Don't worry about missing out on moves

[Vaco]

i found him to be very supple and extremely loose.

I wont even ask what you two were doing

 

[arabianights]

pix pls

 

[thierry911]

I am sorry but.. if you are a trend follower you can not miss any potential move... which can bring you the "big move" of the year. It s a easier to trade that way. rather than trying to pick up few pips here and there. With the spread and the slippage... scalping is only profitable to the interbank dealer.

 

[Vaco]

I am sorry but.. if you are a trend follower you can not miss any potential move... which can bring you the "big move" of the year. It s a easier to trade that way. rather than trying to pick up few pips here and there. With the spread and the slippage... scalping is only profitable to the interbank dealer.

if your looking for the big move of the year that you cant afford to miss you sound like a turtle looking at the daily time frame. Most people here are looking at 4h or below and at these time frames there's always another move and spread slippage are still not an issue.

If you get a piece of any move it don't matter how small it is, there's no point in someone pointing out to you how much of the move you have missed.

Stick to your plan and take the pips on offer.

 

[Dinos]

Hmmmm, they way I look at this is, in the morning the market will open and at the end of the day will close, in between it will offer trading opportunity after trading opportunity, so if you miss a trade, dont chase it, get a cuppa and wait patiently for the next set up, because it will and does happen , day after day after day etc, be patience, wait, stalk, trade and profit, not rocket science, as sure as night becomes day and so on, a reversal of the trade you missed, will happen and when that that trend iis confirmed, jump on board, no point is trying to guess, let it happen, then get on board, certainly less stressfull inho

 

[foredog]

Hmmmm, they way I look at this is, in the morning the market will open and at the end of the day will close, in between it will offer trading opportunity after trading opportunity, so if you miss a trade, dont chase it, get a cuppa and wait patiently for the next set up, because it will and does happen

And don't beat yourself up over missing one.

Just looking at EURUSD thinking why didn't you enter there for that rally.

Then my logical part of my brain said "becasue at the time it looked like a crap entry at the time" it only looked good in hindsight.

 

[Dinos]

it only looked good in hindsight.

Hindsight is great, not to say "if only", but as a powerful aid in statistical analysis in monitoring the effeciency of you trading set up.

 

[disi]

if your looking for the big move of the year that you cant afford to miss you sound like a turtle looking at the daily time frame. Most people here are looking at 4h or below and at these time frames there's always another move and spread slippage are still not an issue.

If you get a piece of any move it don't matter how small it is, there's no point in someone pointing out to you how much of the move you have missed.

Stick to your plan and take the pips on offer.

I am sorry but.. if you are a trend follower you can not miss any potential move... which can bring you the "big move" of the year. It s a easier to trade that way. rather than trying to pick up few pips here and there. With the spread and the slippage... scalping is only profitable to the interbank dealer.

I am not sure if forex market is the best place for "trend followers". I have spent here 9 years now. FX market differ very much from stocks or regular futures(indices or others). Price can reverse here taking 60-70% of initial move and then get back to the move. We call it here "retracement" - non of regular "trend followers" could trade the trends like that here.

Nothing wrong with trend following. But what is the most important from this philosophy for FX markets is to have potential lose smaller than potential gain. If that ratio is OK then you are halve way through. What exactly kind of trading you chose is not that much relevant.

 

[foredog]

have potential lose smaller than potential gain. If that ratio is OK then you are halve way through. What exactly kind of trading you chose is not that much relevant.

good point

 

[montmorencyt2w]

And don't beat yourself up over missing one.

Just looking at EURUSD thinking why didn't you enter there for that rally.

Then my logical part of my brain said "becasue at the time it looked like a crap entry at the time" it only looked good in hindsight.

Or the current rally in EUR/GPB, which to me appeared to come out of nowhere (news?).
Currently banging its head against the lower of 2 resistances after previously testing higher one. (I did have both levels drawn in beforehand, I'm glad to say, but that's about the limit of my success so far today).

 

[cpngtw]

Capturing a move is irrelevant.

Well, with some important caveats anyway.

Firstly, let's accept that none of us are Nostradamus. So under most circumstances we cannot predict market moves accurately.

It follows from this that the further a move, the less likely we are to have predicted it (1).

It follows from this that we can predict a smaller move more easily (2)

It follows from this that we can put more size on in a smaller move. In fact, taken to its logical conclusion if we are 100% certain about a two tick move we can risk our entire account in one tick and treble it. (3)

Conclusion: Don't worry about losing the big moves. Assuming you read the caveats.

So next time Trader_Dante messages you moaning about some nob who took one tick who could have taken a thousand, point him to this thread

(1): Not always the case, unfortunately: for example I will often 'ignore' a price level when running a position, knowing that if said level is broken I can certainly get out past it.

(2): Almost always true, if only because price has a definite velocity and thus can reverse well before reaching ones chosen level. The exceptions are, as in caveat one, where a certain move practically necessarily is part of another move.

(3): This is the only serious caveat, as 1 & 2 are effectively artefacts of incompetence/less than perfectness. I will split into two parts

(3a): LIQUIDITY: The above assumes a perfectly liquid market. If you need to put ten thousand lots on then assuming it's not a red eurodollar spread or something you're going to have to faff around getting in and out and will have to make allowances for that
(3b): I forgot what I was going to put here

​

Bonus caveat (4): The above also assumes no transaction costs. If you're paying a spread or paying commission, then you are paying transaction costs, and you will have to adjust accordingly.

Comment on caveats: These are why the traditional maxim is to let your profits run and cut your losses. But if you can get around them, and a competent scalper can in my opinion, then you are perfectly at liberty to ignore said maxim

I just thought of a name for this kind of trades, "shotgun"! High power short distance high effects!

 

[thierry911]

I have seen alot of interbank fx dealer practicing scalping.. and the only ones who used to make money are the ones who could mixed it up with customer flows.. otherwise they kept loosing money..

making few pips here and there all day long until... a sharp move and everything was gone...

 

[disi]

I have seen alot of interbank fx dealer practicing scalping.. and the only ones who used to make money are the ones who could mixed it up with customer flows.. otherwise they kept loosing money..

making few pips here and there all day long until... a sharp move and everything was gone...

Yes - that is true. If you can 'stick' to your big client moves you can earn few pips. Apart from that not much of room for scalping.

 

[Black Swan]

I am not sure if forex market is the best place for "trend followers". I have spent here 9 years now. FX market differ very much from stocks or regular futures(indices or others). Price can reverse here taking 60-70% of initial move and then get back to the move. We call it here "retracement" - non of regular "trend followers" could trade the trends like that here.

Nothing wrong with trend following. But what is the most important from this philosophy for FX markets is to have potential lose smaller than potential gain. If that ratio is OK then you are halve way through. What exactly kind of trading you chose is not that much relevant.

sorry to say this, (actually just realised I'm not sorry at all) but your statement is total bo11ox .