FX Trading May 21-25

[jacinto]

nice one jilly

 

[trendie]

the T2W eco-calendar doesnt show it, but the FF one shows a "red" (significant) eco-news event at 08:30am today.

8:30 GBP BOE Meeting Minutes

 

[jacinto]

agree trendie. I will be sidelined till after the event.

me thinks the market has already priced in 1 more hike, and a second with lower probability of happenening. I see 2 possible surprises:

Upside: a hint for increasing probability of 2 hikes, opening the door for a third one
downside: killing the possibility of the 2nd hike.

lets see.

I fancy shorts sub 30, or from 70, but nothing in between. as much as the higher highs higher lows keep materialising, i still dont see much more upside. guess BOE will tell.

schoolrun for me. later

j

 

[JillyB]

Morning Jilly,
I've just exited at your 7:40 exit time for a small (~10 pip) improvement on my level at 10pm last night so thank's very much for the guidance. I may start following your method (with small trade amounts) to get a feel for what is involved.

Can I ask (more questions!) how far back you tested this approach?

Hi a_gnome,

This is my third week of real-time trading the system. The first week was +54 pips and last week was +59 pips. At the moment I'm still just trading £1 per pip, until I'm happy with it. Maybe next week or the week after I'll start to increase the trade size.

I only have back-testing as far as 14th November, as to get the 7.40am exit, I need data on a small time frame. There was only one losing week which was was -20 pips and this was w/c 22nd January. The best week was w/c 12th March with +240 pips.

Since I started trading it live - the pip gain seems to have reduced a little, but it's still reliable.

Since 14th November losing days were:
7th December
19th December
8th January
17th January
24th January
25th January
8th February
14th February
6th March
22nd March
27th March
5th April
10th April
24th April
3rd May
22nd May

 

[JillyB]

the T2W eco-calendar doesnt show it, but the FF one shows a "red" (significant) eco-news event at 08:30am today.

8:30 GBP BOE Meeting Minutes

Thought it was 9.30am

 

[Trader333]

It is at 9.30 BST which is 8.30 GMT, it can all get confusing sometimes


Paul

 

[zuke]

Itll be interesting to see if it was a 9-0 vote..particularly if Blanchflower voted for a hike.

 

[zuke]

Stopped out for -16 and now biased to the long side.

EDIT: Just been filled on my buy order. Hence, I am:

6 lots
LONG 9753
STOP 9732
TP 1 - 9774 (s/o 1 lot and move trade to b/e)
TP 2 - 9795 (s/o 2 lots)
TP 3 - 9837 (s/o 3 lots)

In contrast with JillyB..stopped out for -21 On the sidelines until the BOE minutes now.

 

[jacinto]

sorry to hear that zuke.

I wonder what caused the move. eurousd down. but think usdchf is possibly driver of the move.

I am unsure of what will happen. as much as i favour the downside, the decreasing daily ranges just point out to a violent breakout. question is in which direction. time to study charts to see what is forming..

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Cable has traded roughly as expected. We have seen 1.9750 breached and a subsequent run through to 1.9770. However overall upward performance has fallen short of expectations. Profits have been taken in the Cable and Euro long positions today.

Next move: A reversal at the current level (1.9765) and selling into the failed run at 1.9800. Targeting the much lower 1.9680 area.

Cable and Euro trading seems to be well bid all the way to 1.9680. We may see the lower level sooner rather than later. Short positions in both are being held for the duration of the London and maybe into the US sessions. Shorts from 1.9765 and 1.3462 levels yesterday. Targeting Cable at around 1.9680

 

[Atilla]

Hi everyone,

I think we are heading up as yesterday. Some retracements are possible. Worst scenario I have is it falls to 1.9700 and picks up again.

Dark cloud on the horizon is gold. I feel it is intricately linked to value of dollar and it is still going down and this doesn't make sense to me. Would prefer to have harmony in the fundamentals when considering related instruments.

Will be looking to go long on cable. However, sentiments not as strong as yesterday about direction. We'll watch it for a while.

Good trading everyone.

 

[jacinto]

expecting a spike then a selloff.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Waiting to sell into any loft up here, for a retest of that low just gone in . between 1.9730/40 glancing at the chart. dont know if i'll get that, but... waiting

 

[smbtnt]

Can someone please explain the significance of the 9765 level yesterday, was it a pivot point, Fib level, or just plain old S/R switch zone? It was mentioned by quiet a few members yesterday before the high was hit. Maybe I should have taken heed of this in advance and cashed up on my 9720 long instead of hanging around for my original target of 9780...
Thanks

 

[jacinto]

shorted 46, and 20 pip stop. probably too early, but will see.

 

[Crap Buddist]

1st attempt, Short 19746 stop 1.9773

 

[smbtnt]

Inv Hs

Long off 9735 off the 15 min, looking at the INV HS on the 60min for target of 9860ish.
Stops at 9700.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Looking at it could trade up to 1.9760 for shorts, any higher though might be interesting.

 

[atomm]

Eurusd

The eurusd is still heading down.
It is fascinating how FXInsights is always bullish on this pair, as its last buy recommendation on 22/5/2007 and a few before this. The 4-hour and daily chart still do not show any sign of bottoming.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Just reading confirmed sell 1.9748/49, lets see what happens.