviously I'll tend to think this was a flawed strategy....

One thing is for sure - and that is you know your like really well

What a load of rubbish, really, for someone that appears to have been around a while you would think that you would have a small bit of Cop On - but as you said yourself

What's fascinating is that the anti-Soc movement seem to think I am supporting Soc, while CYOF is (as usual, see quote) spitting feathers about my being against the chap... somebody here must be wrong <G>
What's 'my like' then CYOF? If you'd like to read my post I said 'I think Soc got it wrong, I don't see the logic in holding these positions against the market, I would welcome an explanation of how it made sense'. I also was polite about it, have twice said that Soc is actually much nicer than his T2W posts would suggest (in the distant hope that some of the aggro might be reduced so sensible discussion could occur) and agreed that whilst I'd like to see this I fully accept it would be Soc's choice to do so.

What is it that offends you in that - the fact I appear to consider the margin issue to be a significant problem that cries out for explanation? The way to show that I'm too stupid to understand the answer is to tell me the answer, then see if I understand it...

 

[Jack o'Clubs]

You guys are really clueless - do any of ye know how to read a chart, cause by the way ye are talking, ye are nothing but wafflers, repeating the same old dreary story over and over ...

... As for the others, yeh, like do ye think that real traders are that stupid, really, or are ye all so much behind that ye are still trying to grasp the concepts, let alone the realities.

As I understand it, this thread was about writing uncovered puts and holding to expiry, not trading them. I can understand it if Soc has subsequently hedged his risk, if he held the positons in the first place, but that was not the argument for this thread or Soc's thesis. His March expiry puts face an uphill struggle. That's the reality as I understand it.

 

[Profitaker]

Dave

I don't mind if you do argue, I've no problem with that. If nobody disagreed we wouldn't have a market trade !

"you only have to show it's wrong ONCE to disprove it."

It might be worth re-visiting exactly what is meant by "edge". It is an advantage, of some sorts, such that when applied many, many times the outcome is near certain profit.

A roulettle table has the edge, but if they were down on the day / week / month does that mean the edge has been dis-proved ? I don't think this is what you are saying, as I said, it may be worth re-visiting what is meant by "edge".

 

[DaveJB]

Profitaker,
yes an 'edge' implies that over time/many trades there's a profit, rather than it being over a single trade, and it's with that in mind that I accept that Soc might well 'prove' he was right.... but margin is there to ensure potential losses are covered - given a big enough event even the deepest pockets can lose - so whilst the case may be proved I would like to know what those in favour of this strategy believe makes the margin issue unimportant. We're not arguing, we're discussing - that's what civilised people do and I for one am happy that we're both rational.

CYOF - I thought I was asking a civil enough question - which if you'll excuse me was posed to Soc, not yourself. I am quite sure that if Soc wishes to reply then he will do so, I think you are being quite rude to him by assuming he needs you to argue his case for him. I can't help feeling he'd probably appoint somebody better qualified, for a start.

 

[Mr. Charts]

Good to see you posting again DaveJB
Another breath of fresh air to clear away the dense smog that has returned to this thread.
Richard

PS For those who don't know what smog is, it's a suffocating cocktail of fog and smoke....

 

[dc2000]

There is a big black cone shaped object with your name on it - and I am sure that I can find another for your buddie - the one who is selective in his replies, in case he shows how much he really knows - as I know ye are Siamese Twins. :cheesy:

talk about dejavu any minute now Barjon will be here with the big scissors to trim the excess

 

[laptop1]

I hope SOCS is prepared for the next leg down. could be as early as next week

I posted this msg to SOCS last Friday, I dont want to rub it in, but I did warn him

Writers can lose everything on one trade. I hope you have deep pockets

 

[Profitaker]

A margin record for the trade;

 

[SOCRATES]

Actually, while you are at it full blast in your collective and individual nastiness, this is what happened.

On Friday the 23rd of February, all evening I had a feeling of regret at not having closed my positions.

This feeling did not leave me all that weekend.

On Monday morning, the 26th of February I came in here at 0730 with a mug of tea and sat down and waited for the market to open.

When it opened, to my surprise, it did so at the level of the close of Friday. Usually the first hour of the first session of the week involves some activity, but on this occasion...none...dead flat.

