How to do analysis

well..i have never heard of such thing..please educate me on this euro dollar premium that means both the euro causing the sp dax to compress and us equity flows into euro equity.

seriously...outline exactly what your talking about and how it works..dont be cryptic.

baring in mind you called it "us reserve" i maybe completely out the loop but i have never heard the words us reserve used when it comes to us equity lol. again please enlighten..
 
I think he is referring to eur-usd basis swaps? I have no idea what the relevance of the yahoo table is. as for equity flows, i don't think they are that significant either way, they aren't large enough esp. relative to bank funding needs. Either way, the eur/sp correlation is near 0.8 atm so if the euro bounces, the sp is going with it or vice versa.
 
I wasn't being cryptic. All along I've been talking about the prevalence of exchange rate (and/or currency risk in this case) differentials on equity index spreads. The reasons for the spreads are many and I don't understand them all but some of it is just logic e.g. currency relative npv, institutional risk tolerance mandates that I mentioned earlier, VAR etc
 
im not sure you understand anything..like to use big words to make people believe you know what your talking about?
 
http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps124.pdf
http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp529.pdf
Causality Relationship between Foreign Exchange Rates and ...
http://www.eurojournals.com/irjfe_23_16.pdf

I have no idea why you feel the need to bandy insults about anyway. Quite immature really. You could probably learn something from CR. He doesn't seem to agree with me but doesn't need to stoop to the level of an arrogant child to make it known. How old are you?

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/files/Stock_Index_Spreading_0410.pdf


"The relationship between an investment in U.S.
stocks and an investment in European or Asian stock
markets is also affected by exchange rates. Thus,
we translated stock index values into U.S. dollars
(USD) as a common denomination and ran our
correlations again as shown in the appendix. These
correlations do not change considerably from
correlations derived using only spot index values
with some exceptions. "
 
scose the problem is that i think you have a very limited understanding of what your trying to talk about.

if you think i dont know how forex markets effect equities you are mistaken, but as for how you described it due to your limited understanding of it..no i dont know what your on about.

from these insights you have made, what position have you taken in the markets to capitalize on this information? im guessing none.
 
i think i get what your saying...your saying that the erp is now greater on euro equities so people are going to buy euro equities which means buying euros? (framing it in terms of risk premiums doesn't sound such a good idea tho). if so, i don't get that point. if you look at the papers the examples where the correlation works is singapore, turkey, and brazil. in all of these cases there was no long-term relationship and the problem is, seemingly, caused by large equity markets and small currency markets (as well as, most likely, small local banks that can't fund companies). this is the opposite of the euro which has very large banks (banks fund something like 80% of all capital needs in euro-area wheras in the US it is capital markets)/ very large currency markets and very small equity markets. i may have misunderstood but in that case the value of euro equities would need to be multiplied many times to have any effect (I couldn't find a wide measure of total equity market value in Europe but it is a lot less than US). I think I get what your saying though?

(i would add the fact that euro equities are pretty under-researched and most people aren't interested in them esp. in the US)
 
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Im bored so going to give a few tid bits now and again on how to do some proper analysis..and i dont mean TA guff.

Im bullish the SP atm (ofcourse sayings this outloud will prove me wrong)

There is about 30 reasons i am bullish as apposed to bearish..im not gona tell you most of them! but i will say one or two which will help the newbs out there think outside the box a little bit.

Markets open on tuesday.. 4 out of the last 5 years the first trading day of the year has been up. in general..first days of the week/month/quater is when funds do alot of their buying.."mutual fund monday". so on tuesday its the first day of the first month of the first quater. simples.

big bit of news on tuesday, the ism number! as much as the perma bears dislike it..there has been not bad data coming out of the us.

jobless claims hit a 3 year low in december before spiking up a little bit.

how does jobless claims compare to ism? well when claims drop, ism rises. as you can see in the chart. there is no point randomly guesing what kind of data is going to come out and guessing where the market will go..you need to look for actual relationships which can give an indication of whats going to happen.

so if we are to go up on monday i expect it to be driven by a good ism number.

maybe post some more later...

(orange jobless claims green ism)

Ok that's fine for direction. What does your analysis say about where and when to take the trade?
 
im already in it..

this thread isnt about what trades to take it was just about different ways to analyze the market..
 
From my experience they do and sometimes a lot (contrary to what seems reasonable).

Hope you don't mind a different view.

well technicals is just a way of showing human behaviour thats all it is..

so i think most "technical moves" that dont seem to be down to news/data is mainly insider trading on stuff that is soon to be news.
 
well technicals is just a way of showing human behaviour thats all it is..

so i think most "technical moves" that dont seem to be down to news/data is mainly insider trading on stuff that is soon to be news.

That's my understanding of technical analysis.
 
Firstly, you say I use "big words" when really I'm just trying to post in proper English... something I'm not going to apologise for. I use the words that I think will properly convey the point I'm putting across. Is that not what words are for?

Secondly, when do I act like a know all? You're the one who acts like a big shot on his dads money and regularly blows accounts worth thousands. I come on here to ask questions, as I you yourself experienced earlier in the thread.

Thirdly, the reason why I was having difficulty explaining my self is that I didn't expect you not to see how the whole euro risk episode has presented itself across other markets and I was trying to explain the mechanisms for a tightening spread - namely net flows out of US and into Dax (not necessarily directly but you seem to have an innate inability to read between the lines and quickly resort to infantile insults) in this case in the medium/long term and reasons why this could happen. The bulk of equity holders are institutions and are in it for the long term, as you already know, which is why I mentioned relative nvp and risk mandates as one reason - especially when year start portfolio rebalancing gets going.

Fourthly (lol), as you have always big a proponent of economics on the t2w, I thought that the chart would interest you in the capacity of what it presents/suggests in terms of regression analysis.
DAX Index Chart - Yahoo! UK & Ireland Finance
The shift (spread widening) either represents a new constant or possibly an adjustment to an existing constant. I've already told you what I believe this to be.
the fact the sp has held up so well in the face of a good little dollar rally
does this not lend weight?

Lastly(lolly loloth long post), what position would I take to capitalise on the of the spread tightening? Take a guess. Have I taken any positions? Nope.
 
@CR I just posted those papers and the CME thing as a bit of background into the subject.
I hope my previous post has cleared up my position a little more but you were basically on to what I was trying to put across in my own patented convoluted manner.(I thought I was being clear).
The only think I would add is that I believe that there is currently a large euro risk discounting in the euro stocks (lets not get into the bonds and how they factor in) that has pushed out the us/eu spread which I think will mean revert as the threat dissipates... if it does! When NT brought up the dax's trading levels and said he was holding out for 1330 all I said was that this would make things interesting. This has all stemmed from that!
 
yes there is a big euro risk weighing on European equities..but the reason for the decoupling is far simpler. the us data recently has been alot better than Europe..thats all it is
 
Which is why a bounce in Euro brought about by a reduction in euro risk premuum will make it all interesting ffs. Anyway I don't think i as simple as the data. Look at the timing.
 
yes there is a big euro risk weighing on European equities..but the reason for the decoupling is far simpler. the us data recently has been alot better than Europe..thats all it is

I think it a bit more than that, Rothy. At last year start FTSE was around 6000 to DOW 11700 - at the end FTSE 5572, DOW 12190. If it had kept pace FTSE would be up around 6200. That difference is a lot more than the better data would produce.

I'll certainly be looking for a snap back to more normal ratios with a stronger FTSE, but whether that comes from FTSE going down less (relatively) than DOW or up more is anyone's guess atm.

jon
 
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