alphadude
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I do agree; most of my models close out for the WE; but the long term ones have open positions for weeks. The sizes are quite small on those; so am not too worried.
Lord Flasheart
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Lord Flasheart
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my demo accounts taken a pasting again this month.I followed one guy whom was up1500 pips,now down 1500
alphadude
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my demo accounts taken a pasting again this month.I followed one guy whom was up1500 pips,now down 1500
lol; am up +93 pips on closed positions; and +108 pips on open positions. Stick to low drawdown SPs
question: does the historical equity curve (pips) includes open positions pips or not?
Lord Flasheart
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lol; am up +93 pips on closed positions; and +108 pips on open positions. Stick to low drawdown SPs
question: does the historical equity curve (pips) includes open positions pips or not?
I did stick to low dd providers,anyone less that 6 months trading record is likely to blow their accounts at anytime. The curve that is on display ti all includes open positions that are carried overnight,the one you see only shows closed positions. Its a real + for zulu to show the open liability where others dont
you talking about the unrealized PnL graph? it's a good measurement for a provider!
Shikamaroo
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I'll try to keep that in mind. thanks for the advice
Lord Flasheart
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you talking about the unrealized PnL graph? it's a good measurement for a provider!
more importantly for any potential follower. On etoro what you see is closed positions and they really focus on win% as being important. A lot of the guys have over 90% win rate because they just leave losing positions until they come good as it wont show too easily.
Lord Flasheart
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dont worry in the early stages as when you have 400 pips and you lose 200 thats a dd of 50%,but by the time you reach 1000 pips the 200 pips will become a dd of only 20%, which is why its hard to truly understand the relevance of this part of zulus method. It should really be shown as a dd from an account value.But hard to have the best of both worlds. Anyway im off to a wedding so have a great weekend(how can someone get married when England are playing
ooooohhh they do that on Zultutrade as well. but at least the system gives this big red sign saying 'reckless trading detected 100% winning ratio' so one knows before even check the trading history and follow.
Hi guys, After browsing on this thread I decided to give Zulutrade a go as a signal provider a few weeks ago. Since starting trading on it I have taken a detailed look at the performance pages to see who does well; perhaps I could learn some lessons.
It seems to me that the signal providers who are in control of the largest amounts of capital are those who adopt the strategies of running significant drawdowns, high trade success ratio, averaging losers,etc.
If you look you'll see that many of them have their previous accounts designated as bombs, meaning that they have a record of blowing up. The most current example is a guy called Forex Cruise Control who was managing at his height $35 million and ranked number 1 when he tried to hang onto losing short cable trades during May. I wouldn't like to know how many hundred of thousands of dollars were lost as he held his way to a 65% drawdown. He has 5 bombs next to his name already, if you follow trends you should be able to see the probability of what is more likely to happen next.
It struck me that the followers who pledge their capital to these signal providers actually in a very vulnerable place. Because they have almost real time access to what is going on in their account, they are subject to the exact same set of emotions and psychology that us traders fight every day to keep on top of. Except they are removed from the decision making process, which makes it even worse. This is compounded by the obvious reality that they have no ability to see what is going on in the mind of the trader who they are risking their money to follow.
Perpetually second guessing every move I'd imagine and pulling their hair out.
As is only right, they also have the ability to override trading activity in their accounts and so if they see something they don't agree with, they can actually close a trade early, put a different stop loss on it, open a hedge, etc so they are not even actually implementing the strategy of the signal provider at all. If you read the comments beneath performance pages you just see angst and desperation expressed as "why are you trading against the trend?", "I disabled you because you lost 3 trades in a row", "margin call ... lost $21 000", etc.
When reading these comments I am reminded in of the story of the dentist in the Nassim Taleb book - Nassim Taleb: On The Difference Between Noise And Information | Curated Alpha
The fact is that people will always be attracted to the really high success percentage providers with really smooth upward equity curves. The providers providing that type of service will do the best. But nature dictates that the more you try to smooth out the natural swings and eliminate volatility, the bigger the volatility is when you lose control. Look at the equity markets when there is QE and look what happens when it ends. Look at the efforts to control small forest fires which end up causing huge fires when they inevitably come. Equity curves are no different.
That is why the only real winner on the likes of Zulutrade will be the trader who realises this and says to hell with trading properly - aim for 99% success ratio, average down losers, open multiple positions, reckless risk v reward ratio, etc. He will garner many followers and tens of thousands of dollars of commission every month. Those followers will lose everything when he inevitably blows up. But they will come back to him again when he changes the name of his account and starts again from scratch. The cycle repeats, the bombs beside the performance pages are testament to that.
The responsible sustainable trader with a sensible risk v reward ratio, low drawdown and robust return on capital will be largely ignored. There is no demand for what they are providing, despite the fact that it is better product.
