ES tonight

[rathcoole_exile]

HKZ .................... Cam......... DeM ......... FTP
Breakout Long ........ 969.23 ..... 968.88....... 954.42
Reversal Short ........ 947.36 ..... 939.97 ...... 929.13

PP ...................... 903.83...... 911.06...... 903.83

LKZ .................... Cam ......... DeM ......... FTP
Reversal Long ........ 903.64...... 900.22 ...... 889.38
Breakdown Short ..... 881.78 ..... 889.38 ...... 874.92

nice move just completed on the weekly DeMark -
Reversal Short from 939.75 down to weekly Pivot at 911

 

[rathcoole_exile]

Dem weekly Short update

actually the short only stalled at the PP, by which time I was out, but it did continue down to the opposite Kill Zone at 900, almost to the penny !!

 

[rathcoole_exile]

ESH9 Daily Thurs 8 Jan09

HKZ .................... Cam......... DeM ......... FTP
Breakout Long ........ 923.40...... 918.50....... 925.08
Reversal Short ........ 914.33 ..... 913.57 ...... 918.52

PP ...................... 911.92...... 908.63 ...... 911.92

LKZ .................... Cam ......... DeM ......... FTP
Reversal Long ........ 896.18...... 897.07 ...... 902.01
Breakdown Short ..... 887.10 ..... 885.50 ...... 892.06

so if price rises somewhat, I'll be looking for a reversal short at around 913.5/914

if price drops, I'll take a very cautious long at 897

and if price plummets I'll load my shorts from 887/885.5

or price could surprise us and burst out above 919/924 for a long recovery day

who knows ? whatever, I have planned my trades ....

 

[rathcoole_exile]

experiment - 8 Jan09

I won't go into detail yet about the new approach I'm investigating, but I've recently started experimenting with a new set-up, still using the various Cam/DeM/FTP formulae, but with slightly amended INPUT data

here are the FTP kill zone figures for today using the new inputs

(nb: at this stage I am only playing around with a theory that came to me in bed late one night. This is not a recommendation by any means; I'm quite prepared for the experiment to flop)

HKZ ....................
Breakout Long ........ 914.41
Reversal Short ........ 912.50

PP ...................... 910.58

LKZ ....................
Reversal Long ........ 906.00
Breakdown Short ..... 901.41

as you can see, these experimental figures can put me in almost direct contradiction with the traditional FTP kill zone figures especially Reversal Long at 902.01 versus Breakdown Short at 901.41 ...........

 

[rathcoole_exile]

experiment

these are the pivot lines for the Experiment i mentioned earlier....

 

[rathcoole_exile]

ESH9 Daily Friday 9 Jan09

HKZ .................... Cam......... DeM ......... FTP............ (Experiment)
Breakout Long ........ 915.69...... 915.38...... 912.50 ......... (907.16)
Reversal Short ........ 911.22 ..... 909.41 ......907.25 ......... (904.77)

PP ...................... 902.00...... 903.44 ...... 902.00 ......... (901.58)

LKZ .................... Cam ......... DeM ......... FTP
Reversal Long ........ 902.88...... 901.29 ...... 899.11 ......... (901.12)
Breakdown Short ..... 897.81 ..... 899.13 ...... 896.25 ......... (900.66)

 

[rathcoole_exile]

Camarilla Kill Zone, the perfect short

I'd gone to bed by the time the second opportunity came round, but look how a second short was triggered at the Camarilla Breakdown Short marker, almost to the penny

 

[rathcoole_exile]

and same for

traditional FTPs:

 

[rathcoole_exile]

ESH9 Weekly w/c 19 Jan09

just back from 10 days down in Phuket. Here are the figures for this week's Kill Zones.
HKZ .................... Cam......... DeM ......... FTP
Breakout Long ........ 888.51...... 867.00....... 885.08
Reversal Short ........ 868.51 ..... 853.44 ...... 867.00

PP ...................... 848.92...... 839.88 ...... 848.92

LKZ .................... Cam ......... DeM ......... FTP
Reversal Long ........ 828.49...... 817.06 ...... 830.63
Breakdown Short ..... 808.46 ..... 794.25 ...... 812.33

 

[rathcoole_exile]

ESH9 Daily Mon 19 Jan09

HKZ .................... Cam......... DeM ......... FTP
Breakout Long ........ 865.83...... 868.88....... 862.08
Reversal Short ........ 857.16 ..... 858.22 ...... 853.13

PP ...................... 844.17...... 847.56 ...... 844.17

LKZ .................... Cam ......... DeM ......... FTP
Reversal Long ........ 839.84...... 842.42 ...... 837.38
Breakdown Short ..... 831.18 ..... 837.38 ...... 830.58

didn't look at the markets at all last week, so I'll probably take it easy tonight and just observe, just get myself back into the swing of things

..and only later realised of course that it's MLK Day - slowly getting back into the swing of things, Doh !

