edge init

[VielGeld]

when you say market's are not mechanical what do you mean exactly?

Well, reiterating my idea that trading is a competition, it means that players keep learning. So the market is never static as it tries to extract money from other players, so anyone who runs a purely mechanical system will likely fail since he's being predictable. Nothing easier to beat than someone who's being predictable, after all.

So I don't mean mechanical in the sense of HFT or program trading, but rather non-discretionary systems. I suspect any sort of success derived from trading requires some level of discretion.

(I'm excluding stuff like arbitrage here since that's a bit of a tech war to get an edge. The best/fastest computer wins, etc.)

I may be wrong, of course. Not like I know all there is to know out there, lol.

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

I found my edge by accident. It was akin to an act of 'Run Forrest, Run' as a result of rejecting retail trading dogma. A bit like the way Catholics go mad when they decide that religion isn't for them. Doing the opposite.

When I did eventually stop and looked back I thought it might have been an edge so I validated it using sums. I then thought more about why this was working and convinced myself that it was an edge. I am currently uncertain whether it will last any longer than a couple of years. However I do know what to look for to suggest the beginning of long term failure.

interesting, what makes you think it may not last any longer than a couple of years?

 

[counter_violent]

Do you have a link to the thread ? I will be happy to have a look at the cats and the bags and see where you are coming come and what your edge is. I will know an edge when I see one. The law of win is as omnipotent as the law of gravity. No edge can escape its grasp.

I somehow doubt that...considering you don't post gems of your own. Just saying...

 

[BeginnerJoe]

this brings me back to the 'anyone post 10 winner trades in a row' thread. If any noobie is in doubt about this they should load their demo account with 1000 demo dollars then proceed to place random trades with 1 point targets and 1000 point stop loss. They should hit 21 consecutive winners in no time at all.

But can they hit 80 ? Perhaps you and the hare combine your edges and demonstrate.

 

[robster970]

interesting, what makes you think it may not last any longer than a couple of years?

As it relies upon mean reversion, there is no real reason it shouldn't but I don't want to discount the fact that participation/exploitation may degrade it.

I can see how size is an issue but I am some way off that problem.

 

[R.Charnock]

Any edge based on fixed ideas can cease being an edge at any time (My theory is, DYOR, IKBA)

 

[Jack o'Clubs]

21 winners is not exactly hard no matter how close to zero it is. I had 80 winners in a row in the forum contest once. What's the odds for that then, Mr math genius ? To achieve something, you have to give yourself the opportunity rather than counting yourself out - in other words to be in the game. The magical truth is that it ain't under your control no matter how long you practice your edge. Realising the essence of that will change your life.

80 in a row is infinitesimally small* at 50/50 so my guess is that your probability was significantly greater than chance (in other words an edge) or you wasted an opportunity that could be measured in numbers usually used in quantum physics on something as banal as a forum competition.

I'm not a maths genius but I do know enough to make sure I'm aware of the odds in a probability based business. Not sure about 'changing my life' but as I do this professionally and do reasonably well I reckon I've figured some of this out so thanks for your condescension.

* 0.0000000000000000000000827181% since you ask.

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

on my travels I happened upon an oil trader who works for an investment bank. to open up trading conversation I asked him if he traded front month WTI or Brent. He looked a little surprised and said they rarely take a punt (his words) on contracts of oil, they would only consider this if it was really quiet. He then added 'I prefer to trade where I have an edge'. I naturally asked him where this was and he explained they had access to order flow information, which oil was coming in from where, who had bought what and how much. With this info they could trade spread contracts with an edge.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

I somehow doubt that...considering you don't post gems of your own. Just saying...

He was volunteering, I wasn't. In any case why would you need my edge when you have your own that is capable of making 500% in 1 week ? Even the hare's favourite trainer baghdaddy is no match for that.

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

But can they hit 80 ? Perhaps you and the hare combine your edges and demonstrate.

troll denied lol. no upside BJ.