You can compare signal providers to dating girls. Girl (A) is super hot, model looks, stunning. You know she is a bit of a nightmare to be around though, and you know she has a history of being liberal with fidelity. You don't really have too much to talk about and she is far more interested in looking at herself in the mirror than talking to you. Girl (B) is not as pretty, but she is fun, you get on like a house on fire, you have lots to talk about, you know she will be faithful to the very end and worship the ground you walk on. Which do you go for?
You probably go for Girl (A) and hope you can work around the issues and things will be different with you.
Which equity curve do you go for? Equity curve (A) one that goes in a 45 degree straight line with no losses? You have a niggling doubt that it might be too good to be true though. Does is not go against all those trading sayings like never add to a loser? Or equity curve (B) that goes up and down but is trending up overall? Low drawdown, realistic success percentage, running winners cutting losers, strong risk v reward.
I'd hazard a guess to say, like the pretty girl, equity curve (A) will do pretty well.
Good trading
Nigel
It seems to me that the signal providers who are in control of the largest amounts of capital are those who adopt the strategies of running significant drawdowns, high trade success ratio, averaging losers,etc.
If you look you'll see that many of them have their previous accounts designated as bombs, meaning that they have a record of blowing up. The most current example is a guy called Forex Cruise Control who was managing at his height $35 million and ranked number 1 when he tried to hang onto losing short cable trades during May. I wouldn't like to know how many hundred of thousands of dollars were lost as he held his way to a 65% drawdown. He has 5 bombs next to his name already, if you follow trends you should be able to see the probability of what is more likely to happen next.
It struck me that the followers who pledge their capital to these signal providers actually in a very vulnerable place. Because they have almost real time access to what is going on in their account, they are subject to the exact same set of emotions and psychology that us traders fight every day to keep on top of. Except they are removed from the decision making process, which makes it even worse. This is compounded by the obvious reality that they have no ability to see what is going on in the mind of the trader who they are risking their money to follow.
Perpetually second guessing every move I'd imagine and pulling their hair out.
As is only right, they also have the ability to override trading activity in their accounts and so if they see something they don't agree with, they can actually close a trade early, put a different stop loss on it, open a hedge, etc so they are not even actually implementing the strategy of the signal provider at all. If you read the comments beneath performance pages you just see angst and desperation expressed as "why are you trading against the trend?", "I disabled you because you lost 3 trades in a row", "margin call ... lost $21 000", etc.
When reading these comments I am reminded in of the story of the dentist in the Nassim Taleb book - Nassim Taleb: On The Difference Between Noise And Information | Curated Alpha
The fact is that people will always be attracted to the really high success percentage providers with really smooth upward equity curves. The providers providing that type of service will do the best. But nature dictates that the more you try to smooth out the natural swings and eliminate volatility, the bigger the volatility is when you lose control. Look at the equity markets when there is QE and look what happens when it ends. Look at the efforts to control small forest fires which end up causing huge fires when they inevitably come. Equity curves are no different.
That is why the only real winner on the likes of Zulutrade will be the trader who realises this and says to hell with trading properly - aim for 99% success ratio, average down losers, open multiple positions, reckless risk v reward ratio, etc. He will garner many followers and tens of thousands of dollars of commission every month. Those followers will lose everything when he inevitably blows up. But they will come back to him again when he changes the name of his account and starts again from scratch. The cycle repeats, the bombs beside the performance pages are testament to that.
The responsible sustainable trader with a sensible risk v reward ratio, low drawdown and robust return on capital will be largely ignored. There is no demand for what they are providing, despite the fact that it is better product.
You can compare signal providers to dating girls. Girl (A) is super hot, model looks, stunning. You know she is a bit of a nightmare to be around though, and you know she has a history of being liberal with fidelity. You don't really have too much to talk about and she is far more interested in looking at herself in the mirror than talking to you. Girl (B) is not as pretty, but she is fun, you get on like a house on fire, you have lots to talk about, you know she will be faithful to the very end and worship the ground you walk on. Which do you go for?
You probably go for Girl (A) and hope you can work around the issues and things will be different with you.
Which equity curve do you go for? Equity curve (A) one that goes in a 45 degree straight line with no losses? You have a niggling doubt that it might be too good to be true though. Does is not go against all those trading sayings like never add to a loser? Or equity curve (B) that goes up and down but is trending up overall? Low drawdown, realistic success percentage, running winners cutting losers, strong risk v reward.
I'd hazard a guess to say, like the pretty girl, equity curve (A) will do pretty well.
Good trading
Nigel
Lord Flasheart
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at my age(47) and 10 years of marriage criterior and curves are not so important, just take anything that looks promising
Lord Flasheart
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now have my tradency account set up
alphadude
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