FX trading Oct 29 - Nov02

[trendie]

new week, complete with extra hour in bed.

I am going into silent running mode, as I keep breaking my promise to cut back my postings here, and spend more time reading books rather than messing about, fun though it is.

keep each other informed of key news events.
would be useful if analysis of some minor pairs was introduced.

or some kind of new weekly topic, like money management, etc.

have a good one.

 

[fibonelli]

I couldn't resist posting a quarterly chart of CADUSD futures :cheesy:

 

[JillyB]

Morning Everyone,

Looks like a quiet day today - not much news around - then again there wasn't any news last Monday and we still had a really big move that day.

Prices are still moving within a upward biased channel and will probably just meander around for most of the day. FXCM say that offers are touted above 2.0585 - so just above this area could see a turn point. I will be watching on a 1 hour chart to see if I get any signals.

I took +7 pips scalping my entry last night for my overnight system - then I decided to leave it alone as the trend was definitely up and my trade was a sell. So far this morning the system trade would be looking to take break-even at 2.0543/46. The stop is at 2.0588/91 - so the system would still be in the trade.

 

[hornblower]

I have had a look around this morning , just unable to see any upside
price is running in narrow ranges
so I am looking for a short ,
but there seems to be no news to move it up and down
just going to have to wait


its only a few months ago when cable kicked off at 7-8 am
and ended the run about 12
and after lunch the us market opened and we started all over again
the good old days
will they ever return ?

 

[ampro]

An early London kicker on the Pound-Yen for those looking for the divergence play of last weeks theme on the threads.

This pair maintaining bullish bias thru 234.50 s&r zone. Pretty low risk shunt towards last weeks highs at the 235.80 if you were seeking a bit of early week value maybe?

Cable's bouyency at it's own s&r zone (2.0550) not harming the strength either!

 

[bbmac]

Cable makes a break out of the asian/overnight range 0556-0526 before retracing back into twice from that 0575-90 area. Support found at the 15/30min asc t/line and area of asian highs sees another break long to the current highs at 0626.

Offers at this 0620/30 with some around the current yearly highs 0652 likely too say mni. Currently broken offers at 0595/0605(10) providing support with last real 5min potential RBS zone at 0587-71, last potential 15/30min at that 0584-0554 area.

Medium bids at 0565/50 and 0530/20 now say mni, 0505/0495 on any deeper pullback.

Dly R2 comes in around 0622 with 161.8% extension of friday at 0629, with Dly r3 pivot at 0663-72 area today. Dly r1 is 0573-79 area.

 

[bbmac]

This is the situation that existed on my 'small' confirming charts at that 0620-30 resistance. Although the 5min is shown here it was a similar picture on my trigger 1min and 'next' t/f the 15min. Ie a strong breech of the upper donchian channel [pinmk] and a breech too of the 1st fib tunnel extreme [red] and the fib channels [yellow and aqua horizontal.]

The resistance was medium offers at 0620-30, 161.8% swing of fridays move at 0629, area of Dly R2 pivot and 25/7 hi.

I had imperfectly formed set-ups on my 1min trigger and 5min intermediate main charts (Rev A(ii) with 5miun Reversal Extreme) so this extra confluence of tech reasons is sometimes useful. I was discussing with a trader earlier that perhaps the upside seems limited at that level because of the inevitable offers at the yearly highs area?

Cable now finding some support in that last 5min potential RBS zone mentioned above. Fair intraday pullback though so far off the highs with a 98pip lo-hi range so far.

 

[bbmac]

Another example of time frames providing confirmation to each other.

Cable sells off the highs 0626 area to find support in the overlap of the last potential 5min and 15min+ RBS zones referred to above, specifically at 0575, at which point a regular divergence set-up on the 1min confirmed by a hidden divergence set-up on the 5min intermediate and 15min next time frames present themslves.

Will price make a new high above current daily highs? I don't know but from an 0583ask entry is +10 in profit at time of writing

(1min Reversal C with 5min Reentry type 1 and 15min Reentry type 4 confirm in 5min rbs zone.)

 

[bbmac]

Better set-up at that 0572 level re rentering long trend ...The 15/30min trend line/fridays highs / Daily h4 cam target pivot/38.2fib of move up from 0480 and still in the last 5min RBS zone. Ie 1min and 5min Regular seq/immed bullish divergence in osc now with the 15min hidden immed divergence to confirm. A better confluence of support potential....but 5min has put in 2 lower highs in the retace and marginally 2 x lower lows, so again, not sure about intraday upside potential , let's see what happens...set-up saw around +18 at time of writing.

 

[bbmac]

The 5min and 15min set-ups described in post above are posted here re screenshots, see how the 15min hidden div is better formed now.

You'd still have been in on the first entry really re your stop but the second potential support area was better, as described above.

 

[bbmac]

heres that 15min supp t/line I was referring to above, it shows on the 30min well also. It fomred part of the Friday highs/38.2 retrace of move up from 0480, 5 and 15min RBS zone ....support on the last move up following the trace down from highs today at 0626 area.

 

[bbmac]

the screenshots show firstly the 5min LH lower High that is causing some resistance again on the recovery back up to the 0613 area.

The second screenshot is the 1min Reversal set-up that presented itself there for a few pips.

