yes that is correct... 2020 i was very bearish USD post March 2020... as of the start of 2021.. my bias is USD dip buy again... been selling EURUSD up there at the start of the year but for now i trade more than stale risk... think it is too early to have stale USD longs... BUT i do NOT subscribe to the 2021 USD sell, i feel that is wrong. the Taper tantrum started a lot earlier than we did expect and as much as it got a bit quieter, i feel the taper tantrum will be with us most of the year, especially if we get another 1.9trln of stimulus on top of the 900 bio from Dec, while the FED has only had 1 trln of stimulus in their economic projection.. so FED is done in my view... and if i look at inflation expectations from the FED vs the ECB, i have no doubt where EURUSD will eventually head during 2021.. but as i said.. early 2021 maybe not yet the time to go mental.. but i am a USD dip buyer on balance for trading purposeI always try to trade EURUSD as priority then work way down to CHFJPY.
But I have been thinking about applying a macro analysis to select pair as well/Also select based on 3M option Vol (trading highest vol ccy's first) has worked well.
If I remember correctly you were forecasting the USD needed to fall and EUR rally to save the world during the dash for cash, that turned out to be correct. Its getting risky what with some of the stats on optimism in the equity mkts and short USD is consensus like never before. I may subscribe in the future as macro is key to the FX pairs that we trade.