Yearly Gains/Losses

[riwf]

Now that the trading year is nearly over, is anyone willing to put up for public scrutiny their gains or losses - in terms of points - over the year? It might be helpful to others, too, if everyone who does could analyse their wins or losses in terms of

1) Most important factor in winning / losing
2) If overall loser, what you would do differently next year.
3) If overall winner, what you would avoid next year.

Finally, should we rank the binary providers in terms of favourability? Together with any new betting combinations we would like to see in the New Year.

To get things rolling, here is my info:

Points made: 12,000
Points lost: 3,500
Total profit: 8,500

Most important factor: choosing the right trades - in my case FX ladders and FX Up/Down - and the right time to bet or lay.

Next year I am going to accept that when there isn't a favourable bet available on the FX ladders or Up/Down I will avoid placing bets on the FTSE, the Dow and the DAX just for the sake of placing a bet each day.

Next year I would like to see more ladders across a wider range of instruments. I know that IG has introduced them to the FTSE, but that still leaves the DJ and numerous others.

In conclusion, a profitable year. I look forward to an even better one next year. I think another two providers entered the market this year. Perhaps there will be more next year. And now that IG has purchased Hedge Street, perhaps there will be opportunities for us IG heads to expand our net.

Merry Christmas to all - if that's your thing. Otherwise, Happy Holidays. And put the time off to good use. Next year is going to be an economic roller-coaster. A chance for we binary beavers to make the most of the opportunities that are thrown up.

As we say in Scotland
Many a Mickle Maks a Muckle
Good luck for 2008
RIWF

 

[Baldwreck]

Hi riwf - year's not quite done yet though final result is unlikley to be very different - I do fixed odds so can't express results in terms of points - so this is the best I can do:

Return on "betting pot" - a fraction over 25% .- I should be happy with that but I don't think I am because - a) it follows two years of 50% + returns and b) if I had stopped for the year on 16th July the returns would have been 72%.

I placed 657 bets of which 388 won and 269 lost. My most profitable index was the Dax and the biggest loser the Nasdaq, and in Forex the most profitable pair was AUD/USD and the biggest loser was the USD/CHF.

What will I do differently for 2008 - not much really though I will consider greater diversifiction. At the moment there is only one supplier I can really use which is Betonmarkets though BetsforTraders is coming close.

I use an entirely mechanical system and there is no doubt that the system got confused as far as the impact of "sub-prime" on the stock indices was concerned. I trade a relatively long time-frame (10 working days) compared to the rest of the contributors to these Boards. Luckily a diversification in to FOREX in late August greatly helped the final result otherwise the profit would have been very slim if at all.

Thoroughly looking forward to 2008 - I regard the time spent now as my training for what I hope will be a full time occupation when I give up the day job in a few years time.

Best of luck to everyone for a successful 2008.

 

[tar]

for more replies

 

[Baldwreck]

for more replies

tar - how about you?

So far 2008:
January - v difficult - 21 winners 67 losers - down 18%.
Since then about evens - 81 winners 68 losers.

Looking for slow recovery - glad money management is robust!

 

[tar]

Account wiped out @ fixed odds and binaries , i had very good days but what almost hurts 5 mintues betting like lad-brokes and choiceodds looks like gambling !

 

[Baldwreck]

Account wiped out @ fixed odds and binaries , i had very good days but what almost hurts 5 mintues betting like lad-brokes and choiceodds looks like gambling !

Bad luck tar - 5 mins is just a gamble.

 

[donaldduke]

Intra day and daily binaries are all a gamble in these volatile markets.
Prices are just way to spikey. You get the odd day when the markets are predictable, but more often the markets are too wild.
At times like this the Binary Bet spread of between 4 and 10 percent is a huge disadvantage to overcome.
Not saying you cant make money, but its high pressure for realtively small net reward.

Im taking it easy at moment and not betting.. thats the biggest long term advantage i have over the house.

 

[tar]

I have noticed that voltality perfect for binaries ( reversal trades ) needs discpline and patience

 

[riwf]

I agree with DD. Too much volatility to assure winners at the moment.

My results so far.
Jan - March: +811
April so far: - 183
Profit for year so far: 628 points.

Worst results: GBP/USD and USD/CHF ladders.
Best results: FTSE and FX UP/DOWN ladders.

I'll continue trading, but with greater care in choosing which vehicles and closer attention to volatility of the Dollar and movement of the Dow.

Update at end of month.

Best of luck
Ron

 

[tar]

I agree with DD. Too much volatility to assure winners at the moment.

My results so far.
Jan - March: +811
April so far: - 183
Profit for year so far: 628 points.

Worst results: GBP/USD and USD/CHF ladders.
Best results: FTSE and FX UP/DOWN ladders.

I'll continue trading, but with greater care in choosing which vehicles and closer attention to volatility of the Dollar and movement of the Dow.

Update at end of month.

Best of luck
Ron

Do u have any experience at Betfair ( Ftse 100 ) ?

 

[riwf]

Do u have any experience at Betfair ( Ftse 100 ) ?

No. Not enough liquidity last time I looked.

 

[riwf]

LAST ENTRY
My results so far.
Jan - March: +811
April so far: -183
Profit for year so far: +628 points.

UPDATE
Total loss for April was -193 points. Total gain January - April was +618 points. Down -57 points on the same time last year.

RIWF

 

[Baldwreck]

Update - can't do points but
Jan -18%
Feb +10%
Mar -10%
Apr +7%
May +2%

Overall for year to date -11%

Hope/expect to claw that back soon.

