FX Trading May 21-25

Cable at 2.000 and above will happen


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Anyone heard from DC lately? Last I read he was short just before the big move up two days ago. Just wondering how he got on or whether he reversed his position.
 
Anyone heard from DC lately? Last I read he was short just before the big move up two days ago. Just wondering how he got on or whether he reversed his position.

whats been rattling through my head with the shorts 1.9750 odd, is, is the market gonna wring their necks, and drive through 1.99 and beyond? taking its time to retrace to at least 1.9770/80 ? is that still coming?
 
Cable traded within a steady 30 point range overnight. Early morning saw a 20 point upward move to the 1.9880 levels only to be swiftly rejected, retreating 30 points to the 1.9850 area. Cable now looks set to continue the 30 point range bound trade for the remainder of the morning.

Cable: A lower move is likely to come later this morning, touching the 1.9820 level. US open should see continued Dollar demand taking a further toll on cable. Sub 1.9800 is likely before the close of the London session.


Addition:

Cable: A quick re-test of the 1.9880 level is possible if a break below 1.9850 is not sustained.


Euro: Update.

With buyers of the Euro waiting in the wings from the 1.3455 levels and above, and a possible Cable re-test of the 1.9880 level, which will have a knock-on affect on the Euro pair and a self perpetuating situation could quickly develop. Giving rise to a considerable rally in both GBP and the Euro. If this proves to be the case then Cable could see 1.9960 and the Euro could be on song well above 1.3500 once again.
 
I dont think Ill be trading Cable until I see a clean break (an hourly close) above 1.99 or below 1.98.

Added to my Shorts on GBP/CAD and closed out my Dow trade for +30. The CAd trade will decide whether my Bank Holiday is spent in the Cotswolds or Colchester!
 
Long 1.9854, stop at the mo 1.9818

Hi guys,

My view on cable today is to take a break. Just to much work to do. I came across this piece of news which reflects my view and I thought was an interesting read.


USD Buoyed Against Eur, JPY by Korman Tam


At 4:30 AM UK Q1 GDP y/y (exp 2.8%, prev 2.8%)
UK Q1 GDP q/q (exp 0.7%, prev 0.7%)
At 10:00 AM US April Existing Home Sales (exp 6.14 mln units, prev 6.12 mln units)

The dollar remains buoyed against the euro and yen following yesterday’s upbeat US housing data, with new home sales posting its steepest gain in 14-years. Sentiment over central bank interest rate decisions continues to be the primary driver in the foreign exchange market, as expectations for a Fed rate cut this year are slowly diminishing, ultimately supporting the greenback.

The OECD released its semi-annual Economic Outlook this week and called for global central banks, with the exception of Japan, to “err on the side of tightness” given lingering inflationary pressure. Further, it urged the Fed to refrain from shifting to an easing stance until early 2008, citing “more persistent than expected” inflation in the US. The OECD anticipates two more rate hikes from the ECB to 4.25% and sees further possible tightening from the BoE throughout the remainder of this year as well. Also, to highlight the growing disparity between the economies of the US and the rest of the world, the OECD cut the growth forecast for the US while simultaneously upwardly revising the growth rates for the Eurozone, UK, Japan and Australia.

Traders will turn their attention US April existing home sales, due out at 10:00 AM. Markets are expecting home sales to improve to 6.14 million units, versus 6.12 million units from March. Stabilization in the US housing market provides

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GBP Steady Near Highs

The sterling maintains its strength versus the greenback following this week’s hawkish Bank of England minutes, which revealed a unanimous vote to hike rates by 25-bp in its last meeting and discussion for 50-bp tightening as well. In the coming session, traders will shift focus to UK growth data with the release of Q1 GDP at 4:30 AM New York time. First quarter growth is seen unchanged at 0.7% from the previous quarter and on an annualized basis steady at 2.8%.

Cable continues to consolidate near its highs around 1.9850, with resistance seen at 1.9875, backed by 1.99 and 1.9930. Subsequent ceilings will emerge at 1.9960, backed by 2 and 2.0050. On the downside, support begins at 1.9830, followed by 1.98 and 1.9765. Additional floors are eyed at 1.9715, followed by 1.9675 and 1.96.


Good luck everyone...
 
Cable traded within a steady 30 point range overnight. Early morning saw a 20 point upward move to the 1.9880 levels only to be swiftly rejected, retreating 30 points to the 1.9850 area. Cable now looks set to continue the 30 point range bound trade for the remainder of the morning.

Cable: A lower move is likely to come later this morning, touching the 1.9820 level. US open should see continued Dollar demand taking a further toll on cable. Sub 1.9800 is likely before the close of the London session.

Addition:

Cable: A quick re-test of the 1.9880 level is possible if a break below 1.9850 is not sustained.


Euro: Update.

With buyers of the Euro waiting in the wings from the 1.3455 levels and above, and a possible Cable re-test of the 1.9880 level, which will have a knock-on affect on the Euro pair and a self perpetuating situation could quickly develop. Giving rise to a considerable rally in both GBP and the Euro. If this proves to be the case then Cable could see 1.9960 and the Euro could be on song well above 1.3500 once again.