I waited to see if any stunts were being enacted in driving prices up and down but nothing happened.

Prices went more or less level and the volume was not out of the ordinary, unusual for a market going up in the way it did the previous week. I waited another 20 minutes and suddenly decided to clear out the lot because prices began to trickle downwards, and I did not like this.

I was able to close all of them for a profit of £322 less than I would have made had I closed them on the Friday. I never posted this because I had other positions in other instruments to take care of and time slipped by and I did not do it.

Then later prices began to slide, and I thought, and I discussed it with friends it would be an interesting excercise to observe mob behaviour in circumstances of this kind, because these opportunities for urban anthropology do not present themselves often, thinking it would be shallow and there would be no need for the rolled FT to be used.

To my surprise, the fall deepened and now all the creatures with their eyes on stalks came out from beneath the stones they inhabit, and I thought, and I pointed out to interested parties the behaviour developing around this event.

I decided to say nothing, since over the weekend I had read the story of Nathan Rothschild and his coup in the market in 1812 and how he did it....I thought how wise of him....and copied his idea.

All this time, I thought it would be an interesting excercise to study mob psychology to keep nearly everyone in the dark about this, to give all of us the opportunity, not exactly to wind everybody up, but to take the opportunity to observe.

This I have done, and am now satisfied that what I expected people here to do and say they have done and said. I am very satisfied with your responses because they prove yet again, albeit in another dimension, that everything is known in advance.

You have all been a very great help, in bringing to the notice of my friends exactly what can be expected of a crowd such as yours.

Many thanks once again.

I particularly would have liked to have this post under the number 1812 on this thread but unfortunately someone else took it.

Very Kind Regards to you All.

 

[bluetipex]

Now, who would like to speak out and say what they really think.

Do not be afraid - no one will bite you - and the majority here know nothing anyway - so it does not matter what you say.

I hope you were watching the levels as I explained - for this is a trading website - I think?

You ask what do we really think. Interesting....

If I were to describe what I think of your posts CYOF, I'd be instantly banned due to the torrent of expletives. So I shall refrain.

What do I think of think of the aim of the thread and whether it has been, or will be achieved:- I believe the issue of margin needs to be addressed. Surely it cannot be just ignored. As we stand today, the open positions are in a little "difficulty" shall we say. In any event it is my opinion that even if the market had rallied instead, it still would not have proven that writers have the edge, as someone else doing 20 successful Call Option trades would not prove that buyers have the edge.

In the first portion of the thread Socrates regularly updated his positions, so we all knew where everything stood. This has now stopped. Profitaker has kindly taken over the updating, so we can keep abreast of the situation. I would have preferred if Socrates had continued the regular update - his credibilty, in my eyes at least, would have been magnified 1000%. He could have also explained how, despite the state of the open positions, his hypothesis was still intact. I believe many of us would be very keen to hear that argument. Instead - near silence.

I still do truly believe that Socrates will provide us with a final summary, when all the positions have expired, along with his argument supporting his hypothesis, which we can either accept or reject. We can then, finally, all decide individually, whether we believe the stated aim of the thread has been achieved.

I cannot speak for anyone else, but if they were to describe what they really think, I believe that one or two might concur with the above.

 

[dc2000]

Actually, while you are at it full blast in your collective and individual nastiness, this is what happened.

On Friday the 23rd of February, all evening I had a feeling of regret at not having closed my positions.

This feeling did not leave me all that weekend.

On Monday morning, the 26th of February I came in here at 0730 with a mug of tea and sat down and waited for the market to open.

When it opened, to my surprise, it did so at the level of the close of Friday. Usually the first hour of the first session of the week involves some activity, but on this occasion...none...dead flat.

I waited to see if any stunts were being enacted in driving prices up and down but nothing happened.

Prices went more or less level and the volume was not out of the ordinary, unusual for a market going up in the way it did the previous week. I waited another 20 minutes and suddenly decided to clear out the lot because prices began to trickle downwards, and I did not like this.

I was able to close all of them for a profit of £322 less than I would have made had I closed them on the Friday. I never posted this because I had other positions in other instruments to take care of and time slipped by and I did not do it.

