Anyone heard of Day Trade to Win

[nickohorny]

Thur. Oct 8th. A very bad day. A double stop out.
Short 1058.50 I did not recognize the entry candle as an exhaustion wick. Market reversed, went up & stopped me at 1063.50.

Re-entered long at 1066.50 using DTTW “chase the trade” rules. Did not act on price resistance pattern. Should have exited b/e. Only had 3 tics in at one time. Market went down & stopped me at -5 pts at 1061.75.

It will take 4 full +2 +4 point winners to make up for today.

This is my point, if sticking to just going for 2pts, you would be down $500 and need 5 days to recover... HOWEVER is it not easier to go try hit the 2pts on these 5 days than have to go 4 days trying for the 2 and 4pts? With the breakevens and such.. it could take longer than 4 days to recover trying for both 2 and 4pts.

 

[nickohorny]

It seems the strategy had a good month as measured from 9/9 thru 10/8 today.

The results include live trading from 9/29

Total trades 25 - 2 contracts traded each trade
6 point winners (2 and 4 point target hit) 16 (sixteen)
Break Even Trades (2 points hit and then stopped at -2 on 2nd contract) - 2
(two)
-10 point trades - 5 (five) (one of these would have been a break even if I hadn't have made a mistake)
-2 point trades - 2 (two) (I look to close if target or stop is not hit by 11:30 -12:00 EST. Both of these were re-entry trades after a 10 point loser.

Today was the only no trade - no trigger by noon, I went and played golf.

Hit rate (includes break evens) 18/25 = 72%

Total points gained on 2 contracts = 42

42 X $50 - $100 commission = $1800

miscellaneous - most 6 points winners in a row 6. Most 10 point losers in a row 1.

Probably an exceptional month but .....

Hi

Wow yes great results.

You had 5 losers in total of 10pts - and recovered on 2 of them for 2pts.. what about the other 3? was they just a loss of $500 on the day? was there not a re-entry for them trades?

Cheers

 

[razor99]

Hi

Wow yes great results.

You had 5 losers in total of 10pts - and recovered on 2 of them for 2pts.. what about the other 3? was they just a loss of $500 on the day? was there not a re-entry for them trades?

Cheers

No there were 5 ten point losers (-50 Points) PLUS 2 two point losers (-4 points) offset by 16 six point winners (+96)

By the way, yestreday I was probably saved by a bad data stream, I did not take the short at 1058.5 as this was my lowest close (did not break out). Some are tellling me that they had a close at 1058.25, took the short and were stopped for -5 points. Maybe this makes up for one earlier in the month I made a mistake on and cost me 5 points. In any event, I am going to log it as a "paper trade" loss as far as statistics go. I did not take the chase the trade later in the day as it was past my entry time limit. That apparently stopped out as well giving some guys a double loser.

 

[ericthewellread]

Watching the website videos, John Paul moves the runner stop to -2, when the 1st +2 Pt target hits. This would give a scratch trade if the runner is stopped.
Yet, I can see on his performance reports. that on some days that he shows a +2 +4 profit, price came back & would have stopped out the runner at -2 before it went +4.

I have tried moving the runner stop to entry & I get stopped on the runner a lot.
I have tried leaving the runner stop at -2 & get stopped out less often, but it does happen.

If the market won’t move strongly in my direction, I have tried exiting the 1st half at whatever I can get & that may be only 3 to 5 ticks. I then move the runner stop to equal the gain & I get stopped out more often.

I can see that leaving the stop at -5 would work some days, because price does often move in my favor later in the day. It is just hard to watch the trade go red, hoping for it to turn around. Sometime it does & sometimes it would stop out at -5.

Today Oct 9. Very choppy market with no direction.
Entered long at 1064.25. I sometimes front run entry by 1 tick. Only got 2 ticks out of it on the 1st pop higher. Set runner stop at -2 ticks & I was out for a scratch trade.

