80% of traders lose money in the stock market?

[MainCycleV]

you should add 2 more options which's 5% and less than 5%

Yeah, you are right, and I know your answer.

 

[Splitlink]

I believe that there is an inbedded necessity for traders to express their ideas to someone and here is a place to do it in anomymity. If we are proved wrong we can live with being told that we are talking BS. At least, it is not our friends and relatives who are spreading the word around the block!

No one knows the real truth about anyone and we all of us, me included, like to chat and pat each other on the back. A poster expresses an idea and others will assess the value of investigating it, but I doubt very much whether the original idea will be used. It will be adjusted, in some way. That is why systems fail. Not, necessarily, because they are bad, but because they cannot be followed to the letter, which is what every system demands.

So, the failure of a system, by some unsuccessful poster, becomes the basis of a thread running into pages of, really, quite useless but, to some, entertaining waffle with quite a lot of vendor bashing taking place. Most of it has little to do with trading but we all like to believe that it does.

 

[jthetrader]

I believe that there is an inbedded necessity for traders to express their ideas to someone and here is a place to do it in anomymity. If we are proved wrong we can live with being told that we are talking BS. At least, it is not our friends and relatives who are spreading the word around the block!

Yeah traders, as a general rule, must be awful gossips because it is their opinions which move markets. I read on a BBC article that oil traders spend most of their on instant messengers talking to other oil traders

No one knows the real truth about anyone and we all of us, me included, like to chat and pat each other on the back. A poster expresses an idea and others will assess the value of investigating it, but I doubt very much whether the original idea will be used. It will be adjusted, in some way. That is why systems fail. Not, necessarily, because they are bad, but because they cannot be followed to the letter, which is what every system demands.

Well surely once the good idea has been disseminated it will be pretty much useless? In the end everyone has access to the same information, how they use that information is what differentiates the good from the not so good, would you agree?

 

[wackypete2]

Hi jthetrader,

I'd like to discuss a few points you make. I'll start by asking a simple question. How much starting capital do you think you will need to produce the consistent weekly profit you want based on your 2 quotes below?

I have yet to be pointed in the direction of anyone who is making £5,000 or £10,000 a week, at least not without assuming huge risk and going bust eventually. So I'm guessing such people are very rare or they don't frequent T2W.

I can't see myself wanting to become a full time trader for less than £3,000 a week

Peter

 

[Splitlink]

Well surely once the good idea has been disseminated it will be pretty much useless? In the end everyone has access to the same information, how they use that information is what differentiates the good from the not so good, would you agree?

I don't see why it should. One of the simplest strategies of all and as old as the hills, works time after time. The piercing of a strongly trending average. There are traders who do nothing else. A pullback into a strongly trending average is a great signal and would have worked on the FT this morning, for instance. How many trades per morning session are needed? If I can get one like today, I am happy, so what does anyone want fulltime trading job for?

I had to go out this morning, BTW, and have just got back. So did not have the onerous job of watching it. If I had done, I would have made less money, for sure! Which goes to show that I am human, like the rest.

Lesson.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

 

[MainCycleV]

Yeah traders, as a general rule, must be awful gossips because it is their opinions which move markets. I read on a BBC article that oil traders spend most of their on instant messengers talking to other oil traders



Well surely once the good idea has been disseminated it will be pretty much useless? In the end everyone has access to the same information, how they use that information is what differentiates the good from the not so good, would you agree?

Yeah, you are right. but just partially right. When a specific good method has been disseminated, it will be pretty much useless; but if a general insight becomes public, it will be still useful and right.
Usually, big traders or fatcat can make a better decision, not because they are smarter than small trader, most of because they know more information or know the inside information earlier.

 

[neil]

Does trading addiction cause one to lose women or gain
loose women?

Smut !!
Pah !.......Wait 'til your mum gets you home:cheesy:

Don't confuse literacy with degeneracy

 

[Dogged]

That's it. I'm litering my ansers with spelling erors just to spite you guys.

On the subject, I love to hear people say they have a great and profitable system, probe them further to find out it hasn't been working well recently and they are changing it. Or how when someone asks a question for" successful traders" to answer, they get no one claiming to be a success, but a lot of people claiming to be an authority. The original question is valid. I'm all about hope and believing but this ends up being a very expensive hobby for most people.

