Education is the key

[Salty Gibbon]

The whole technical process took 27 years to finally refine.

Socrates

If you had had access to today's technology during the whole of the past 27 years, would your process have been shortened significantly, or was it mostly down to brain work ?

 

[des44]

Socrates for Prez.

d-

 

[RUDEBOY]

Don't know about Prez, but certainly first prize for the 'T2W Market Philosophy' competition. Good trading, Socs!

 

[ducati998]

SOC,
A classic outburst. I am heartbroken, normally I get accused of the largest and most rampant ego..........I have been crushed, but at least it was at the hands of a master.

In this regard, I have on several occasions on this website and others, demonstrated live, in real time, with time stamps to prove it,

Now of course this is the crux of the whole deal. I went through the search and selected the first "LIVE TRADES" that I came across. And here it is.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SOCRATES
Fireworks are expected. It all depends on whether they are deliverd dry or wet.


which translated means it could go up or down ? (this was quaza's response)

ETA fireworks lorry 1424.
__________________
SOCRATES
Many damp in this delivery Time1516 Last 89.5. U see ?
__________________
SOCRATES
Next one 85
__________________
SOCRATES
next one 83
__________________
SOCRATES
This continues for several more posts until poor old quaza, gets rather frustrated, and.....

I dont get it ................. you're giving me a running commentary of whats happening .......... but I can see it myself.............

The thread is........."DAYS OF STOPPING OUT QUESTION"

I do not make these posts whether in real time or in predictive mode (an all of them are right by the way, and deadly accurate) to demean or insult anyone.

Now I would have to agree with quaza, this is dross.
I expect to see, POSITION Size, an ENTRY Price, a STOPLOSS Price, a TARGET Price, and your eventual EXIT Price, with details of profit or loss.
This contains nothing, as was observed, just a running commentary. Absolute rubbish.

will continue to post real time trades, as and when appropriate, with or without futurlolgical content for your collective interest.

If this is the standard required, I shall have Romulus and Remus, my cats, also post their market calls.

As for the tutor being the tutor and the student being the student, we'll have to disagree there as well. A tutor who doesn't learn from his students is likely to be a pretty poor tutor. And the student who can't explain what he's learned to others hasn't learned much or learned well.

This is from DBP, and actually, again I would fully endorse his comment. The logic, is irrefutable

No, Trader 28 became a real nuisance in the middle of me calling the market correctly on Wednesday, live, level by level, with a torrent of abuse and aggressive contradiction without basis in fact.

Mabe in this respect, if this is what you do, he had a valid point?

What I am telling you is the consequence of my experience, which is considerable.

You mean well in the advice you offer, of that I have no doubt, but as a result of my experience, which is considerable, I know it to be surface advice and not really deep advice.

This is because trading records cannot show ability in actuality. They may illustrate the consequences of that ability in th past, with hindsight, and in any case those records could be fudged. Calling the market repeatedly accurately and date stamping it cannot be fudged.

Well, as you have so eloquently demonstrated, you have done nothing but fudge, obfuscate, smokescreen, and you have as point of fact proven that your statement is fatuous, devoid of thought, fact, and totally preposterous. Give me the trading record of W. Buffett any day, all trades for BRK.A are registered with SEC, audited accounts, etc.

And my posture remains rock solid on this, as a consequence of my experience, which is considerable.

The record could be the result of luck, because although luck in trading is rare, it does occur.

Give me that 40yrs of luck, thats all I require.

The record could show results in a steady bull market , in which everything bought is profitable soorner or later.

Or it could show results in a declining bear market in which whatever is sold eventually can be bought back cheaper, at a profit.

Totally devoid of any thought whatsoever.To pick a bullmarket, and stay in, not so easy to do. To then pick a bear market, again shows some skill. The best advice, easily given, but extraordinarily difficult to execute, buy low sell high. If that record covers a substantial time period, lets say 20yrs, then you have a quality stockpicker on your hands.

But doing it live is another matter altogether, both on the long side and the short side and pinpointing turns and bottoms and tops, especially in a public forum for the benefit of those interested and any witnesses who care to act as observers, and that is truly powerful in comparison to what you suggest.

But as you have demonstrated, this is not what you do. You are a commentator. Big difference. My suspicions were aroused when, I asked you to provide an analysis for me.........total silence. Actions speak far louder than words.

Fine, but my statements are the result of long experience and irrefutable supportable evidence to support them.

The whole technical process took 27 years to finally refine. The mind aspect took I think 7 years to develop and another say 4 to finally perfect.