Reentered long at 1064.00 on a big push thru. I saw resistance at 1065.75 & got out at 1065.25 for +1.25 pts. It looked like it was coming down, so I set runner stop at entry & I was out b/e on runner. Price went as low as to 1061.75 (-2.25 pts) & came back. If I had held on, I could have got the full +2 +4 right at the close. You never know what is going to happen. It seems that whatever I do, it is the wrong thing. I guess I should be happy to get some money out of the market today.

 

[ericthewellread]

I guess one main point is that JP does not adjust his web results for moving the runner stop after 1st target hits. Results apparently are estimated as if stop is left at -5 for entire trade, which is not what his course teaches to do & not what I see him do on his videos.

To duplicate the web results, I think one would have to leave the stop at -5, but I do not recall reading any daily recap where profit was taken on the 1st half & the runner stopped out at -5. If the 1st target hits, & the trade goes against you, it is assumed that the entire position was exited at +2 or whatever. It would not be possible to know to do that. The daily performance reports are done with the benefit of hindsight.

After pointing this out, it is a good system & it should be profitable long term, but I can't see how anyone can get close to his web results, because of the variable of +2 & +4 Pt targets & stops.

 

[razor99]

Watching the website videos, John Paul moves the runner stop to -2, when the 1st +2 Pt target hits. This would give a scratch trade if the runner is stopped.
Yet, I can see on his performance reports. that on some days that he shows a +2 +4 profit, price came back & would have stopped out the runner at -2 before it went +4.

I have tried moving the runner stop to entry & I get stopped on the runner a lot.
I have tried leaving the runner stop at -2 & get stopped out less often, but it does happen.

If the market won’t move strongly in my direction, I have tried exiting the 1st half at whatever I can get & that may be only 3 to 5 ticks. I then move the runner stop to equal the gain & I get stopped out more often.

I can see that leaving the stop at -5 would work some days, because price does often move in my favor later in the day. It is just hard to watch the trade go red, hoping for it to turn around. Sometime it does & sometimes it would stop out at -5.

Today Oct 9. Very choppy market with no direction.
Entered long at 1064.25. I sometimes front run entry by 1 tick. Only got 2 ticks out of it on the 1st pop higher. Set runner stop at -2 ticks & I was out for a scratch trade.

Reentered long at 1064.00 on a big push thru. I saw resistance at 1065.75 & got out at 1065.25 for +1.25 pts. It looked like it was coming down, so I set runner stop at entry & I was out b/e on runner. Price went as low as to 1061.75 (-2.25 pts) & came back. If I had held on, I could have got the full +2 +4 right at the close. You never know what is going to happen. It seems that whatever I do, it is the wrong thing. I guess I should be happy to get some money out of the market today.

I have been placing second stop at entry -2 for a breakeven if first target is hit and second trade is stopped out. This worked out very well for me last month, just trying to be consistent. I also start looking for an exit at 11:30 regardless. Yesterday closed for a small loss but would have been a winner later in the day.

 

[ericthewellread]

There must be a good reason JP moves his runner stop to -2 instead of at entry. Overall, it must produce a better result.

What his ATO strategy is trying to do is jump on the first big trend after the pullback. Waiting later to enter is less likely to work, but getting out at a loss, just because it is taking too long, I don’t know... Shorter time trades do have a time decay to consider, but his can be a longer time trade, hoping to profit off a bigger move, hence the large stop & largish targets. It is great to have the targets hit on the next candle, but it usually does not happen right away.

 

[razor99]

The vendor has posted his last few days results and refers to "filtering out" some trades. Does anyone know what he is refering to?

 

[cbrodes]

The vendor has posted his last few days results and refers to "filtering out" some trades. Does anyone know what he is refering to?

I emailed that very same question today and was told that the 'filters' subject was discussed in the last webinar - which I missed due to other business obligations- at a cost of $197. There is however another 'Free' webinar for Thursday 10/22. Subject to cover Scalping and JP's Atlas Line indicator (reverse trend indicator I believe).

I will ask the question on the Filtering of ATO trade setups.

 

[cbrodes]

Go to the DT2W website to register for free webinar.