 

[jthetrader]

Hi jthetrader,

I'd like to discuss a few points you make. I'll start by asking a simple question. How much starting capital do you think you will need to produce the consistent weekly profit you want based on your 2 quotes below?


Peter

In order to actually start generating returns of £3,000 a week 'safely' (by which I mean not as the result of a fluke and excessive leverage) I would have said, based on estimates given by others here, that around £300,000 of capital would be required. However, you could build up from £10,000 to that level and then once you had the £300,000 you could quit your job and start trading dedicatedly.

The problem being of course that someone who isn't trading full time is unlikely to grow £10,000 into £300,000.

And, given the law of large numbers and accounting for slippage etc, I would have said £5,000 a week would require something like £750,000 of capital to start with. And probably £2 million for £10,000 a week. Just making a somewhat educated guess here, since £10,000 a week would probably require multiple £1mn+ positions to be taken every week, which would result in some slippage and would require having access to a 'proper broker' rather than a retail broker.

 

[jthetrader]

I don't see why it should. One of the simplest strategies of all and as old as the hills, works time after time. The piercing of a strongly trending average. There are traders who do nothing else. A pullback into a strongly trending average is a great signal and would have worked on the FT this morning, for instance. How many trades per morning session are needed? If I can get one like today, I am happy, so what does anyone want fulltime trading job for?

I just find it hard to believe you can make real money without doing full time, tough work. I'm too much of a believer in the efficiency of the capitalist system though.

I had to go out this morning, BTW, and have just got back. So did not have the onerous job of watching it. If I had done, I would have made less money, for sure! Which goes to show that I am human, like the rest.

Wouldn't successful trend following require superior access to markets to that most people have? How does it work does the broker get a kickback to front run the trend follower's orders, so he has US$20mn chasing Pounds and he puts his mate's US$ to GBP order through first to get him a preferential rate and then does the same thing to close him out? I am not being facetious but I can't see how trend followers make money overall unless they have some way of getting in before the crowd and out before them too.

Lesson.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

True.

 

[wackypete2]

The problem being of course that someone who isn't trading full time is unlikely to grow £10,000 into £300,000.

Your numbers are in the ballpark and you hit the nail on the head in the above quote. That is exactly why it's difficult to find anyone making that kind of money full time. It's not due to lack of skill or motivation.

So, maybe I'm missing your point, but you seem to think that someone making consistent profits, enough to make a living but much less that your stated target, should just give up. I don't understand that logic. I agree in many cases it may seem that the "hourly wage" isn't much better that a decent office or management job, but you underestimate the value of working at home vs. working in an office for a boss... and I don't mean the pajamas.

Peter

 

[jthetrader]

Your numbers are in the ballpark and you hit the nail on the head in the above quote. That is exactly why it's difficult to find anyone making that kind of money full time. It's not due to lack of skill or motivation.

Phew! Overoptimism is a curse if you're a trader.

So, maybe I'm missing your point, but you seem to think that someone making consistent profits, enough to make a living but much less that your stated target, should just give up. I don't understand that logic. I agree in many cases it may seem that the "hourly wage" isn't much better that a decent office or management job, but you underestimate the value of working at home vs. working in an office for a boss... and I don't mean the pajamas.

Peter

I meant that for me £3,000 would be the point at which I would be able to think to myself, "I'm good enough at this to do it full time, I have a financial cushion (by virtue of the fact I have the money necessary to generate such returns) and the opportunity cost of not being in a conventional job is insignificant". If I were making £500 a week trading part time I'd be scared to quit a £500 a week job in the hope of making £1,000 a week trading full-time. If you quit your salaried job and suddenly your trading skills turn out not to be quite as razor sharp as you thought they were and you're out of a job and out of money you've clearly, in hindsight, made a bad decision. At the £300,000 in spare capital level (which would take most people many years to accumulate) you won't be out on the street if you take a big loss.