 

[rathcoole_exile]

set up zones for 19 jan

pre-market opening set-ups

 

[rathcoole_exile]

Oscar for President !!

YouTube - 01/20/09 S&P Emini & Futures Recommendations

 

[rathcoole_exile]

ESH9 Daily Wednesday 21 Jan09

HKZ .................... Cam......... DeM ......... FTP
Breakout Long ........ 843.54...... 835.88....... 848.67
Reversal Short ........ 824.77 ..... 826.29 ...... 835.88

PP ...................... 823.08...... 816.69 ...... 823.08

LKZ .................... Cam ......... DeM ......... FTP
Reversal Long ........ 787.23...... 792.16 ...... 801.75
Breakdown Short ..... 768.46 ..... 767.63 ...... 780.42


bit of a clash at 835.88 - DeMark says go Long the breakout, FTP says Reversal Short.

I keep trying to narrow the 3 sets of figures down to just 1, but each time I convince myself to go with say, Camarillas, then FTPs outperform the others and so on.
Is this an indication of a fundamental flaw with this approach, ie that it's crap ? Or do I just continue to treat each set of numbers independently and take each trade as and when it comes ? Dunno :?:

 

[rathcoole_exile]

ESH9 Daily Thurs 22 Jan

HKZ .................... Cam......... DeM ......... FTP
Breakout Long ........ 857.65...... 856.63....... 850.00
Reversal Short ........ 847.20 ..... 842.60 ...... 837.63

PP ...................... 825.25...... 828.56 ...... 825.25

LKZ .................... Cam ......... DeM ......... FTP
Reversal Long ........ 826.30...... 823.60 ...... 818.63
Breakdown Short ..... 815.85 ..... 818.63 ...... 812.00

another direct contradiction between DeM & FTP @ 818.63

 

[rathcoole_exile]

ESH9 Daily Friday 23 Jan

okay, for the sake of clarity, brevity and my sanity, the 3 sets of figures are amalgamated into the following trade triggers for tonight:

HKZ .................... Main Trades, multiple cars
Breakout Long ........ 844.50
Reversal Short ........ 835.00
LKZ
Reversal Long ........ 816.50
Breakdown Short ..... 807.25


having said that, I'm still also experimenting with a different set of Input values. These are the experimental trade triggers for tonight for single lot trades with tighter SLs:

HKZ .................... Experiment Trades, single cars
Breakout Long ........ 832.00
Reversal Short ........ 828.50
LKZ
Reversal Long ........ 821.00
Breakdown Short ..... 817.25

I have found that these experimental input figures work well in the couple of hours immediately preceding the cash market Open, then the Main trades seem to take over.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

ESH9 Daily Tues 3 Feb

HKZ ....................
Breakout Long ........ 830.00
Reversal Short ........ 824.25
LKZ
Reversal Long ........ 813.50
Breakdown Short ..... 808.00

 

[rathcoole_exile]

ES 3 Feb review

caught a couple of 3 pointers early on (Reversal Shorts)
took a loss just after 11

then got chopped around with the odd +1 and scratch trades during the lunchtime doldrums,

before finally catching a nice Breakout Long after lunch
Had tried to go for 10 points, but got stopped out on a pull back at +6

 

[rathcoole_exile]

ESH9 Daily Weds 4 Feb09

HKZ ....................
Breakout Long ........ 844.00
Reversal Short ........ 837.00
LKZ
Reversal Long ........ 825.00
Breakdown Short ..... 819.50

 

[rathcoole_exile]

update on Weekly chart

Caught a nice Reversal Long from 811.

I should have closed out at 836 at the weekly PP but didn't set up right and forgot about it too.
So now I'll sell to close if it drops to 828

so instead of a 25 pointer, it may end up being only 17 points, but c'est la vie

(and according to one of my other "systems" [a reversal of direction after a close outside Keltner channel], price might actually bounce back up before hitting my Stop...here's hoping....)

 

[rathcoole_exile]

update to weekly

well, luckily price didn't drop to my Stop, and reversed back towards the Weekly PP.

So now I'll tighten my Stop to get closer to the 836 or hopefully pick up a continuation.

worth noting since I rarely mention it on these pages - note the price reversal following a bar closing outside of the Keltner (red colour) channel, highlighted in the circle