DB an Geo's Smallcap Smorgasbord

[thehoops16]

Dr.Blix Thanks i'm in it for relatively long term so am hoping to see a steady increase over the coming year.

Also, Spreader_Legger here is a list of points i use from a book i often refer to when looking for share opportunities which may help:
1. still growth to come
2. has a full listing
3. divs / profits / turnovers are rising
4. Lots of positives with no question mark news
5. It's liquid
6. Good understanding of what the company does
7. It's under 15X profits to market cap
8. Good market sector?
9. Demans for company product likely to grow
10. Chart looks positive
11. Debt is under 3X full year profits

I have done quite well trading low value shares over long periods of time despite not always following these rules religiously. One of my recent shares which has performed well is Workspace Plc. I picked this mainly from an overview of what the company does, and the long term 5yr chart.
(It was almost a recovery pick with the SP at 12p and previously valued at 500p+) Also because of it's relation to the property market.

 

[dr.blix]

some good points there hoops.

in my opinion there are a couple of ways to treat smallcaps.

my initial method was rudimentary, but in good prevailing FTSE conditions, successful.

this method involved searching for recovery instruments that had just had large price increases (30% up over). i then simply bought the 50% retracements, or the inside of whatever pattens emerged.

the other method i've realised which is probably more sedate is simply ten bagging. opening a smaller position with recovery instruments on a very long TF (in an attempt to bag a ten fold increase).

 

[spreader_legger]

Thanks guys .... looks like I have some work cut out for me.

Do you look at any financial reports? Also what news services do you use?

 

[dr.blix]

be interesting to see if the FTSE can stay above 5500...i have just above 5400 as a trend support line, or 5630 as historical res if we can continue north.

 

[thehoops16]

Morning people!

DrB
Yes thats an interesting way of looking at them, I guess thats the great thing about smallcaps they are affordable / and you often say when buying between 0-30p have a good chance of doubling your stake at least.

On the news front there is loads you can use really advfn.com / lse.co.uk / sharecast.co.uk to mention a few.

Regarding smallcaps specifically you can use http://smallcapnews.co.uk/o/

hoops

 

[thehoops16]

DrB...

Do you trade the indices?

I place the occasional spread bet on them / the banks. Currently have a 6Month position open on LLOY which is seeing a bit of a retrace along with the other banks today.

ACU 6.92-7.25 today opening slighty higher and now flat

 

[Ciao]

good morning

as I was passing by I thought to come in and say "hello"
lately I haven't been around because I didn't do any UK trading still holding the same one (waiting for a bagger lol)
at the same time I didn't like to "mumble" (o/t) about olives etc....
btw C-love you are right about olive trees are not good there... the actual olives frozen (50%) on the trees

hope you all make plenty ... see you and take care

 

[dr.blix]

sold TMP at + 37%. i'll be a buyer of pullbacks.

bought PDF @ 1.3p

 

[anil12345]

dr.blix, hi mate, thanks for your response to my question regarding yell group.
just like you i hadn't traded it for a while thats why i was wanting your opinion whether it might be good to go long on it now, i used to trade it a lot about 6-12 months ago but then it flew up to 80 odd pence and i didnt bother with it as that was too high for me, now it is back below 40p it is a good price for me to buy and after doing some TA and also with WS' help i have come to the conclusion that the 36p area is a good place to long and major support area, i have already opened some long positions, i have more to open though if i see the trend turning up. yell usually stabalises for a couple of weeks, and then has a 40-50% spike in sp within a couple of days and that could happen soon with the results out early next month so i am looking for a 46-48p target to sell.

what are your views? it has been falling for over 4 months and has fallen over 50% and seems to be stabalising now, it is in a descending wedge formation i think? it has also recently been upgraded by UBS and morgan stanley recently said it could be the trinity mirror of 2010, not that i base my buys on broker upgrades, just want to keep you up to date with what has been going on, and maybe you also might be interested in opening some positions with yell?

thanks
anil.

 

[dr.blix]

good to hear from you anil.

sorry i couldn't be of more help to you re YELL, but i really am out of the loop with it.

just having a quick look at the chart, some nice bullish osc div on the YELL daily. one thing that bothers me though is being in negative short term MA territory.

take a simple 20 MA and look through the daily chart for last year. i realise this is a simplistic look at things, but its also clear that negative territory MA action has needed clear breaches before positive price movements. right now YELL is still contained by the MA.

the bullish osc div is a nice sign, as is the respecting of an up trend line created by the march 31, july 13 and july 21 lows.

a clear breach of the 20 MA with continued bullish osc div and good volume (paired with a FTSE rally) and it could look good for 43-46p with 56p as a secondary target.

i think a FTSE cave-in would push YELL back down to its 30-33p level.

 

[anil12345]

dr.blix, thank you my friend for that analysis. i will save that.
many thanks
anil.

 

[dr.blix]

i've been using these channel lines on the FTSE for a long time, they're derived from the march '09 low.

still no correction after 10 months of up trend? hmmm... maybe its due now, or maybe the US will turn it around for us...again.

if this channel floor is breached i'd expect to see 5380 first. if we turn it around then 5700 looks possible.

 

[dr.blix]

i have a small long SB position on YELL. bullish osc div on these last 2 little bumps. price action does look very similar to time before its previous rises, but that could, of course, mean nothing.

something i've noted recently is YELL's sensitivity to FTSE fluctuations, it does seem very 'locked in'. although i haven't overlaid the charts yet.

not good news if the FTSE drops off my current channel support.

 

[dr.blix]

ok, so we finally crashed the channel line, the US only managed to drag us upside of the channel on the first day, but not the second.

channel has now had 1 res hit.

5400 acted as support and not 5380 as i'd said. 5380 should give decent support though i'd have thought, considering the price action all through Nov and start of Dec. looks like 5333 as the next decent support from mid december, then 5298 from october 09 and 5200 from sep 09.

 

[dr.blix]

something i've noted recently is YELL's sensitivity to FTSE fluctuations, it does seem very 'locked in'. although i haven't overlaid the charts yet.

not good news if the FTSE drops off my current channel support.

YELL dropped with the FTSE, so not a good start to my small SB position.

 

[crude_lover]

took some nice profit off my miners in the end, sadly not as much as i should of but a profit is a profit.

Starting to keep an eye on the pharmaceuticals paticularly astra zeneca.

 

[dr.blix]

interesting, you think the mining sector has ran through its cycle CL?

i ditched my small SB position on YELL yesterday, i may pick it back up with the FTSE's next rally.

 

[crude_lover]

interesting, you think the mining sector has ran through its cycle CL?

i ditched my small SB position on YELL yesterday, i may pick it back up with the FTSE's next rally.

I think the miners are still in a big bull market and have plenty more room to the upside. The problem is With the huge movements in the commodities its only taking one bad day in something like copper to cause Rio to sink £1 lower which destroyed a reasonable amount of my profit, not to mention the overall current performance of the ftse index bringing them down.
Another problem is you have to be prepared to lots of price fluctuations and relatively wide and sensible stops with stuff like rio or xstrata who easily do over a pound movement in a day.

Pretty much looking to catch the eventual rallies in this, Barclays is looking good and looking to eventually grab some longs in it and catch it on the upside.

 

[dr.blix]

5123?

 

[masnachu]

Doesn't seem unreasonable , bottom of your channel by any chance ?

Will have work through 5180-90 area first though.