Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

This is a discussion on Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders within the Indices forums, part of the Markets category; Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said currency intervention might be an option if exchange rates make irregular moves, in an ...

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Old Sep 29, 2009, 6:30am   #13996
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wallstreet1928 started this thread Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said currency intervention might be an option if exchange rates make irregular moves, in an apparent effort to dampen the impact of his previous comments that he favored a strong yen.

The yen hit an eight-month high of 88.22 to the dollar on Monday in the wake of repeated comments from Fujii that he wanted to avoid intervention and that a strong yen was good for Japanese domestic demand.

The Japanese currency has since pulled back to near 90.00 to the dollar, giving up all of Monday's gains, as Fujii backpedalled.

"Perhaps Fujii didn't realize how much the market would move on his comments after he became finance minister. But now he realizes that this isn't such a good thing," said Tokichi Ito, deputy general manager of the foreign exchange team at Trust & Custody Services Bank in Tokyo.

"I doubt Fujii has abandoned his view that a strong yen is good for domestic demand and this view is shared by the government. But the yen buying in reaction to the government's stance has likely run its course."

Dollar Hits 8-Month Low vs Yen; Euro Slips
A strong yen has been generally viewed as negative for Japan's export-reliant economy.

It also puts downward pressure on prices in a country where deflation is already at record levels, keeping the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates from near zero any time soon.

Fujii reiterated on Tuesday that global competition to devalue currencies was wrong, but that this didn't mean Tokyo would leave excessive yen rises unattended.

"If moves are irregular, there is a possibility we might take whatever action deemed necessary for the sake of the country," Fujii told a news conference after a cabinet meeting.

He said that his message had been consistent but that it was being misinterpreted by markets.

"I never said a word about leaving a strong yen as it is. I'm saying it's wrong, as history shows, for countries to continuously take policies aimed at lowering the value of their currencies," Fujii said.

Japan Deflation Deepens, Weak Demand Hitting Prices
Analysts were unconvinced, however, saying market forces had led Fujii, picked as finance minister after voters swept the Democratic Party to power at the end of August, to beat a retreat from his previous comments.

"Fujii appears to have been jolted by the yen's rapid appreciation and is worried that the strong yen would throw cold water on the economic recovery led by exports. But it is unlikely the government actually will intervene in the market," said Takumi Tsunoda, an economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute.

The yen strengthened steadily from about 93.00 to the dollar at the start of September as Fujii said many times that he didn't see the need to weaken the Japanese unit for the sake of the country's exporters and that a strong currency also had benefits.

The currency finally hit 88.22 to the dollar on Monday according to Reuters data, the highest level since January, before snapping back towards 90.00.

The dollar climbed back above 90.00 yen briefly on Tuesday, reflecting Fujii's repeated warnings that currency moves were getting too one-sided towards yen rises.

"Until yesterday, he seemed to cheer the strong yen, but now he can't stand it," said Dariusz Kowalczyk, chief investment strategist at SJS Markets Ltd in Hong Kong.

"It puts a question mark on the stability of his policies and how well they are thought out for the long term. It might be better to support exports in the short term and allow the currency to strengthen later once domestic demand picks up more."

In the past, Japan intervened to weaken the yen to help its exporters stay competitive.

But Tokyo has not intervened in the currency market since March 2004, after a 15-month-long, 35 trillion yen ($390.4 billion) selling spree aimed at preventing the yen's strength from snuffing out an economic recovery.
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Old Sep 29, 2009, 7:15am   #13997
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The US markets rallied on very low volume. The volume similar to the july lows after which the market rallied. Such low volumes typically occur on peaks or bottoms. I think we could go down again
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Old Sep 29, 2009, 7:17am   #13998
Joined Oct 2008
Interesting stuff re: yen, WS - shall be an interesting day for the crosses there after the recent fight back.

Over at AUDUSD I am short now @ 8753 - see this pair as ranging (as dollar crosses tend to do before NFP) and selling on a bias change back into the range now 10% from the high.