27yrs, and 3 million pounds sterling. I would require faster progress than that. In that time, Buffett had turned $10K into $80M. And didn't lose any on the way up.

It makes me feel as if I am wired differently, which I probably am.

Having a steel trap mind also helps, particularly if you are an accomplished "visual mathematician", which I am.

Another very useful faculty is the ability to remember numerical clusters accurately. What is more important stlll is to be able to recognise the significance of these numerical clusters when they appear as they have a direct linkage to intent.

Now, this is where your claims can be tested, in more or less real time.
You claim to be able to divine "INTENT" from the numerical clusters.
My example of CPE still stands, devoid at the moment of any fundamental analysis. Post, based on the price clusters, the intent of anyone involved in the stock.

But it wasn't until my late twenties that I really got going. And the rest is legendary.

And to think, until I came here, I had never heard of you.
Cheers d998

 

[SOCRATES]

Socrates

If you had had access to today's technology during the whole of the past 27 years, would your process have been shortened significantly, or was it mostly down to brain work ?

Actually Salty, this is a very relevant question relating to the trading environment nowadays.

When I started, everything had to be done by hand, computers were in their infancy. They were not really available commercially and were huge, occupying a specially built air conditioned room that had to be kept dust free and at a fixed low temperature. Then with the advances in technology they became smaller and progressively more accessible and available to the public. The first ones operated on a floppy disc system. A floppy disc was really that. I remember when the first computers available commercially were priced at ridiculous prices by today's standards. Absolutely sky high.

When I was on the floor of the exchange, what was then regarded as a revolutionary step in improving communications was about to be installed. This consisted of the very first Reuters screens. They were much smaller than a sheet of foolscap, in black and white, bulky and clumsy and heavy . They displayed twenty stocks per page, with prices updated manually by the waiters#. All the details of the stock and price changes were done in white, no colour.

In order to find a stock you had to operate a small keyboard with up, down functions. There were only 320 of them in circulation as I recall, and were limited exclusively to the square mile, and only the institutions could afford them because the rental in those days was astronomically expensive, and the cost of running them must also have been horrendous since they operated via open BT telephone lines, just imagine.

In those days charting packages as we know them today were unheard of.

In consequence all charts had to be drawn by hand, and kept as folios, in loose leaf binders.

All the markings were done in pencil, HB, because this grade of pencil lead is easy to rub out or correct when necessary. Only the other day, I came across one of these among my books, dated 1969 - 1974, a complete record for London Brick Company done in point and figure on squared paper (10 to the inch) by myself. And if doing the chart by hand was not tedious enough, the information required to do it had to be dug up.

In those days there were two sources, the Official LIst out of the Financial Times that had the disadvantage that the "marks" published were not always in chronological order (because the tickets did not always show a time stamp or had the time written in when the bargain was "marked" in this way because of dealing pressure when things got the slightest bit busy) and these were late, as the marks published related to the previous day's dealings.

The other source of data was the "board" in the dealing box, or alternatively the Jobber's# boards, but at the end of the day they could not be considered absloutely reliable because many of the marks had been rubbed off during the day if the market had been busy.

I mention this so that you can have some idea of the dificulties involved in following price action.

There also existed a Reuters tape, which was not strictly a ticker tape as it included results and announcements in between the price stream, which made reading it very difficult. In the exchange there was only one. There were always crowds round it milling about so that was also very difficult.

The most reliable record of prices had to be the boards in the dealing box, in the corridors circling the floor. Each Broker and Jobber had one. This was a very ingerious contraption. Made of white acrylic, two were suspended on the walls one behind the other, connected with a two bicycle chains at the top corners and these chains were geared around a bicycle sprocket at each end which allowed the boards to be quickly moved up or down to expose either. I stlll remember the ripping noise the made when they were moved up or down. These are noises you never forget. If there are any members who were there at the time I am sure they will confirm this.

The prices were marked on this board, up in blue, down in red, with chinagraph pencils. At the end of the day they were wiped clean with a rag soaked in methylated spirits, so all the marks for my point and figure books had to be done at the end of the day. In exchange for this concession, I took it upon myself to clean them up when I had finished.

Anyone who has written and kept charts by hand will tell you that this practice sharpens understanding of price action. Some of my very advanced students are able to overcome some problems with this by having an enforced period of actually drawing charts by hand using the data extracted from a spreadsheet. I mention these things because they are relevant.

Once you have forced yourself to draw the charts by hand your grip on price action improves as a consequence of experiencing enforced familiarity with the instrument being charted. But because real time and end of day charts are commonplace nowadays, the need for carrying out this excercise is not viewed as necessary any more, but the experience is very reinforcing and supportive of a general and specific understanding of what price action is all about.

