FX trading Oct 29 - Nov02

[TheBramble]

Divergence on Cable looks set for a potential short. Which I am at 686. Stop 712 target 615.

 

[JillyB]

Yes, I've spotted that one as well - nice divergence.

The price also ties in with the 161% fib extension of the previous downswing at 2.0692, so it is possible for some more downside from this level. Support is around 2.0650 ish, so with a tight stop it would give a good risk/reward ratio.

Unfortunately it doesn't meed my criteria for taking a trade - as I don't trade divergences (perhaps I should do though?!) - so I'm just going to trade it on a demo account.

Good luck with it.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Colonel Coin's hopping mad with shorts on GBPJPY 237.10/20 on rumours Billy The whad's pumping and dumping his longs.

Risk, mark up to a new high. should be short lived. but see it trading off from here essentisally for the next 4/8 hours... +

 

[TheBramble]

Good luck with it.

Dunno about that...it's not moving as fast as I'd expect and given the lack of momentum, I've moved the stop to B/E.

I would have been happy to leave my stop where it was if the trade needed room to breathe, but it doesn't, so I wont.

 

[combotrader]

Divergence on Cable looks set for a potential short. Which I am at 686. Stop 712 target 615.

Were you looking at the 5 min TF ?
Its now gone sideways for a little walkabout

CT

 

[Crap Buddist]

Colonel Coin's hopping mad with shorts on GBPJPY 237.10/20 on rumours Billy The whad's pumping and dumping his longs.

Risk, mark up to a new high. should be short lived. but see it trading off from here essentisally for the next 4/8 hours... +

holding, next update 1 am, long old night looming..... stil looks good for shorts if it flicks up 237.10/20 , still reading overnight down pressure at the mo......


Learn patience quickly , is the lesson from this one. Lets see what happens... getting some kip might be a better option though..

 

[Crap Buddist]

my setups flipped to long, taken a small loss 12, now long 237.26, 236.75/80 looks a better long but, I cant watch it, so come daylight should be good.... upside from here on.....

Should attempt to bust higher looking ahead 4/8 hours (ive heard that before)

Cocoa time anyhow..

 

[TheBramble]

Were you looking at the 5 min TF ?
Its now gone sideways for a little walkabout

Yes it was and yes it has rather. Don't normally take a short trade on a new 52wk High, but given the clarity of the divergence thought I’d ride that pullback before taking a refreshed Long. Didn’t work out and got a scratch trade for my efforts.

There weren’t any other confirming indications for the short and it was highly speculative so no complaints.

There’s always something refreshing about new territory.

Good trading today.

 

[ampro]

The savvy operators will be paring off (booking a bit more profit) into the strength up here on the European pairs ahead of today’s data. Same on the Jap pairs at their current stage s&r levels I shouldn't wonder.

No point stretching the risk unnecessarily, might as well pass that onto the intraday crew!

Long bias on Euro/Cable + short Yen v/s the Europeans is still the play into the NY shift. Reducing the risk until the mist clears on the rates issue would be the sensible option I guess. Looks to be some skittish (brash) players out there judging by the prices leading into London. I'd have thought they'd have begun letting the wind out of these sails by now.

Think I’d rather have a fair chunk of the past 10 days or so profits sitting in the bank & watch the game with relatively loose stops on the remainders, than get sucked into all this emotive to-ing & fro-ing

Anyway, good luck if you're playing today peeps.

 

[TheBramble]

A sideline day for many intraday boys & girls as you suggest.

Given expectations of a quarter to one-half percent cut, it’s going to have to be something quite unexpected to do anything other than continue the hit on the Dollar.

Any cut would in theory induce additional negative bias, but now, with expectations as above, if it’s less than one-half percent, it’ll be additionally negative.

Seems like a Tails you lose – Heads you don’t win day for the Dollar.

If it goes true to form (and if the above shot in the dark is anywhere close) Cable should take a quick dive to hook the unwary and then scream on up.

Have I got that right (a techie blindly stumbling through the fundamentals here… )

 

[ampro]

It’s always the same when speculation & the rumor mill intensifies over interest rates, or the flavor of the (economical data) day.

They’re pumping it this week on the chatter that they’ll (the Fed) maybe require to ratchet down to 3.75 to shoulder the continuing fall-out over the housing woes.

You then got the camp shouting about a small pre-emptive strike (1/4pt) with strong rhetoric, biased to containment. The Fed can’t win really whatever they do LOL.

Too low & inflation begins to bite – not low enough & housing knocks onto the wider economy.

They’ll cut & send out the same tired old message via their minutes that they got their fingers on the pulse & will be awaiting further data/developments blah blah.