 

[counter_violent]

He was volunteering, I wasn't. In any case why would you need my edge when you have your own that is capable of making 500% in 1 week ? Even the hare's favourite trainer baghdaddy is no match for that.

Joe, All i'm saying is, you don't have an edge ! So how could I need something you don't have ! I'm not having a go btw....just telling it like it is.

Your also right, I don't need others edges...i've got a cupboard full of them
What I need is organisation.

And i'll also tell you this...if you think 500% in a week is good going.....just wait until I do get organised.

I'm quite confident that when the day comes...i'll blow everyone out the water.

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

Any edge based on fixed ideas can cease being an edge at any time (My theory is, DYOR, IKBA)

well I agree an edge can break down. I don't think you will find many people argue against you on that one.

 

[the hare]

But can they hit 80 ? Perhaps you and the hare combine your edges and demonstrate.

I couldn't hit 80 consecutive wins for all the tea in China (well I could but I wouldn't actually make any money doing that so I'll give it a miss)

I used to trade a really great method that has a fantastic win rate, but I had to stop trading it for psychological reasons. I had problems dealing with the infrequent losers. These days I have slightly more losers than winners, and I cope with that a great deal better.

Getting an edge, optimizing the MM and being psychologically comfortable is a bit of a balancing act and one size certainly does not fit all.

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

I'm quite confident that when the day comes...i'll blow everyone out the water.

steady on old chap, I can feel a bucket shop spanking in the pipeline.

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

so anyone who runs a purely mechanical system will likely fail since he's being predictable.

I don't trade purely mechanical systems, some day I might though if I can find a good edge and I learn how to code. I don't want to learn how to code as its a kin huge can of worms and time is limited. Sometimes being predictable is good though especially when you are good at predicting, if you get me.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Joe, All i'm saying is, you don't have an edge !

You are right there. Given my belief about the market, I don't need an edge. See, it's all about being in the game to win it.

I'm quite confident that when the day comes...i'll blow everyone out the water.

I look forward to that day. I just hope the resulting explosion doesn't cause your own boat to sink.

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

See, it's all about being in the game to win it.
.

I am curious how you came to this conclusion. Trust me you could be in this game for 10+ years and not earn a cent. Do you honestly believe that all you need to do is stay in the game to 'win'. It sounds like some vendor has given you that line just so you continue paying the sub.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

I am curious how you came to this conclusion. Trust me you could be in this game for 10+ years and not earn a cent. Do you honestly believe that all you need to do is stay in the game to 'win'. It sounds like some vendor has given you that line just so you continue paying the sub.

Well I am my own vendor. So I get free lifetime subscription. I don't know why people keep thinking I am buying ideas. Is it because I include trainer videos in my youtube thread ?

It's only logical to believe you have to be in the game to win it. For people winning without being in the game, that would be a one off luck and not very interesting.

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

Well I am my own vendor. So I get free lifetime subscription. I don't know why people keep thinking I am buying ideas. Is it because I include trainer videos in my youtube thread ?

It's only logical to believe you have to be in the game to win it. For people winning without being in the game, that would be a one off luck and not very interesting.

of course you have to be in the game to 'win' it. this doesn't mean that if you are in the game that you are going to win it does it. i think you logic is mixed up BJ.

Dont you get that? If someone says you must do A to get B that is not the same as saying if you do A you will get B. Do you get me BJ? unless you are on the wind up in which case, you got me.

 

[VielGeld]

on my travels I happened upon an oil trader who works for an investment bank. to open up trading conversation I asked him if he traded front month WTI or Brent. He looked a little surprised and said they rarely take a punt (his words) on contracts of oil, they would only consider this if it was really quiet. He then added 'I prefer to trade where I have an edge'. I naturally asked him where this was and he explained they had access to order flow information, which oil was coming in from where, who had bought what and how much. With this info they could trade spread contracts with an edge.

Good stuff, CD.

I wonder where and how you'd get your hands on such info... :smart:

I'm quite confident that when the day comes...i'll blow everyone out the water.

Yo!

Hit me up when you're down for it. I want front seat on that geyser!