So you see that all these things in those days were very tedious, but I do not regret any of it as it was the basis on which I was later to build an edge, my personal edge. There is no alternative to graft. The problem is that the graft that a trader has to do is not physical, it is mental, and therefore to observer, invisible. It is as if it were not taking place at all.

I must mention that one of my top students was at home, in front of his screen, in his room, quiet as a mouse, watching price action unfolding and waiting for an opportunity. His sister in law, whenever she came to visit, noticed he was repeateadly conspicuous by his absence. On this occasion, she ventured to enter his dealing room unannounced and uninvited. She sees him sitting there, apparently (to her) not doing anything. "Oh ! " ...."Is that all you do ?"She says with a grin on her face. "Yes", he calmly replied, "that is all I do". From that day onwards he only worked strictly behind locked doors.

So you see all of this in some way or another has to do with brainwork, what we call "applied brainwork". Today's modern technology does not exonerate us from the brainwork. This is because computers are not able to think for themselves. To think this could be so is a fool's paradise, because some of the most intelligent people in the world are attracted to this proffession, and what you are up against is the best. I am talking from a trading and dealing point of view exclusively.

The other aspect of brainwork is what I had to do to unravel all of this. That for me was a huge odessey. It was not uncommon for me to have all my meals served on a tray for perhaps two days and nights when I was engaged in trying to solve a riddle, as I was determined not to go to bed until the riddle was solved to my complete satisfaction, and, furthermore, that the solution was the correct one, and was able to fit seamlessly with everything else, that is, not force fitted at all.

In consequence of this, I went through a stage of not going out into the street for months on end. I had my tobacco delivered in terms of a year's supply, or six months supply or whatever. It was like a sort of "Rip Van Winkle" type of experience. I would venture out of my front door to go and post a letter or something, and all the shops had changed, nothing was as I had seen it perhaps many weeks or even several months before.

Of course, computers are wonderful. They allowed me to find answers to questions in days rather than years. I had several programmers I could rely on to carry out missions for me.
The nature of these missions was for them to construct software, expendable software that would allow me to explore a particular concept and to see where it led, or , to have an idea verified or not. This cannot be in practicality done by hand. The cost was enormous, but the benefits huge. This is because when you are able to eliminate all that does not work, that which works, and works repeateadly and reliably, however improbable, or seemingly arcane, or off the wall, must be correct.

The process, in my view, having experienced the odessey, could not have been shortened as I had to unravel it all on my own. Had I not had to follow the route I did, as a consequence of having been given help, it would have made it shorter, but not as complete.

Also, I would not have had the need to add refinements. It is the final refinement that grants the ultimate edge. This is because the ultimate edge is a very personal thing, as a consequence of what leads to it being essentially experiential and cognitive. This is a developed faculty that computers and software and books even cannot deliver. So yes, ultimately it is all down to brainwork, brainwork of the most focused and intense sort. If you are looking for a challenge in this regard you have no further to look than the markets. No one is exonerated from engaging brain, and keeping it engaged.


Historical Note:~


Footnote # Waiters:~

The waiters were funcionaries of the exchange and carried out mixed
duties. They wore red livery. The name given to them originated in the
days from Jonathan's Coffee House in Exchange Alley in which buyers
and sellers would meet to trade in securities, the waiters there were
real waiters and waited upon the customers to serve them coffee.
Exchange Alley itself no longer exists. All the buildings at that time
were made of wood and were swept away by the Great Fire of London.
(1666?) The Exchange was later formalised and moved to Threadneedle St.
The building was reconstructed in the 1960's and now is occupied by the
boundary of Threadneedle St., Bartholomew Lane, Copthall St., if my memory
serves me correctly, which I think it does.

Footnote# :~ Jobber.

The forerunner of today's marketmakers, who operated a quote driven system instead of an order driven system. They kept the "Book" for each group of securities they dealt in, in alphabetical order, divided into 4 or 6 such books, known as Jobbers' Ledgers The folios ran on a Kalamazoo system. Each of them must have weighed a ton ! They were about 18" X 10" X 4", and at the end of the day were wheeled with handcarts, piles of them, back to the Jobbers' offices, in and around Finsbury Circus........ a lost world....In the days when shoes had laces and trousers had braces and ties were quiet, and when everyone knew his place, was polite and respectful and all of this without exception, in the hands of gentlemen, nudge.

