FX trading Oct 29 - Nov02

[bbmac]

Lol Ampro.

Finishing here for day/week.

Gbpusd range this week so far: 345pips which is above last weeks 314 and above the 5 10 and 20week averages of 279, 294 and 288 respectively. Last months 577 came in inbetween the 5 10 and 20mth averages of 611 553 and 595pips respectively.

Today 99 pip range so far below yesterdays 120 and below the 5 10 and 20 day averages of 121, 140 and 131 respectively.

Lets hope that we are not going to see any contracation in volatility.

 

[ampro]

Yes, that wouldn't be a whole lot of fun really would it.

Avg daily range on Cable has been contracting since 2004, when it was printing (avg) 177. That rates a 30% reduction on current figures.

It's currently light by 13% on last years number. Not a particularly joyous trend.

Sort of coincides with the ramp up in (retail) participation around that time. Most of the chop shops were dumping their glitzy sales pitches all over the net around 03-04, as I recall, promising gold encrusted p*** pots at the end of the rainbow.

Not surprising really the averages have gradually squeezed inward.

 

[ampro]

Talking about ranges, one of my sisters fired this one across earlier. A Non-Farms range day comparison.

Again, highlights the 04 flavor in relation to other timespans.

 

[bbmac]

that graphic sure tells the story re NFP...thanx for posting

 

[bbmac]

Attaced is another example in the simple 1min extreme o/b or o/s entry technique referred to in previous posts today. The set-up osccured on gbpusd's late run up to that 0900 resistance area.

 

[ampro]

Your work on the smaller timeframes, especially the divergence angle, is fascinating to observe bbmac. I've never really courted or adopted the use of indicators or price aids, but obviously some folk (you) integrate them into their strategies with extremely confident application.

The colorful & frenetic activity would, I fear, very quickly pitch me into a darkened room to recover, but nonetheless, I enjoy viewing your contributions to the threads.

I was discussing Geppy's current status this afternoon with someone who also plots & seeks to confirm their analysis with any appropriate (rsi) divergence flags.

Funny, that the reasons we both arrive at to either engage or remain positioned in the common trade, are adjudged from slightly different avenues.

But each method of application equates (in this instance anyway) to a successful decision.

The chart, with his divergence lines included, is attached.

His 14 period rsi was missing from my chart....my s&r zone missing from his.

The cat once again, skinned with different shaped knives

 

[Crap Buddist]

I was discussing Geppy's current status this afternoon with someone who also plots & seeks to confirm their analysis with any appropriate (rsi) divergence flags.

Funny, that the reasons we both arrive at to either engage or remain positioned in the common trade, are adjudged from slightly different avenues.

But each method of application equates (in this instance anyway) to a successful decision.

hmmm, you know last night I got a signal to go long 238.00 , but funnily enough below it was 237.60 , yes I know some would say, well of course its below 238, being a lower number but, your anticipated support 237.60 didnt happen by its the reason . But my setup was showing strength building around that level.......

So indicators can actually help someone be free to observe S/R AND see the build or flow of strength is kicking in or not ?? Further because you can see this build before your anticipated support gets whacked one could say or anticipate a more likely support is going to actually act as support ??

 

[ampro]

So indicators can actually help someone be free to observe S/R AND see the build or flow of strength is kicking in or not ??

Further because you can see this build before your anticipated support gets whacked one could say or anticipate a more likely support is going to actually act as support ??

I haven’t really ventured along that thought track at all CB, but if someone can incorporate a single or selection of price aids to assist him or her in determining their next roll of the dice, then I don’t see any harm, do you?

I guess as long as one fully understands & appreciates the workings, as well as the limitations of their weapon (indicator) of choice, then what's to stop you assembling your own individual working template to help you do your job?

There are 2 well supported camps who have argued & debated the pro’s & cons of utilizing indicators since God was a boy, & like most things in this wonderful business, there is definitely no right or wrong. Particularly if one is extracting profit from the market.

Regards support & resistance: when you break it down what exactly does it represent! Lets keep it light & chilled, it’s the weekend & my batteries require topping up

Buying & selling pressure dictates s&r. When price begins visiting a previous zone of activity, then all we should be looking for is intent or confirmation that the lines we’ve plotted from the left hand side of the grid are showing possibilities of doing what it did yesterday, last week , last month or last quarter?

The harder that zone was fought previously, the likelier it is to stand up to inspection again. Maybe, probably

If we’re in a bull trend, approaching a fulcrum & the market participants still regard that level as fair value, then the Bears will absorb the Bulls offensive play & spin prices back. When they’ve filled their bellies & it no longer interests them, the Bulls will attack the line again, push thru (maybe pop back for a test to ensure the bears have rolled over) & advance to next level Bear defense.

Ok, you could burrow deeper into it & touch on the concept of reciprocity blah blah, but we'll keep it clean

The (currency) cash markets don’t afford you the luxury of volume to shine a light on proceedings, so you gotta use the construction & behaviour of the candles/bars on & around your particular battle (s&r) zones to offer you a heads up yeah?

If you can assemble another piece of kit which assists in pumping your edge in tandem with these so called s&r levels, then I guess that just might put you in an advantageous position?

I highlight the word YOU, because not everyone will see the world thru your eyes or possess your determination, confidence & awareness etc.

Never dismiss anything & never dance to the tune of someone else’s fiddle!

 

[Crap Buddist]

Trading without wings.....

I haven’t really ventured along that thought track at all CB, but if someone can incorporate a single or selection of price aids to assist him or her in determining their next roll of the dice, then I don’t see any harm, do you?

howdy.

hmmm depends on what the individual wants from trading & perhaps more importantly, what the individual wants from themselves. Still no harm, but helps if the question is asked and answered maybe.

I think a part of it is the fact that people today, seldom stop and ask themselves what they actually want. They are not true to themselves, by golly..

No point trolling through the indicator stockpile if the person concerned knows that, for them anyway, price is the best/only indicator needed to determine trading value points in the present cycle of the money flow.

As you suggest, being open to new idea's is always a cool thing I think. As the saying goes, a mind is a terrible thing to close. Maybe theres a correlation, closed mind = eyes wide shut.

hmm as for arguments re. price V indicators , the way i see it, price is an indicator itself, so aint people arguing about the same thing? Demand & Supply sets price, cause/effect , price is secondary, only people as always. Know the price of everything , yet the value of nothing, oh yeah dat for sure, How does everyone we feel about that ? makes sense or a load of ...... ox . I dunno, its like the butterly flapping wings and hurricanes, is it?

the butterflies gentle wing beat is.. What do you want from yourself? and now lets play this song, which is quite appropriate..

I'm flying without wings.(ehh, X factors on tonight) trading without wings, = what do I want from myself,(people have not asked it) hence trading without wings. ehh, wait a minute even on the bloomberg ad, in the quotes....... and here it is...

"A man without wings has no imagination" Muhamid Ali.. LOL and I hope thats the right quote.... but spookily ties in...


I hope this puts absolutely everything in a clear light... for who? god knows.