market direction

[N Rothschild]

rough rice, new market i liked mid week. should hopefully put in a base at these levels and start an uptrend.

 

[N Rothschild]

silver, started off with a 10% move to the downside then exploded to the upside on various crap like europe and the CFTC coming down on the large short posistions.

looking a hit hairy at the moment, but still short

 

[N Rothschild]

and the exited trades so far have been

s&p.. well got out right before the crash..gutted.

ten year note - again out way to soon.

copper - very satisfied with this 900 point monster.


and not forgetting the **** ups. gbp and euro had to execute options to get out of both of these positions and since then have revised my portfolio to not include ANY forex.

crude as well had to get out of that.

the gains in copper alone covered these loses. so the portfolio is still nicely up.

charts in order of :ty, s&p, copper

 

[N Rothschild]

cotton is a good example of how little TA has a baring on my trades, i think it was dante mentioned i was selling right into support, i wasn't even aware of this at the time!

 

[Chartsy]

cotton is a good example of how little TA has a baring on my trades, i think it was dante mentioned i was selling right into support, i wasn't even aware of this at the time!

i don't think TA is sufficient, really. People get so lost in trading pins and support and trendlines and moving averages and stochastics, that they forget what they are looking at, they forget that EURUSD is an exchange rate and has implications beyond 'price'...don't realise that at times, 'funnymentals' blow technicals out of the water. Not to say TA is crappy, but i don't think people should limit themselves to the 'easy' way out. I was in a skype forex chatroom and talked about some economics, one the the people gave a sigh of relief, 'boy am i glad i don't have to care about economics in my trading'- that attitude to me, is why 95% fail.

 

[redart]

i don't think TA is sufficient, really. People get so lost in trading pins and support and trendlines and moving averages and stochastics, that they forget what they are looking at, they forget that EURUSD is an exchange rate and has implications beyond 'price'...don't realise that at times, 'funnymentals' blow technicals out of the water. Not to say TA is crappy, but i don't think people should limit themselves to the 'easy' way out. I was in a skype forex chatroom and talked about some economics, one the the people gave a sigh of relief, 'boy am i glad i don't have to care about economics in my trading'- that attitude to me, is why 95% fail.

How do you apply fundametnals to DAY trading though?

I guess I can see how one can take a long term view of a currency pair from fundamental analysis, but not to daytrade...?

 

[rawrschach]

for daytrading fundamental mean FA

general conditions only make a difference if you're swing trading

that attitude to me, is why 95% fail.

you may want to re-evaluate your understanding of causality. Fear, greed, impatience are far more potent at damaging an account.

 

[N Rothschild]

for daytrading fundamental mean FA

general conditions only make a difference if you're swing trading



you may want to re-evaluate your understanding of causality. Fear, greed, impatience are far more potent at damaging an account.

i would say they mean FA. much wiser to trade with the overall fundamental trend, than against it. even on an intra day basis

 

[rawrschach]

sure, I guess it was hyperbolic to say they mean FA

 

[wackypete2]

i would say they mean FA. much wiser to trade with the overall fundamental trend, than against it. even on an intra day basis

Agree. Day Traders can use FA and news to determine direction and use TA to configure your entries and exits.

It's all good

Peter

 

[Chartsy]

for daytrading fundamental mean FA

general conditions only make a difference if you're swing trading



you may want to re-evaluate your understanding of causality. Fear, greed, impatience are far more potent at damaging an account.

I'd like you to present me with a day trader with a lot of experience and have him tell me that conditions and sentiment don't have an effect on intraday trading.... Of course a slowly increasing budget deficit etc is not going to have an impending impact on your 1 minute chart. But i think that day traders should at least respect that sentiment/economics/news can drive volatility which ultimately effects daytrading.
Yeh fear greed impatience are killers, but so is laziness and what i like to call 'false' commitment to markets/trading. Take a look at Lipschutz, Paul Tudor Jones,Soros, they have this unbelievable commitment, if you watch that jones video you'll get me, if you read new market wizards you'll hear what lipschutz has to say about it, and Soros too. I think you'll find that their definition of commitment is not dossing about on forums, screwing around for a month and deciding,'hmmmm i think i have found a new method i may like' with no focus whatsoever.

 

[Chartsy]

Agree. Day Traders can use FA and news to determine direction and use TA to configure your entries and exits.

It's all good

Peter

i agree trading with TA is much better; fundamental trigger and technical entry as someone used to say to me a lot.

 

[rawrschach]

You think PTJ and Soros are day traders?

 

[Chartsy]

Nope, my point was that lack of commitment, proper commitment, is a killer and these traders show real commitment. actually PTJ day traded in his movie, but whatever.

 

[rawrschach]

Sure and my point is that gross generalisations either way redundant. *Can* you trade successfull purely on fundamentals? Sure. The converse is also true.

My point was that your saying that 95% of traders fail because they don't pay mind to general conditions is BS.

Anyway, carry on.

PS speaking of market wizards, Seykota was a pure technical trader.

 

[Chartsy]

so was Al Weiss,Richard Dennis. Maybe i came across wrong; my opinion is that MOST people who trade by TA only are doing it for the wrong reason, there are of course some brilliant technician traders who have the supertrader ingredients, like Seykota etc. But i think that the majority flock to TA because they saw an economics textbook and decided they didn't understand it so took the easy way. bad example, but to conclude: there are amazing traders, who are purists in both, just that usually those taking TA over FA are the people joining IG index and watching crappy little seminars on cable 5 minute hammers.

 

[brettus]

I'm gonna tell all the traders at my company that they must stop making all that money trading fundamentals and news because it means FA. Might aswell get rid of them because they dont know how to use charts either.

 

[rawrschach]

You can't figure out the difference between saying that you don't need to trade fundamentals and saying that you can't trade fundamentals? Really?

Besides, waiting for Philly Fed numbers and jumping in for 5 ticks is not what I meant by trading fundamentals.

 

[N Rothschild]

technicals are ****.

 

[rawrschach]

Sitting around waiting for Uni Michigan with their zombie announcer and trying to hit bids to make a couple ticks is a lot worse imo.

Almost as bad as thinking that that counts as fundamental analysis.