Cable: Update

Heavy downward pressure on Cable’s ability to record a high over the last 2 hours or so, may now be pointing to a low of 1.9830 by 12:30. Any breach of the 1.9820 (as above) will certainly see cable wave goodbye and head south.
 
Because I'm not trading my plan - which is a big, big problem!

hmm yes, I can see how we go through this stage, I mean do we trust our plan? is that why we hop about etc. If we trust our plan, or have decided to trade it. Then the next task is to trust ourselves, to execute it. Old Mark Douglas had some ideas on that. Have you read it . The disciplined trader ? Might help, give some ideas to study.

He also wrote trading in the Zone , another book. I havent read that one, but some people are fans of it.

.Mainly he goes into, OK so we have identified a method to use, but why cant or why dont we follow through etc. worth a read maybe.
 
hmm yes, I can see how we go through this stage, I mean do we trust our plan? is that why we hop about etc. If we trust our plan, or have decided to trade it. Then the next task is to trust ourselves, to execute it. Old Mark Douglas had some ideas on that. Have you read it . The disciplined trader ? Might help, give some ideas to study.

He also wrote trading in the Zone , another book. I havent read that one, but some people are fans of it.

.Mainly he goes into, OK so we have identified a method to use, but why cant or why dont we follow through etc. worth a read maybe.

My entire reason for taking the over-night trades, has been to counteract the problem that I have a tendancy to jump in and take small profits instead of letting them run. I sit glued to the computer screen waiting for the trade to come back into profit and then 'click', I take it. By trading the method I have, it's enabled me to go to sleep and (most days) wake up to a nice profit, that has completed most of it's move before the open of London.

Even when it's not been in profit and I've reset the target to 20 pips at 8.00am, it's not been a problem. Beacuse I've been doing contract work and I've been away from my trading programme and therefore (although I can sneek a look at the current prices on various websites) I've been unable to do anything about the trade.

The other style of trading that suits me is news trading as it's short and sharp - but I'm selective in those that I trade. US - ISM Manufacturing, Trade Balance, CPI and PCE/Personal Spending. For the UK I only trade Retail Sales.

My partner on the other hand can place a trade, monitor it and take it off two (or so) days later when it's hit his target. That would drive me nuts! Hey ho, each to their own.
 
java Charts

Just a side note.
I have struggled to access forex charts from dailyfx chartstation this morning, front-end seems to have been upgraded. Unfortunately I am sitting behind a firewall and my pc is locked down. I suspect its a java issue and maybe a setting requires tweaking somewhere, can anyone assist? It will be truly appreciated.
Thanks.
 
Just a side note.
I have struggled to access forex charts from dailyfx chartstation this morning, front-end seems to have been upgraded. Unfortunately I am sitting behind a firewall and my pc is locked down. I suspect its a java issue and maybe a setting requires tweaking somewhere, can anyone assist? It will be truly appreciated.
Thanks.

It could be an issue of a conflict between Microsoft virtual machine (java), and java sun. I had one many moons ago, but can't remember the exact details :confused: .

Why don't you download a demo account with Metatrader4 via an fx broker like alpari. Decent platform, etc.:idea: The demo never expires, if you access it every 90 days or so.
I have 2 MT4 demo accounts with 2 brokers, so i can cross reference prices etc.
 
It could be an issue of a conflict between Microsoft virtual machine (java), and java sun. I had one many moons ago, but can't remember the exact details :confused: .

Why don't you download a demo account with Metatrader4 via an fx broker like alpari. Decent platform, etc.:idea: The demo never expires, if you access it every 90 days or so.
I have 2 MT4 demo accounts with 2 brokers, so i can cross reference prices etc.

Would love to, but unfortunately no can do from work pc. No exe downloads persmissioned.
 
My entire reason for taking the over-night trades, has been to counteract the problem that I have a tendancy to jump in and take small profits instead of letting them run. I sit glued to the computer screen waiting for the trade to come back into profit and then 'click', I take it. By trading the method I have, it's enabled me to go to sleep and (most days) wake up to a nice profit, that has completed most of it's move before the open of London.

Even when it's not been in profit and I've reset the target to 20 pips at 8.00am, it's not been a problem. Beacuse I've been doing contract work and I've been away from my trading programme and therefore (although I can sneek a look at the current prices on various websites) I've been unable to do anything about the trade.

The other style of trading that suits me is news trading as it's short and sharp - but I'm selective in those that I trade. US - ISM Manufacturing, Trade Balance, CPI and PCE/Personal Spending. For the UK I only trade Retail Sales.

My partner on the other hand can place a trade, monitor it and take it off two (or so) days later when it's hit his target. That would drive me nuts! Hey ho, each to their own.

yeah, I think its double hard to trade and hold another job. No easy solution to that apart from, life changing ones, downsizing work, if trading ambitions are greater than other work interests. Solution might be to trade longer timeframes, but if as you say you dont like that, or you want to be more hands on, agressive. Then I can see how it may naturally conflict.

Not easy.. :)
 
Guys are very helpful, thanks.
I feel its a java compatability issue, unfortunately I will not be able to load their version due to restrictions at work. Once one is used looking at the same charts for 3 years its very difficult to adapt to the look and feel of new chart sw.
 
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