 

[John Paul]

Filtering a trade is basically waiting for the bar to close instead of jumping into the trade. If the bar closes above or below our entry signal it filters the trade, and confirms price wants to continue in our favor or not. The 3 hour webinars went into great detail, lots of charts and included 1 month of the signals. We have them once a month and if you go to Day Trade to Win Official Site, E mini S&P Futures Day Trading System, Strategy and Automation the next webinar dates will be posted.

 

[razor99]

I must be missing something. On the days where"filtering" is referenced, the bar closed outside of the breakout window. I then put in limit orderes and was filled on the retrace. This is exactly how the course directs. Is there an update to the course???

 

[John Paul]

no razor, best bet is to email me and i will explain further. [email protected]

 

[fayalac]

"I preffer the sweet bitterness of the truth instead the bitter sweetness of a lie", there is no way you can just sit and profit doing nothing, a friend of mine was doing great i mean he is in the major leagues, for some reason he bougth some information service that would help hem to improve hes results, i can tell you instead averaging 80% a week he lost 40% the first week and 30% the second, the best way to profitt on the markets is to learn to trade, you have in these site lots of skilled and experienced traders who can guide you througth the learning process.

 

[ilir.shkurti]

Hello all:

I am a brand new member and joined precisely because I wanted to see if anyone had had any experience with this system. I took the time to read this entire thread before participating (actually, real a lot into the other much longer one that is now closed, as well).

This system seems to benefit those who are experienced, rather than simply provide a solution for someone to aspire to make $300k a year on 20 contracts simply by following (their YTD P/L now reads $282k). Doing some rough math in my head, for 2009 so far the system has achieved somewhere just under 1.5 index points per contract, per trading day.

Short of divulging the actual method, can anyone explain whether the course enables a fairly proficient E-mini trader to set up a spreadsheet or some other 'civilian' non-techie tool to spot and calculate entries? I would be interested in spending a one-time fee of c. $600, but paying $200/month seems redundant, even if it's only 4 points . I could put $6k in a separate live account and trade it, while doing my own regular setup to pay my own bills in the mean time.

Btw, I trade overnight gaps and my tracing spreadsheet so far calculates an average of +1.97 ES points per contract, per trading session.

 

[ilir.shkurti]

To those posters who have tried this system, I am wondering regarding your adjusted stops after you scale out half the position. Why move stop at entry, and not a few ticks in its profitable side? Say you enter short at 1100, seeking 1098/1096. Once 1098 target fills, why not move stop at 1099, or even 1098.5? Thus, you lock some sort of profit on the second half of the position as well, while still allowing the index some room to move.

Also, 5 point stop appears too much for the target. Forget mathematics, two losers in a row in this setup wreaks havoc with one's mind. Only way I'd play this is on a secondary account, where I'd go experimental bat$h!t on full intraday margin capacity. Also, second target would be actively trailstopped (mechanically managed) to get the most bang.

Ilir
tradingfuturesblog.blogspot.com

 

[razor99]

Hello all:

I am a brand new member and joined precisely because I wanted to see if anyone had had any experience with this system. I took the time to read this entire thread before participating (actually, real a lot into the other much longer one that is now closed, as well).

This system seems to benefit those who are experienced, rather than simply provide a solution for someone to aspire to make $300k a year on 20 contracts simply by following (their YTD P/L now reads $282k). Doing some rough math in my head, for 2009 so far the system has achieved somewhere just under 1.5 index points per contract, per trading day.

Short of divulging the actual method, can anyone explain whether the course enables a fairly proficient E-mini trader to set up a spreadsheet or some other 'civilian' non-techie tool to spot and calculate entries? I would be interested in spending a one-time fee of c. $600, but paying $200/month seems redundant, even if it's only 4 points . I could put $6k in a separate live account and trade it, while doing my own regular setup to pay my own bills in the mean time.

Btw, I trade overnight gaps and my tracing spreadsheet so far calculates an average of +1.97 ES points per contract, per trading session.