Of course there are many benefits to working from home. Monetary and non-monetary


P.S. the figures I gave to generate the three respective levels of weekly income assume little (no more than 2:1) or no leverage, are they still correct or were you assuming I meant £300,000 with a lot of leverage to make £3,000 a week?

 

[wackypete2]

I meant that for me £3,000 would be the point at which I would be able to think to myself, "I'm good enough at this to do it full time, I have a financial cushion (by virtue of the fact I have the money necessary to generate such returns) and the opportunity cost of not being in a conventional job is insignificant".

OK, no problem with that.There's nothing wrong with having goals as long as they are realistically attainable.

If you quit your salaried job and suddenly your trading skills turn out not to be quite as razor sharp as you thought they were and you're out of a job and out of money you've clearly, in hindsight, made a bad decision.

Of course the flip side of your argument is in this economy you could just as easily get laid off and have to fall back on your trading until you get another job.

Peter

 

[jthetrader]

OK, no problem with that.There's nothing wrong with having goals as long as they are realistically attainable.

I don't think £3,000 a week is attainable for me now, but in 10 years maybe it will be.

Of course the flip side of your argument is in this economy you could just as easily get laid off and have to fall back on your trading until you get another job.

Peter

Yeah, so being able to trade is probably a very useful skill, but if you can trade profitably you are quids in whatever happens.

The process of becoming profitable is an expensive process anyway and it is something of a gamble, that is the real gamble which new traders make isn't it? If you could be certain that with 3 years of trading experience and £20,000 in losses you could become a £1,000 a week trader then there would be no risk attached to taking the plunge, unfortunately no-one can promise anyone else such results.

 

[TakeYourProfits]

ok, the question is how many traders CAN make money... right? I personally think anyone CAN do this job. now, does everyone WANT to do what it takes to make money? or do most people secretly prefer to ride on the emotional roller coaster that is the gambler's approach to the market?

unfortunately most people would prefer to play with their money rather than work with their money... at the end of the day though, i think anyone CAN do this... the question really should be:

Are you willing to sacrifice your time in order to put in the effort that it takes to make money consistently year in and year out?

i think if you analyze that question, i think you will find the essence of the commitment required to be truly successful at this game.

imo

 

[slabbenchpress]

I don't know about sacrificing my life, but as an additional source of income, trading could be really good once I master my demo account and start trading with real money.

 

[neil]

ok, the question is how many traders CAN make money... right? I personally think anyone CAN do this job. now, does everyone WANT to do what it takes to make money? or do most people secretly prefer to ride on the emotional roller coaster that is the gambler's approach to the market?

unfortunately most people would prefer to play with their money rather than work with their money... at the end of the day though, i think anyone CAN do this... the question really should be:

Are you willing to sacrifice your life in order to put in the effort that it takes to make money consistently year in and year out?

i think if you analyze that question, i think you will find the essence of the commitment required to be truly successful at this game.

imo

Oxymoron - If you're dead then you cannot trade and, therefore, cannot lose money:whistling

 

[TakeYourProfits]

*time* the havoc a simple misspelling can create... thanks for pointing it out

 

[safvan]

There are many ways to get access to capital if you have a decent trading or investing history. One has to build a decent return portfolio and then run around for investors money. This is how hedge funds are setup and how people earn or lose large amounts of money.

There are ways to get jobs in asset management or decent reputed prop firms also once you have some talent to show.

Quitting your day job to start some thing on your own is a difficult thing to do. People have families and other commitments.

It is a safe bet to do it small and on the side for long periods of time until you get really good at it which you WILL eventually by doing it again and again over time provided you have a full time day job.

I also believe that there are two kinds of people in this world. The ones that have the entrepreneurial spirit and the ones that do not. It is really about that.

This is my question to all the part time traders on this forum that have day time jobs and are not self employed in any form:

How many times have you had a business idea but never tried to actually go about it? the excuse could be anything from quitting day time job, lack of funding, lack of understanding of the industry, blah, blah etc

You see there are some people who are meant to succeed because they do not want to see the other option which is to fail. For them its not about making $3k a week. Its about being able to do what they always wanted to do and be the best at it. These are the people that make $xxxk per day so to speak.

 

[alljoe]

Since there must be a looser for every winner in a trade, it cant be over 50%.