What you have stated in you findings, is similar to my thinking.…if the markets goes against me I scale out as there is a good chance I am wrong. Also on my first 5 points I sell half of my position and move stop to even my success rate is high. you done these test on random movements. On testing better result may be, buying if a 5 min bar closes up for longs and down for shorts.on testing put in, if the entry bar was lower then the last 3 bars but high than the last 10 bars,for longs, just reverse it for shorts I am not sure if you testing could do this let me know.BullMarket said:It’s results were identical to test 4 actually but, I need to retest the profit taking section of my research. I haven’t reached a firm conclusion on profit taking yet.
-Frank
BullMarket said:
Hi Frank,
Well, let's see if I understood what you're doing, because I got confused by that part of your answer...You are taking the entries randomly, right? I thought you were taking just random entries as you assume the market is random. As is random it doesn't matter if you go long or short, so you're always going long. You fix a profit target, stop loss and a bet size and then you run your tests. Am I correct? (I didn't get 'it's entirely dependent on the probability of a move of x ...etc').
In the last table what I don't understand what 'percentage won to be' is, and how you calculate it. I thought initially that it was the return, but this is not consistent with the results of the different tests. That's the part I don't get
Thanks, have a good day,
Silvia.
BullMarket
Newbie
- Messages
- 5
- Likes
- 0
silviaic said:Hi Frank,
Well, let's see if I understood what you're doing, because I got confused by that part of your answer...You are taking the entries randomly, right? I thought you were taking just random entries as you assume the market is random. As is random it doesn't matter if you go long or short, so you're always going long. You fix a profit target, stop loss and a bet size and then you run your tests. Am I correct? (I didn't get 'it's entirely dependent on the probability of a move of x ...etc').
In the last table what I don't understand what 'percentage won to be' is, and how you calculate it. I thought initially that it was the return, but this is not consistent with the results of the different tests. That's the part I don't get
Thanks, have a good day,
Silvia.
“The number of trades taken per time frames fluctuates. The day time frame has about two thousands trades and the 15 minutes charts have only about 60 trades. These are only rough approximations it’s entirely dependent on the probability of a move of x amount of pips in x amount of time.”
What I was pointing out is that the number of trades will vary over a given time frame. The longer the time frame the more trades that could be entered given the probability of a move occurring. For example, a 35 pip move is more far more likely to happen in 4 hours than in 5 minutes.
It’s the percentage of trades that you would have to win to break even on your account.
3:1 risk reward. Would give you an ideal return of 75% wins and 25% losses.
for example on test 3
I have a RR of 2:1
2/1 = 2.0 W/L
15 Min 1.39 -0.41%
1.39 < 2.0 so I failed to break even.
errrr ummm, Hope this make since! I wrote this when I was pretty sleepy.
If you'r still confused drop me a line at [email protected]
Night!