You do not need the software to calculate entries. You do not even need a spreadsheet.I found it easier to mark them myself and didn't even use the software during the 30 day trial. I don't think anyone can duplicate the results posted for the following reason. Per the system 2 targets are established (2 and 4 points). The system recommends moving stop to break even after the 2 points are hit. If market reverses and stops, then you would have breakeven trade. But it will be posted as a 2 point winner...IMHO the results are inflated. That said I think it can be profitable, just not as spectacular as posted. The key is in the stop management. Would be interested in your gap trading method.

razor

 

[ilir.shkurti]

You do not need the software to calculate entries. You do not even need a spreadsheet.I found it easier to mark them myself and didn't even use the software during the 30 day trial. I don't think anyone can duplicate the results posted for the following reason. Per the system 2 targets are established (2 and 4 points). The system recommends moving stop to break even after the 2 points are hit. If market reverses and stops, then you would have breakeven trade. But it will be posted as a 2 point winner...IMHO the results are inflated. That said I think it can be profitable, just not as spectacular as posted. The key is in the stop management. Would be interested in your gap trading method.

razor

Here I was thinking he has actually added $282,000 of net equity to his account . Anyway...
As far as gap trading goes, it is simple. I trade early in the morning, around 6am EST (GMT +5) and try to enter at a point I judge to be farthest from previous session's closing. Asian and European volume widen the gap significally, sometimes with little fundamelntal justification. So, what I do is simply fade the movement towards the gap for one to three point generally. Ideally, I seek to exit before regular session opens. A major caveat in these premarket trades are significant reports due to be released. Dec. 4 was a poignant example of this, with over 14 points gained in a single 5min chart, a gap widening. The system is not robust, and I definitely look for complementing strategies. Hope this helps.

 

[ilir.shkurti]

I attended a webinar JP conducted two days ago. Overall a very nice guy, even answered a question of mine. I am sure system has merit, however, his average daily points are still too low, no doubt to his aggressive risk to return ratio. Professionals can no doubt pull this system off, but if you are a newbie (like myself) you may want to try something you feel comfortable with and have dry-tested before hand--it will do wonders on your confidence to hold on to trades during shaky moments.

Btw, I started a thread on my setups, which are gap-based. Have a results spreadsheet there as well: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/futures/81688-trading-gaps.html#post1001812

 

[ericjohnson]

I've actually purchased the system, paid additional to attend another after hour seminar, and purchased a lifetime alternative indicator for about 2k. Lets put it like this, when the system works it works but when it doesn't there is usually some adittional filtering out that you "supposedly" should have done.
You're risking like 5pts for a 2-4pt gain, you do the math. Part of the system suggest you to re-enter later if you're stopped out early, but two losses in a day will yield a total of 10 pts loss which will take five winning trades to cover (trust me, the system does fail twice in a day).
I actually teach math, let me make it simple for u. If the system works 70% of the time that's: 7 wins(14pts) + 3 losses(-15pts) = -1pt. 30 trades @ 70% winning = 3 point loss!!
But on the positive side he does offer a alternative indicator called the atlas line that at times can offer exposive gains, but in my opinion only if the risk rewards are right because it can often be wrong more than once a day.
Long story short, i followed the system and won on my first day, then kept following the system, and eventually my losses completely engulfed any and all earnings from my wins.
Summary: the earnings posted on the site are not all accurate because they include filtered trades which are "special situations" in which you should have not entered. The problem with that is the "filtering" is based on your judgement, not the rules of the system(contradiciting). I actually backtesed the system for 2009 and compared my results with the site's and they were not accurate (far off). Overall: Is it a rip-off? Not entirely, just very questionable reporting of accurate results on a consistent baasis. It does work sometimes, but as i illustrated above 70% is far beyond sometimes and with the risk reward of the system you still lose. Do i feel ripped off? Not really, I learned how to use ninja trader through the process. Just wish the results reported on the sight were more consistently accurate and reflective of the actual results of using the system. The filtering, when to do it, is very inconsistent and if there's any dishonesty involved, the filtering the trade aspect is definitely the aliby or smoke and mirror part.

Wow. I actualy stayed up this late to relay this message. Hope it helps. Take care.:|:|