They can’t afford to feed the $ Bears any more at this point. The bucks in enough s*** without them adding to it with overly aggressive chatter.

It’ll get reflected in the (fair value) prices anyway. Sure, the aggressive specs will run & pump it to extremes, but there will still be good opportunities to catch it via pullbacks and/or breaches of the short-term peak-trough steps at key levels.

If you listened to both sides of the argument, you’d never execute a trade – I always find it best to rein in your risk as these economic developments come into view, let them blow themselves around a while & hop on the reactions!

That way, you maintain your value whilst hedging your bets leading into the news, & play your hand when the scared or nervous money has been shaken out or liquidated prematurely.

Plus if you’re positioned sensibly with decent stop/risk protection, you can job your positions via the intraday’s back to (your) appropriate peak-trough/trend levels if you’re still confident of the current bias.

 

[hornblower]

A sideline day for many intraday boys & girls as you suggest.

Given expectations of a quarter to one-half percent cut, it’s going to have to be something quite unexpected to do anything other than continue the hit on the Dollar.

Any cut would in theory induce additional negative bias, but now, with expectations as above, if it’s less than one-half percent, it’ll be additionally negative.

Seems like a Tails you lose – Heads you don’t win day for the Dollar.

If it goes true to form (and if the above shot in the dark is anywhere close) Cable should take a quick dive to hook the unwary and then scream on up.


Have I got that right (a techie blindly stumbling through the fundamentals here… )

I think you have summed it up for today
I am going to be looking at wheat ,corn and soyerbean today
and see if we can make a bob or two

 

[FXSCALPER2]

I don't know why I find this amusing. Maybe I am sadist, but I can just see the number of people who will sell dollars even if the fed hikes by just .25 basis points. If the fed plumps for that, there will be lots and lots retail fellas that will get killed because the USD is going to recover at least for the time being. If they hike is .25, I am getting out of my dollar shorts and maybe even going short GBPUSD for a quickie, depending on whether I can do it at a good price. Buy the rumour, sell the fact.

 

[TheBramble]

If you listened to both sides of the argument, you’d never execute a trade – I always find it best to rein in your risk as these economic developments come into view, let them blow themselves around a while & hop on the reactions!

That way, you maintain your value whilst hedging your bets leading into the news, & play your hand when the scared or nervous money has been shaken out or liquidated prematurely.

Quote of the day (so far) for me. Nice.

 

[TheBramble]

I am going to be looking at wheat ,corn and soyerbean today

Well, you would be, wouldn't you....

 

[Crap Buddist]

Still holding GBPJPY long 237.26, after that disgusting sideways action from yesterday afternoon, I was sick of looking at it... No wonder the short failed not even a whip to test 236.80 ? not even from Euro/london this Am ,, They dont want to let it down yet clearly....


Bloomberg did report Greenspan anticipates further errosion of the dollar into next year, but he did also call a top in the China stock index last may and its , well, up, up, up......

 

[Crap Buddist]

Long closed +138 exit 238.64. Time for a fry up.

 

[combotrader]

Cable dive

Was that the one that went from 7446 to 714 ?? Good divergence on the 5min but was too late on it. My target for the dive was 710. Some res becoming supp there on the 1hr chart - which is now looking quite anaemic for the bulls.

However, long at 727 - where it got stuck for ages this morning with a stop at 680. Prepared to hold all the way into NY session unless starts slipping badly...

CT

 

[bbmac]

Screenshot is of the 5min chart at todays current high gbpusd. You can see that although the bands formed a 'Reversal type C' pattern at the red dot, there was not yet clear bearish oscillator divergence (reg or seq) as price had yet to make an equal or higher high. It did so at the point marked by the yellow dot and the set-up was there a Reversal type A (ii).....the difference between a reversal A and reversal A (ii) being that with an A(ii) there is 3 band deviation inside the longest band, the 60 (lime green) whereas with a standard Reversal type A there is 4 band deviation.)

combotrader: hope this is all clear, lol, hehehehe

Seriously though a nice set-up (confirmed my trigger) albeit aginst prevailing trend....just got to remember on some of these Reversal set-ups that against a strong trend you are probably only going to get a pullback. (it's not the top till it's the top!!) Indications of the extent of any pullback can sometimes be provided by (i) how far the divergence/extreme readings in oscillators extend up the time frames, (ii) The relative strength of the Support/Resistance, and (iii) the relationship between price and it's historical volatility/ATR.

 

[Crap Buddist]

See if this GBPJPY falls out of bed from 239.23, bearish on this beast....