The area was Dly cam H5 target and the Wkly cam H3 break or bounce pivot. No 5min confirming set-up so a small tdiscretionary target ensued.

(Reversal C)

 

[ampro]

This pair maintaining bullish bias thru 234.50 s&r zone. Pretty low risk shunt towards last weeks highs at the 235.80 if you were seeking a bit of early week value maybe?

The value sure got pitched north today huh! Positive (stock) markets boosting the carry, helping to bat this pair north with FTSE adding 0.4% on the day.

A minor pocket of upside at 236.60 has contained it into NY trade, but no real heavy flak on Geppy until it begins to threaten 237-237.60.

Offered the opportunity of booking a little profit, if trading multi contracts, up there at the lower high (236.30/40).

Price has reacted at last weeks highs (235.80) on the pullback from the inverted hammers up there, which also marks the 38.2% of the day’s current range.

This mornings longs have no reason to fully liquidate as yet. The move back up into NY trade really needs to be tested sufficiently.

There are clear markers back down if the risk aversion kicks in between here & the FOMC & GDP numbers.

 

[bbmac]

and where did cable find support on the run back to todays highs after the resistance at that 0613 area described above.....5min screenshot tells all

 

[bbmac]

Final postin today the 5min regular immediate divergence confirming set-up to the 1min trigger at the daily highs resistance zone again 0620-30. Although the 3rd cci based indicator wasn't showing divergence it was at an extreme.

(M29-10-07, 1610pm 5min Reversal A (ii) confirm)

Some nice set-ups again today, all in all, with that big pullback into Fridays high area being now see-ing the intraday highs area tested again.


Resistance to the upside remains at this 0625/30 area ahead of o650/60 area of current yearly highs.
other stuff of note: 0663 is the 1% ma envelope and 0665 is the monthly lows of Nov'79. 0680 is Mthly R1 pivot.

 

[combotrader]

MA`s

BBMAC

Interesting as always - I like the simplicity of yr approach - altho you manage to make it sound complicated ! LOL.

I notice you use an 8/12/9 MACD and also an 8/15/9 Oscillator moving average. Are these not very closely related ? I mean, withthe MACD you are effectively subtracting the 12ema from the 8 and doing a 9ema of the difference. WIth the OsMA, you are also subtracting 15 from 8ema etc. Would these not give you the same indications most of the time ?
Sure you have a reason to be using them though and look forward to hearing them.

Long 583 at test of 5min support and breakout. Exit at 615 after test of high. That has been it for today.

Yrs
CT.

 

[bbmac]

combotrader, hi, Thx for the comments/question.

You are correct: My system/methodology is as simple as it gets, identifying repeatable high probability patterns of oscillator extremes/divergence with band/channel deviation at pre-identified areas of support/resistance, that results in with and against trend set-ups.

Therein lies the answer to why I use the macd and osma together when they are closely related.

Firstly I prefer histograms, and secondly, I identified a key high probability pattern of divergence when these oscillators two are viewed together, as summarised here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=26748 -and- detailedin the documents here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=25770.

The 'key pattern' of divergence revolves around seperate peak/trough regular immediate/sequential osma divergence at the same time as same or seperate peak/trough regular immediate/sequential macd divergence for reversal set-ups and seperate peak/trough osma and macd hidden immediate divergence for reentry to trend set-ups.

In respect of Extreme readings, again i identified two key patterns of extremes when these two oscillators work together.

a. They either both reach an extrteme reading together and price is deviated from all 4 bollingers -or-

b. osma reaches an extreme first, then macd makes an extreme, higher/lower than the reading when osma made the extreme, at which point osma now shows same peak/trough divergence and the 10 bol (fastest) has come inside the 20 bol.

Of course all these set-ups require identifiable support/resistance and a price action confirmation to be valid, and I use the '3rd' cci based oscillator as another unrelated confirmation.

So there you have it, It's really just the patterns they form when viewed together. I hope this is a suitably complicate way of expalining a simple phenomenon, Lol.

 

[qsx]

Here we got 2 variants:
if the price break’s 2.0529 the bull trend will be broken. until that we got up trend.
To pictures:
you don’t have to trade in wave B, because it can be incorrect wave. It’s better to trade in C.It has 5 waves and after the 1st in C in the target zone of 2nd of C position sell and stop above the botoom of 1st in C.If you got any questions just ask

 

[ampro]

Japs batted this pair back to the 62% line during their shift, but it maintained the higher low shunt into London, & as expected, finds initial flak at this (237.0) round number ahead of 237.50-70. Still nothing to do until it negates the higher low step, which now stands at aforementioned 62% of the weeks range (235.30).

Pound strong across the board again into today’s London shift, encouraging the carry punt hold for now.

It’s banged it’s head at the 2.4100 resistance line v/s Swiss & continues to make ground this week v/s Euro off it’s multi-year 0.700 supports, add to that the spanking it’s handing out to the buck & all’s well in the Sterling camp at present.

Would expect some profit taking & adjustments ahead of tomorrows offerings & Friday’s payrolls, but barring any unexpected spanners being tossed into the spokes, there ought to be more mileage in Cable & Geppy!

They're still hold & buy on dip material until these higher low steps begin to crumble on the hourly+ frames.

 

[shadowninja]

I guess we just saw the market's reaction to the Redbook!