Then later prices began to slide, and I thought, and I discussed it with friends it would be an interesting excercise to observe mob behaviour in circumstances of this kind, because these opportunities for urban anthropology do not present themselves often, thinking it would be shallow and there would be no need for the rolled FT to be used.

To my surprise, the fall deepened and now all the creatures with their eyes on stalks came out from beneath the stones they inhabit, and I thought, and I pointed out to interested parties the behaviour developing around this event.

I decided to say nothing, since over the weekend I had read the story of Nathan Rothschild and his coup in the market in 1812 and how he did it....I thought how wise of him....and copied his idea.

All this time, I thought it would be an interesting excercise to study mob psychology to keep nearly everyone in the dark about this, to give all of us the opportunity, not exactly to wind everybody up, but to take the opportunity to observe.

This I have done, and am now satisfied that what I expected people here to do and say they have done and said. I am very satisfied with your responses because they prove yet again, albeit in another dimension, that everything is known in advance.

You have all been a very great help, in bringing to the notice of my friends exactly what can be expected of a crowd such as yours.

Many thanks once again.

I particularly would have liked to have this post under the number 1812 on this thread but unfortunately someone else took it.

Very Kind Regards to you All.

I guess its not worth asking for a post of broker statement to show this

I can hardly contain myself

 

[bluetipex]

Well, that explains everything - case closed.

Not quite.

My post above overlapped Socrates' post. Apologies.

So, has the aim of the thread been achieved or not?

This is the question we all need to decide the answer to.

It would be nice if Socrates re-stated his argument in the light of recent events, and if this is not forthcoming, then we each have to decide whether we believe his aim was achieved.

 

[jacinto]

Socrates,

regarding your post, I can only say a couple of things. some are related to the original topic of the thread, others releated to posting live trades and the reactions of the "mass" when things went well or went wrong.

related to the trades:
1) I do have respect for making live calls.
2) good you managed to close and didnt get burned
3) In my eyes, having posted the close of the trades would only have shown flexibility, and respect for seeing when things will go wrong, and acknowledging them in public (edit:either at a loss or at a profit).
3) waiting a couple of weeks to post this, and wait for the reaction of others to "study" mass psychology, is honestly not very credible, but well, will leave it as that.

Regarding the original topic of this thread
4) the original point of this thread was about the writer having the edge. you said the options would expire worthless, or most of them worthelss. I will still give the benefit of the doubt, and wait to find out if that is the case, and on that front, will keep an eye open.
5) this experience has opened my eyes regarding option trading (something i dont do, havent done, and wont do) and margin requirement.

J

edit: clearly, i have problems with numbering I wont change that, to prove my stupidity.

 

[SOCRATES]

Not quite.

My post above overlapped Socrates' post. Apologies.

So, has the aim of the thread been achieved or not?

This is the question we all need to decide the answer to.

It would be nice if Socrates re-stated his argument in the light of recent events, and if this is not forthcoming, then we each have to decide whether we believe his aim was achieved.

Not everybody can be a writer. You need to have deep pockets, strong nerves, patience, tenacity, steadfastness, you need to be approved, you need to have a deep understanding of what exactly drives markets, why, when and for what reason or reasons, you need to be able to make up your mind very quckly and change it very slowly,you need to be decisive, you need to be able to anticipate, you need to be able to deal with circumstances as they arise in a professional manner, you need to be able to remain calm and in control at all times.

 

[SOCRATES]

Socrates,

regarding your post, I can only say a couple of things. some are related to the original topic of the thread, others releated to posting live trades and the reactions of the "mass" when things went well or went wrong.

related to the trades:
1) I do have respect for making live calls.
2) good you managed to close and didnt get burned
3) In my eyes, having posted the close of the trades would only have shown flexibility, and respect for seeing when things will go wrong, and acknowledging them in public (edit:either at a loss or at a profit).
3) waiting a couple of weeks to post this, and wait for the reaction of others to "study" mass psychology, is honestly not very credible, but well, will leave it as that.

Regarding the original topic of this thread
4) the original point of this thread was about the writer having the edge. you said the options would expire worthless, or most of them worthelss. I will still give the benefit of the doubt, and wait to find out if that is the case, and on that front, will keep an eye open.
5) this experience has opened my eyes regarding option trading (something i dont do, havent done, and wont do) and margin requirement.