I must finally record, that as far as I am concerned, I considered it both and honour and a priviledge to have been there. I would also like to take the opportunity to convey greetings
to my old friends dating back to those days, Dulux, Rupert, Bill, Sandy, Malcolm amd Jeremy.
Billy Dennet passed away 4 years ago.

Kind Regards As Usual.

 

[Salty Gibbon]

Thanks Socrates. Excellent post

 

[ducati998]

Book Smarts vs. Street Smarts: Who Can Really Do the Job Better?
by Gina LaGuardia


The current season of The Apprentice has taken viewers on a roller-coaster ride of disbelief, hope for the underdog, and a hearty dose of "uh-oh" moments. The format for forming teams*--book smarts vs. street smarts--sets us up for drama not far removed from the real world. Could Magna Corp.--academically brilliant grads from top colleges--outfox the pavement-pounding prowess of the "street-smart" Net Worth team? Above all, since many people watch The Apprentice with hopes of learning more about the inner workings of a boardroom, what does the outcome mean to America's corporate strivers and armchair CEOs?

We decided to ask successful executives and management experts to handicap the race to the last boardroom showdown, and in the process, to shed some insight on the true ingredients of corporate success.

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Is an MBA a ticket to success?

An effective leader needs both a strong intellect and in-the-trenches leadership skills, says businessman Wayne McVicker, an architect, writer, and entrepreneur with more than 25 years experience in the design, healthcare, and IT industries. While at the helm of his prior company, a dot-com darling, he was urged by board members to hire fresh MBAs from top schools to work on business development. McVicker was skeptical about relying on academic credentials, but agreed to give them a try.

"While I found them to be consistently smart, charming, and intimidating," he recalls, many of them didn't work out, and "were among the first to go during our mid-2000 belt-tightening."

Smart, charming, and intimidating? Sounds a lot like how viewers initially perceived the book-smart Magna team on The Apprentice. But as the weeks passed, and the bookworms fell behind, many began to wonder if having roll-up-your-sleeves experience supersedes the scholastic spectrum of learning.

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An A+ in interpersonal skills

"Street-smart people may not have gotten an A+ [in school], but they handle others in an A+ manner," says Laurie Puhn, author of Instant Persuasion: How to Change Your Words to Change Your Life. "They can take an average idea, but once they gain input, support, and cooperation from others, that idea becomes extraordinary. People are interested in hearing the idea, and come to respect it."

Though she has a B.A. from Harvard University and a J.D. from Harvard Law School, Puhn believes this season's ultimate "Apprentice" victory--and any victorious hiring in real life--will come as a result of someone illustrating an ability to not only lead with passion, but to convince others that he or she is right for the job. "You don't have to be smarter, richer, or luckier to get what you want. You just need to be persuasive."

Alexandra Levit, author of They Don't Teach Corporate in College, would agree. Levit's story is similar to many book-smart types, both on TV and off. When she graduated from college as a straight-A student intent on shooting straight to the top of the corporate ladder, she was actually having delusions of Omarosa proportions. And you remember what happened to her, right?

What Levit has come to realize since then is how critical it is to build effective relationships. "Creating and sustaining a strong corporate persona is more important than anything else you can do on the job," she explains.

Leadership does not equal management

Thus far, most of those on the receiving end of Trump's infamous mantra, "You're fired!"--especially the demeaning, energy-draining Kristin and the guitar-strumming, eccentric Danny--have lacked leadership skills, says Steve Carney, founder of Power of We Consulting and author of The Teamwork Chronicles. "There are all different schools, theories, and methods of managing people. Leadership and management are not the same thing."

And this is why Carney puts the street-smarts team at a disadvantage. "Many of these professionals tend to manage based on their personality rather than an objective set of principles and guidelines," he explains. "Many are authoritarian and don't collaborate very often. And although many of them can develop valuable skills based on the real world, they miss things like inspiration, motivation, being a team player, and being accountable for their own actions." He points out a telling Small Business Association statistic: For 70 percent of businesses that fail in their first eight years, poor management is cited as the main cause.

"Those with book smarts can offer learning and growth," says Carney. "They understand the importance of a business plan, marketing and sales skills, branding, organizational development, and laws for areas like hiring and human resource management." Without these book smarts, companies can get into real trouble.

However, corporate trainer and consultant Steve Waterhouse notes an additional challenge for Magna: Some people with impressive educational credentials can take an excessive pride in their own intellects, and this can sometimes hinder their brainstorming abilities. He gives this season's street-smart team the edge because, he says, they stop to ask questions to figure out what they don't know.