 

[riwf]

Hi Baldwreck

If you're doing fixed-odd bets why can't you express your winnings/losses in points? If I buy a bet at 83 and it wins I've made 100 - 83 = 17 points (points could be times 1 pound up). Similarly, if i sell at 20 and win I've made 0 + 20 = 20 points. If I lost in both cases, I'd lose 83 and 20 points. At the end of the month I add up my wins and losses and come out with a figure for the month.

If we're on the same wave-length and talking about binary bets then you should be able to calculate the points won or lost. I find it easier than working on a % up or down of the capital I started with. It's easier to check like for like, too - so I can compare this month with the same month last year and see whether I'm up or down, and since I use the same strategy year after year can see the factors that determined my success or lack of it. The factors that influenced last month's are pretty clear - the fear factor in the markets. Yet the same factor has been driving oil prices up and I was able to bet on that - which I don't normally do, preferring to stick to FX - to minimise my losses overall.

Hope I'm not trying to teach my Gran to suck eggs!

Cheers
Ron

 

[Baldwreck]

Hi Baldwreck

If you're doing fixed-odd bets why can't you express your winnings/losses in points? If I buy a bet at 83 and it wins I've made 100 - 83 = 17 points (points could be times 1 pound up). Similarly, if i sell at 20 and win I've made 0 + 20 = 20 points. If I lost in both cases, I'd lose 83 and 20 points. At the end of the month I add up my wins and losses and come out with a figure for the month.

If we're on the same wave-length and talking about binary bets then you should be able to calculate the points won or lost. I find it easier than working on a % up or down of the capital I started with. It's easier to check like for like, too - so I can compare this month with the same month last year and see whether I'm up or down, and since I use the same strategy year after year can see the factors that determined my success or lack of it. The factors that influenced last month's are pretty clear - the fear factor in the markets. Yet the same factor has been driving oil prices up and I was able to bet on that - which I don't normally do, preferring to stick to FX - to minimise my losses overall.

Hope I'm not trying to teach my Gran to suck eggs!

Cheers
Ron

Ron - I'm not sure its that simple (I bet with Betonmarkets only)- I use a Kelly based risk management system which looks at the total exposure I have before calculating the amount it is reasonable to bet, as well as determining the amount to bet based on the expected probability on winning.

But if I had bet evenly with each bet to win £100 I can synthesize the results as follows.

Jan -2598
Feb +1567
March -1813
April +673
May +252

Personally I prefer %ages as for me it measures performance against size of betting pool.

Hope that helps.

 

[Baldwreck]

2008 Results

Hi riwf - year's not quite done yet though final result is unlikley to be very different - I do fixed odds so can't express results in terms of points - so this is the best I can do:

Return on "betting pot" - a fraction over 25% .- I should be happy with that but I don't think I am because - a) it follows two years of 50% + returns and b) if I had stopped for the year on 16th July the returns would have been 72%.

I placed 657 bets of which 388 won and 269 lost. My most profitable index was the Dax and the biggest loser the Nasdaq, and in Forex the most profitable pair was AUD/USD and the biggest loser was the USD/CHF.

What will I do differently for 2008 - not much really though I will consider greater diversifiction. At the moment there is only one supplier I can really use which is Betonmarkets though BetsforTraders is coming close.

I use an entirely mechanical system and there is no doubt that the system got confused as far as the impact of "sub-prime" on the stock indices was concerned. I trade a relatively long time-frame (10 working days) compared to the rest of the contributors to these Boards. Luckily a diversification in to FOREX in late August greatly helped the final result otherwise the profit would have been very slim if at all.

Thoroughly looking forward to 2008 - I regard the time spent now as my training for what I hope will be a full time occupation when I give up the day job in a few years time.

Best of luck to everyone for a successful 2008.

Well it's not pretty - but this is what 2008 looked like - and successful it was not!

After a dreadful start in January (reported in an earlier post) things started to stabalise that is until the dollar went ballistic.

The net result for the year is 347 winners but 353 losers and I have lost about 25% of my "bank" nearly all on forex - worst performer was USD/GBP. Index bets were about breakeven with the best being the Swiss Market and the worst Nasdaq.

2009 brings renewed hope: I have spent quite a lot of time refining the system to cope with what has been unprecedented volatility in the forex market - interestingly the indices performed OK even in this market because this part of the system has much older records (mid 1980's) on which to rely than Forex for which I only have records going back to 2000.

I hope most survived 2008 and perhaps many prospered - let us know.

Good luck to everyone in 2009.

 

[riwf]

Pretty poor year, I'm afraid. A profit of only 906 points, compared with 8,500 last year. However, I'd rather be up than down. I only did currency ladders now and used the same old system, buying or selling a couple of hours before close and following the market to make my choice. It's worked for nearly two years now so I don't see myself making any changes. I haven't done any trading for the last couple of months - been having a break - and don't think I'll resume until the spring. With any luck, by then we'll know which way the wind is blowing (though it doesn't take a weatherman to know that, as Bob D. said).

I'm very pessimistic about the prospects for 2009. I was one of those who saw which way we were headed nearly three years ago. Though - what a fool! - I didn't wager any money on it. But, then, would anyone have taken a bet that bank shares would fall so far?

Put a bet on them rising. Bankers are the only people who are going to do well out of what is coming, because Gordon loves them so much - so much, in fact, that he's taken a grand from every man, woman, and child in the country and handed it to them.

So what am I looking forward to in the coming year? My share of the helicopter cash, when it comes.

Good luck to all,
Ron F.

 

[Baldwreck]

Well, and now the end of 2009 so a review is in order. I stayed out of the markets for most of the year simply because my business (property) was stressful and I had to stay wholly focused on that. I hope to re-enter the markets shortly. Any updates from others would be welcome. Good luck to all for a successful 2010.