EDIT: Out -11, 'tis not time!!!

Last edited by lapalabra; Sep 29, 2009 at 7:50am.
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Old Sep 29, 2009, 7:20am   #13999
Joined Sep 2009
Morning everyone. Also, big MACD divergence on FTSE 100 15M. Should also be on 30M. Gotta go to 9 to 5 today folks. Cya later.
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Old Sep 29, 2009, 7:37am   #14000
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wallstreet1928 started this thread for those interested

FTSE - daily forecast - important levels posted on

UK FTSE 100 - Key Levels To Watch For 29th Sept 2009 | Benzinga.com
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Old Sep 29, 2009, 8:07am   #14001
 
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Short Cable 15906
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Old Sep 29, 2009, 8:15am   #14002
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chelski View Post
Short Cable 15906
Alerts triggering all over the place. Nice catch on cable, Chelski.

Short EURJPY 13156

Finally some move back from the retracements on yen crosses looks on the cards.

EDIT: Also short CHFJPY 8703

Trades now @ zero risk
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Old Sep 29, 2009, 8:21am   #14003
 
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Heres my entry.

Nice Breakout. I came in on the 8:00 after we bounced of 20MA.
Closed +40 on pivot.
Sorry chart is messy but i am following several possible outcomes.
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Old Sep 29, 2009, 8:22am   #14004
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Originally Posted by lapalabra View Post
Alerts triggering all over the place. Nice catch on cable, Chelski.

Short EURJPY 13156

Finally some move back from the retracements on yen crosses looks on the cards.

EDIT: Also short CHFJPY 8703

Trades now @ zero risk
Should have stuck with my darn AUDUSD - was within the rules to stay in but 'due to doubt' kicked in as always.

Back in there now with stop over previous swing high, looking for dark cloud on this 4H bar finishing. Entry 8751.
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Old Sep 29, 2009, 8:29am   #14005
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Heres my entry.

Nice Breakout. I came in on the 8:00 after we bounced of 20MA.
Closed +40 on pivot.
Sorry chart is messy but i am following several possible outcomes.
Very, very nice

Everything came at once with yen and usd, there was a lot to choose from - think you got the best USD trade though, pip-wise and risk wise. Nice one.
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Old Sep 29, 2009, 8:32am   #14006
Joined Oct 2008
wallstreet1928 started this thread EURO getting another clobbering .........

I feel like Timmy mallet ..........

Nice trade on cable chelski...I thought it was making a recovery until you went short on it...haha!!

follow this trendline chaps ........

i think i have made well over 400 pips utilising it
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Old Sep 29, 2009, 8:35am   #14007
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Very, very nice

Everything came at once with yen and usd, there was a lot to choose from - think you got the best USD trade though, pip-wise and risk wise. Nice one.
Need to cover the early morning loss and a wider stop loss on current AUDUSD so I'm positive on the day at the very least, so closing CHFJPY for +32.

EURJPY still on for +48 at the mo and AUDUSD for +8.
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Old Sep 29, 2009, 8:38am   #14008
 
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Very, very nice
Thanks,

Always nice to start the day like that, i am out soon so probably close down soon.
looks like Cable was in a channel, may be more downside if she breaks.
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Old Sep 29, 2009, 8:41am   #14009
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Thanks,

Always nice to start the day like that, i am out soon so probably close down soon.
looks like Cable was in a channel, may be more downside if she breaks.
I've noticed your trades are usually this time in the morning - do you watch for a break of TL/range in the am, or give more weight to a bounce off MA?
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Old Sep 29, 2009, 8:41am   #14010
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wallstreet1928 View Post
EURO getting another clobbering .........

I feel like Timmy mallet ..........

Nice trade on cable chelski...I thought it was making a recovery until you went short on it...haha!!

follow this trendline chaps ........

i think i have made well over 400 pips utilising it

Thanks WS,

I have to admit, between 7-8 it couldn't make its mind up, i was ready to go either way.
Long with trend if we held the line was a possibility too.
Lesson for the day is PATIENCE!!
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