Why do they do it?

meanreversion · Jan 27, 2011, 8:59am

Hmm, it might. Thus buy the put spread, and take profit once it gets to 30% of its full value?

But buying low delta payouts leads to a high number of losing trades with the occasional winner, our cognitive bias don't like that, no sir!

the hare · Jan 27, 2011, 9:14am

Quote:

Originally Posted by DionysusToast

Pay for the trading thing, you lose your life savings.

There are one or two cases that I'm aware of where individuals topped themselves when the realisation finally hit them that their guru wasnt all quite he made out to be.

Still its a big boys game and their loss is our gain.

Masquerade · Jan 27, 2011, 9:25am

Quote:

Originally Posted by the hare

Still its a big boys game and their loss is our gain.

That's really not true, a lot of these start up retail traders will be using spread betting/OTC retail FX brokers so their loss has 0 impact on you.

counter_violent · Jan 27, 2011, 9:40am

I'm completely at odds with 95% of posts in this thread.

Let me try and explain something. If you have an expectation of a trade direction, then the thing that proves the trade is the delivery of that expectation...in other words...when you are in the zone and things are going your way, that is the time to milk it for all it's worth.
It's exactly the same thing with Robster's poker quote. You have to press your advantage when that time comes.
When a boxer has someone on the ropes, he doesn't back off...he steps up his game to try and finish the job off !

Masquerade · Jan 27, 2011, 9:51am

Quote:

Originally Posted by counter_violent

When a boxer has someone on the ropes, he doesn't back off...he steps up his game to try and finish the job off !

How did that work out for George Foreman?

SanMiguel · Jan 27, 2011, 9:54am

Quote:

Originally Posted by counter_violent

I'm completely at odds with 95% of posts in this thread.

Let me try and explain something. If you have an expectation of a trade direction, then the thing that proves the trade is the delivery of that expectation...in other words...when you are in the zone and things are going your way, that is the time to milk it for all it's worth.
It's exactly the same thing with Robster's poker quote. You have to press your advantage when that time comes.
When a boxer has someone on the ropes, he doesn't back off...he steps up his game to try and finish the job off !

When I first read that, I read broker not boxer

counter_violent · Jan 27, 2011, 10:01am

Quote:

Originally Posted by counter_violent

I'm completely at odds with 95% of posts in this thread.

Let me try and explain something. If you have an expectation of a trade direction, then the thing that proves the trade is the delivery of that expectation...in other words...when you are in the zone and things are going your way, that is the time to milk it for all it's worth.
It's exactly the same thing with Robster's poker quote. You have to press your advantage when that time comes.
When a boxer has someone on the ropes, he doesn't back off...he steps up his game to try and finish the job off !

Add evidence of winners mentality.
Even the player name choice is designed to make the opposition doubt themselves.

bedsit · Jan 27, 2011, 10:02am

Quote:

Originally Posted by meanreversion

I watched Hougaard's room for a few days.. he alerts you to what he is about to do, "get ready to buy eurusd", then there'll be a pause of a few minutes and he'll type "ok bought at 52".. at which point you look at the screen and see a rate of 53/54.

That's not to say that he didn't buy at 52 of course, it's just that it's very hard for the user to replicate.

His website carries links to the Saxo platform, so it's a safe bet he'll get a rebate from any of his subscribers who sign up to that platform. But fair play to the man, he's putting his calls out there and his record is pretty good.

I'm not impressed with the results: October +72 points, November +139 and Dec. -14

Jan 27, 2011, 8:59am	#145
meanreversion Legendary Member Member Since Jan 2009 3,398 Posts	Re: Why do they do it? Hmm, it might. Thus buy the put spread, and take profit once it gets to 30% of its full value? But buying low delta payouts leads to a high number of losing trades with the occasional winner, our cognitive bias don't like that, no sir! __________________ Someone shoot me if I get to 3,500 posts

Jan 27, 2011, 9:40am	#148
counter_violent Legendary Member Member Since Aug 2004 4,415 Posts	Re: Why do they do it? I'm completely at odds with 95% of posts in this thread. Let me try and explain something. If you have an expectation of a trade direction, then the thing that proves the trade is the delivery of that expectation...in other words...when you are in the zone and things are going your way, that is the time to milk it for all it's worth. It's exactly the same thing with Robster's poker quote. You have to press your advantage when that time comes. When a boxer has someone on the ropes, he doesn't back off...he steps up his game to try and finish the job off ! __________________ There is a gaping chasm that separates wafflers from doers Time Series Modeling....It's The Future ! Superficial I Am

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