J

Very quickly, because I have to go.
I explained what I saw on the Monday morning and how I acted, and I acted in accordance with my experience which is considerable. My experience tells me no one can force a market to go either up or down. If the market is trickling down under those conditions it is obviously showing weakness. Why wait for that weakness to be resolved ? Or even worsened ? What for ? One must act in line with what is presented and not try to confront a developing deterioration in bullish market conditions with hope or whatever but to accept what is presented and act upon it without delay, immediately. It was because I acted in the way I did and additionally that I had other matters to attend to that I did not have time to post, and subsequent to that, the responses I began to get proved to be very interesting, not just to me, but to other observers as well.

 

[frugi]

Are you sure you sold on 26th February?

 

[Connie Brown]

If the market is trickling down under those conditions it is obviously showing weakness.

But the market didn't trickle down. That Monday it opened at Friday's Close and never went below the Open, finally closing up 30 pts.

 

[sandpiper]

there is no nastiness, other than the response from being messed around with by a self-confessed expert, who is nothing of the sort.

Actually, amongst other things, I believe Socrates has shown beyond question that he is an expert at 'messing around' with sheeple. The thread has been incredibly informative just on that basis alone and a fine demonstration of writers edge to boot.

 

[stoic]

Actually, while you are at it full blast in your collective and individual nastiness, this is what happened.

On Friday the 23rd of February, all evening I had a feeling of regret at not having closed my positions.

This feeling did not leave me all that weekend.

On Monday morning, the 26th of February I came in here at 0730 with a mug of tea and sat down and waited for the market to open.

When it opened, to my surprise, it did so at the level of the close of Friday. Usually the first hour of the first session of the week involves some activity, but on this occasion...none...dead flat.

I waited to see if any stunts were being enacted in driving prices up and down but nothing happened.

Prices went more or less level and the volume was not out of the ordinary, unusual for a market going up in the way it did the previous week. I waited another 20 minutes and suddenly decided to clear out the lot because prices began to trickle downwards, and I did not like this.

I was able to close all of them for a profit of £322 less than I would have made had I closed them on the Friday. I never posted this because I had other positions in other instruments to take care of and time slipped by and I did not do it.

Then later prices began to slide, and I thought, and I discussed it with friends it would be an interesting excercise to observe mob behaviour in circumstances of this kind, because these opportunities for urban anthropology do not present themselves often, thinking it would be shallow and there would be no need for the rolled FT to be used.

To my surprise, the fall deepened and now all the creatures with their eyes on stalks came out from beneath the stones they inhabit, and I thought, and I pointed out to interested parties the behaviour developing around this event.

I decided to say nothing, since over the weekend I had read the story of Nathan Rothschild and his coup in the market in 1812 and how he did it....I thought how wise of him....and copied his idea.

All this time, I thought it would be an interesting excercise to study mob psychology to keep nearly everyone in the dark about this, to give all of us the opportunity, not exactly to wind everybody up, but to take the opportunity to observe.

This I have done, and am now satisfied that what I expected people here to do and say they have done and said. I am very satisfied with your responses because they prove yet again, albeit in another dimension, that everything is known in advance.

You have all been a very great help, in bringing to the notice of my friends exactly what can be expected of a crowd such as yours.

Many thanks once again.

I particularly would have liked to have this post under the number 1812 on this thread but unfortunately someone else took it.

Very Kind Regards to you All.

and of course, very kind regards to you as well.

For you have not only shown that you are truly great at leaving out all the sufficient details for us to properly judge, and insult us at the same time, but have also had the downright audacity to say things in hindsight as well.

Very well done, I am truly and deeply impressed.

Bravo!

 

[SOCRATES]

and of course, very kind regards to you as well.

For you have not only shown that you are truly great at leaving out all the sufficient details for us to properly judge, and insult us at the same time, but have also had the downright audacity to say things in hindsight as well.

Very well done, I am truly and deeply impressed.

Bravo!

Yes, what about the downright audacity of saying in a public board about someone not personally known face to face that he ought to have his hands stamped on and crucified and so on, what about the audacity of that ?

I am very pleased you are impressed.

Many thanks for all your kind comments, noted.