"The closer you get to your formal training, the less you think you need to explore alternate solutions," says Waterhouse. "The only time to get good ideas is before one has been formed--that's what's missing." Case in point: the ridiculous Dove commercials. "Had someone done a brainstorming exercise, they would have figured this one out," he says. "They skipped those steps, jumped into a conclusion, and no one voiced opposition strong enough to overcome it."

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Not really an either-or question

That's essentially why Dr. Ted Sun, executive coach, professor at the University of Phoenix, and author of Secrets of Biz Success, believes choosing between book smarts or street smarts is not so cut and dry. To become a better leader, Sun thinks, one must have a combination of both. It's for this reason that many are favoring Angie, a health-club franchise owner who turned a $40,000 investment into $1.5 million market value within three years.

"Knowing theories gives you a foundation to operate from," Dr. Sun explains. Yet he also emphasizes the importance of trial and error. "People with street smarts know how to test things, learn from experience, and can apply this knowledge in a fast-paced setting such as the boardroom."

Rolf Gruen, general manager of the Seattle office of Lee Hecht Harrison, a national leadership consulting firm, agrees that developing into a good leader is a mixed bag. Indeed, on The Apprentice the boardroom seems to be eliminating contestants lacking in one critical skill.

"Having the foundation of education is good. It helps with traits that you need for leadership--agility, and being able to self promote without selling your soul," says Gruen. Flexibility and adaptability, however, are qualities that cannot be taught, he adds, evidenced in Net Worth's early string of victories.

"They have the agility to risk more easily and with more confidence than you would find with book smarts." And Gruen is not basing this on the show, but rather on the professionals he counsels. "Those who tend to be more entrepreneurial are often not the ones with master's degrees," he says.

Don't have it all? Work at it

That's what Bonnie Russell, who never graduated college, exhibits day in and day out as founder of the legal publicity firm 1st-Pick.com. Her firm matches consumers with doctors, lawyers, and real estate brokers. Her advice? Don't get too wrapped up in being set upon one or the other--book smart or street smart--as better. "Both are important, but book smarts ought to get practical street experience, and street smarts ought to take a class. It shouldn't be black or white. It should be a kaleidoscope of options."

No matter which side you're rooting for, the reality of the reality TV situation we've seen week after week is this: "Society is structured in such a way that the business world places supreme importance on the value of a higher education," says Levit. Whoever is left standing in the boardroom, the fact remains that Trump and many like him at the helm of the nation's largest and most successful companies are college graduates with advanced degrees.

Does that mean if a Magna player wins this season, and is chosen to run one of The Donald's many companies, the real-life boardroom will be unattainable without an academic decree? According to Carney, there is hope long after the water cooler debates from this season's Apprentice simmer down--for both teams: "You need the learning and the drive to learn more, to have a dynamic approach to learning. Be passionate and excited about it."

 

[spunkyblonde]

hi guys scottrade.com has a great service from only $7;00 .how much does etrade cost ..???

 

[spunkyblonde]

Friday lunchtimes are the best example, because everyone is thinking of the weekend.
This is why I take Friday afternoons off, never trade on Friday afternoons.

Sometimes the first day after a major holiday is also a dead duck.

The day before Xmas Eve as well. There are many of these non trading days that can easily be pinpointed if you look carefully.[/QUOTE

yeah m8 i agree .. friday arvo can be a problem indeed

 

[spunkyblonde]

this is a great forum

 

[Trader333]

d998,

An interesting article and one that I think I mostly agree with even though I have an MBA myself. Out of all the people who I know, the ones who have become most financially successful havent got a single academic qualification between them. What they have all got in common is relationship building capabilities and the ability to see how a project can become profitable.



Paul

 

[spunkyblonde]

yes i agree too..the trend is your freind

 

[jimmy1jag]

d998,

I too found this an interesting article.

Early in my career I learned that developing a business is 20% technical and 80% tactical. So yes, you do need to know what the right thing to do is, but at the same time it is far far more important to do it the right way. However, I have never been in a situation yet where rocket science is the right solution. Although some business leaders may believe to the contrary, if you try to impose rocket science it can have fatal consequences. This is because the organisation all to often hasn't got the management basics in place and running properly. In order to effect (positive) organisational change, you have to understand what is required, get the basics in place, and use a combination of carrot and stick to start to get things to improve. In order for all this to happen, though, you have to use the "street smarts" to encourage and sometimes co-erce people to do the right thing.

So you do have to have the right level of education - and this doesn't have to come from Harvard or London Business School- but you must have a combination of humility, on the one side, and drive, commitment and confidence on the other to make it happen!

And although that last paragraph is very sweeping, it is also, in my view, what is required to be successful in trading.