Trade2Win's 10 Year Anniversary - Day 5 (Anatomy of a Trade)

This is a discussion on Trade2Win's 10 Year Anniversary - Day 5 (Anatomy of a Trade) within the T2W Announcements forums, part of the Off the Grid category; Originally Posted by timsk I've read your post several times and I'm still undecided as to whether or not it's ...

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Old Jan 21, 2011, 11:21am   #29
Joined Apr 2006
Re: Trade2Win's 10 Year Anniversary - Day 5 (Anatomy of a Trade)

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Originally Posted by timsk View Post
I've read your post several times and I'm still undecided as to whether or not it's a complete pi$$ take or whether you're actually being serious! (I'm referring to the random component of your system - as opposed to the profitability of it.)
I am completely serious, and there are extremely good reasons why I take this approach. This game isnt as hard as people make out, you need to minimise the size of your average loss (my losing trade was a reasonable example of reducing a potential 1R loss to a 0.5R loss), you need to maximise your average gain. Improving hit rate helps too, and I can usually get trend direction right most of the time, but the random entry component tends to erode the benefit of that.

Add in some diversification, and sensible position sizing and the jobs a good un.
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Old Jan 21, 2011, 11:24am   #30
 
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Re: Trade2Win's 10 Year Anniversary - Day 5 (Anatomy of a Trade)

Alas it is a Friday so no trade me for. The books would make a fine addition. Good Luck
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Old Jan 21, 2011, 11:25am   #31
 
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A trade on gbpusd today

Cable today had rallyed again off yesterday's 5835 lo ( 38.2% 5473-6059 in a 1hr/4hr previous swing lo zone) following an initial 5943 pullback hi, a retest and a dip to 5883 overnight (asian session) Lo. Price then tested and rejected for the 3rd time the 5943 pullback hi (61.8% of the 6009- said 5835 lo)...the first 2 attempts had formed a previous 1hr swing hi zone (ie previous resistance = previous near-term obvious imbalance of supply/demand) See 1hr screenshot below - the circled area is where the 3rd test was, the 1hr 100 sma was also there as confluence (yellow line)

Click the image to open in full size.

I had missed the 5min set-up right at the top (5943) on the 5min t/f...a regular bearish divergence set-up with a bearish engulfing candle close trigger, there was also regular bearish divergence on the 15 and 30min t/f's

Click the image to open in full size.

Staying on that 5min and the resultant price action from the potential resistance confluence of the previous 1hr swing hi zone x 2/100sma-1hr/61.8% 6009-5835 - there had been a HL as price pulled back from the 3rd test rejection at 5944 H, then a LH, and then a L formed and then a potential 2nd LH as price pulled back from that L. From the 5944 H there had been a bearish engulfing at that 5min H (5943) and a decisice rejection forming the 1st 5min LH. Then when that pullback occurred off the first L on this 5min t/f ( a L under the last HL) the pullback paused at the previous swing low , ie the last HL (previous support now = potential resistance) and this was accompanied by a 1min hidden divergence based set-up to get short there...see pics below...

Click the image to open in full size.

The 1min hidden divergence based set-up is here:

Click the image to open in full size.

Despite the 3 x rejections of the 5943 area I still wanted more confirmation that shorting from here was the highest probability direction from this area particularly as on the 1min set-up entry the 5min 2nd LH was not fractally formed unless/until the 0855and 0900am 5min candles had close, and there had been no LL yet on 5min constituting a fully formed overall price action-peak/valley analysis downtrend on this t/f. I therefore rejected the 1min set-up and waited for the 0855 5min candle to close which it did as a master bearish engulfing inverted hammer candle (bearish candle,) engulfing the last 4 x candles on this 5min t/f...this provided the trigger to get short from this 2nd potential LH on 5min...A LL resulted on this 5min t/f now downtrend, and price continued down until a bounce of the new ascending 4hr trend line after a further knee-jerk leg down after the 0930am Uk data.

Click the image to open in full size.

I exited the trade as price hit a previous obvious swing lo on the 1hr t/f (ie a previous near-term area where there existed an imbalance of demand/supply) price did indeed bounce from here and went on to form a 3rd LH and then went south again for a further 5min leg down (but that's another story...) The previous 1hr swing lo zone is shown below.

Click the image to open in full size.

The 5min screenshot shows it more clearly below. You will see the small vounce from the previous 1hr swing lo zone (previous near-term obvious imbalance of demand/supply) before a further 2 x legs down from a 3rd and 4th LH on this 5min t/f;

Click the image to open in full size.


G/L
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Last edited by bbmac; Jan 21, 2011 at 5:16pm. Reason: made clearer hopefully
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Old Jan 21, 2011, 11:30am   #32
 
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Re: Trade2Win's 10 Year Anniversary - Day 5 (Anatomy of a Trade)

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Originally Posted by counter_violent View Post
Right i'd better keep it simple.

Short AUDUSD

This trade opened @ .9850
Target will be @ .9750
Stop will be @ .9915

Chart 1 shows first and second legs of what I believe will be a third leg continuation move.

Rational for this trade is. Continued relative usd dollar strength versus continued relative aud and gold weakness.

Theres no sense in expanding on this basic premise. Most over complicate analysis to the point where they get nothing done.

Win or lose, this is the trade I am in.

If target is not met, then I will probably close before end of play.
Nice legs. Good luck.
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Old Jan 21, 2011, 11:32am   #33
 
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Re: Trade2Win's 10 Year Anniversary - Day 5 (Anatomy of a Trade)

bbmac is the winner !
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Old Jan 21, 2011, 11:32am   #34
 
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Re: Trade2Win's 10 Year Anniversary - Day 5 (Anatomy of a Trade)

errrr - shouldn't we actually have some evidence trades were taken ?

Otherwise people can just pick a chart in retrospect & say something sensible about it.
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I cannot see., however why we should expect to find a "system" which will work in the stock market; surely the possibilities of profits for the student justify the time and effort required to learn market interpretation.

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Old Jan 21, 2011, 11:45am   #35
 
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Re: Trade2Win's 10 Year Anniversary - Day 5 (Anatomy of a Trade)

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Originally Posted by DionysusToast View Post
errrr - shouldn't we actually have some evidence trades were taken ?

Otherwise people can just pick a chart in retrospect & say something sensible about it.
Heavens! Do you not trust your fellow members?
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