when not to trade

[the pro]

Hi Guys

I am putting together a spreadsheet for Spread betting purposes and it is full of pop-up warnings.

one warning I am working on concerns when to trade or not in light of upcoming results etc.

i have come up with the following, that tells me not to trade when -

An interim dividend is being paid in the next 30 days
A final dividend is being paid in the next 30 days
Half yearly results have been announced in the last 4 days (takes into account of week-ends)
Half yearly results are to be announced in the next 30 days
Full year results have been announced in the last 4 days
Full year results are to be announced in the next 30 days


What do you spread betting experts think, over the top or would you add to it.

Constructive replies would be greatly appreciated

 

[toknees]

Hi Guys

I am putting together a spreadsheet for Spread betting purposes and it is full of pop-up warnings.

one warning I am working on concerns when to trade or not in light of upcoming results etc.

i have come up with the following, that tells me not to trade when -

An interim dividend is being paid in the next 30 days
A final dividend is being paid in the next 30 days
Half yearly results have been announced in the last 4 days (takes into account of week-ends)
Half yearly results are to be announced in the next 30 days
Full year results have been announced in the last 4 days
Full year results are to be announced in the next 30 days


What do you spread betting experts think, over the top or would you add to it.

Constructive replies would be greatly appreciated

I can understand not wanting to be near an earnings report, but why are you avoiding dividends?

 

[the pro]

I can understand not wanting to be near an earnings report, but why are you avoiding dividends?

Hi Toknees

Sorry, didn't realise you had replied to both questions. This was just a list of the top of my head, I think we ahve discussed the dividend in the other reply.

Are thare any particular days you avoid?

Thanks again, for your helpful advice.

 

[toknees]

I'll avoid entering if an earnings report is imminent (like less than a week away).

It sounds like a good idea though, after I've done my technical analysis, my next step is to check all the dates to see if they will affect my entry in any way, and this would save time.

Quite often though, the make or break isn't until I've looked at the spreads offered. It can be really frustrating to find a setup you really like the look of with a nice risk/reward only to find that it'll take half your position size just to enter!

 

[the pro]

I'll avoid entering if an earnings report is imminent (like less than a week away).

It sounds like a good idea though, after I've done my technical analysis, my next step is to check all the dates to see if they will affect my entry in any way, and this would save time.

Quite often though, the make or break isn't until I've looked at the spreads offered. It can be really frustrating to find a setup you really like the look of with a nice risk/reward only to find that it'll take half your position size just to enter!

Hi Toknees

It's good to talk to you. Lots to learn, i'm just starting out on my spreadbetting journey, so it's nice to chat with someone, who's been there and got the T shirt.
Taking on board what you say, it seems my methodology, in regard to stops and money management is similar.

Your intraday moves scare me a little, but I understand where you are coming from, again it's all about risk and reward - Do you spend much time trading?

 

[barjon]

....................Quite often though, the make or break isn't until I've looked at the spreads offered. It can be really frustrating to find a setup you really like the look of with a nice risk/reward only to find that it'll take half your position size just to enter!..............

Aye, particularly in the first few minutes of the day when they can be ridiculous until things have settled down.

 

[the pro]

Aye, particularly in the first few minutes of the day when they can be ridiculous until things have settled down.

Hi Barjon

Yep! Got that one in my notes, not looking to place a trade until after the first hour, each limit order will only be GFD

Thanks, much appreciated

 

[barjon]

Hi Barjon

Yep! Got that one in my notes, not looking to place a trade until after the first hour, each limit order will only be GFD

Thanks, much appreciated

Affects stops, too, don't forget. Mid price may not move, but you can still get stopped out by the early morning widened spreads if your stop is close by.

 

[the pro]

Affects stops, too, don't forget. Mid price may not move, but you can still get stopped out by the early morning widened spreads if your stop is close by.

Hi Barjon

It's never easy is it? So how do you play this one, it's hard enough already to beat the game, looks like you also have jump hurdles and go through hoops.

All the stuff the text books don't tell you.

It's good to chat with you.

 

[barjon]

Hi Barjon

It's never easy is it? So how do you play this one, it's hard enough already to beat the game, looks like you also have jump hurdles and go through hoops.

All the stuff the text books don't tell you.

It's good to chat with you.

I take my stop off before the close and put it back on again after the opening high jinks have settled down. If there's an adverse opening gap my stop would have been slipped to the opening price anyway.

 

[the pro]

I take my stop off before the close and put it back on again after the opening high jinks have settled down. If there's an adverse opening gap my stop would have been slipped to the opening price anyway.

Makes sense, what a palava, though. Can you do this with guaranteed stops as well or are these far enough back, because I think these have to be wider don't they.

Let me know if, i'm asking too many questions, it's good to learn from a Pro.

Thanks

Phil

 

[toknees]

Still working on the t-shirt!

I've learned to be realistic with my position size - and my system expectation. I expect to have losers. Some will be bad losers (XRX is a half decent example at 1.5x). In my backtests I've managed to achieve as much as a 3x initial position size loss. But I am not focused on making profit on every trade - nobody can achieve a 100% hit rate, and I would be careful about any kind of system that claims to have anything like a 75% hit rate. I am comfortable with my system as I know that I will still most likely make a profit even if 65-70% of my trades are losers. I still strive to pick winners, but once you're in, you can't control the market and it will move against you at times. If you are prepared for it and you know what to expect (ie. plenty of losers and some large losers) they won't be painful as you also know that you expect winners and some large winners which will more than cover your losses. If your system lets the winners run, sure you might have to lose 3x your initial position on a trade, but there might well be a winning trade that gives you 15x your initial position size - tell me then how fussed you are about the big loss?

With all this in mind, the most difficult bit is sticking to your own rules. And also, the nature of letting winners run and cutting losers means that the negative cash flow needs to start before the positive cash flow can come in.

Good luck.

 

[barjon]

Makes sense, what a palava, though. Can you do this with guaranteed stops as well or are these far enough back, because I think these have to be wider don't they.

Let me know if, i'm asking too many questions, it's good to learn from a Pro.

Thanks

Phil

Pro? That'll cause a laugh. Haven't got enough balls for that!!

You can pay for guaranteed stop, but it probably just guarantees you'll lose it since you'd probably want to be long gone by the time it's hit. These SB guys aren't daft and they won't give you much that might work to your advantage.

 

[toknees]

If you were seriously considering putting a lot of capital to work, it may be worth considering adding the costs of guaranteed stops only to keep you safe in the event of a 1987 style crash. At present, if something like that we're to happen, I would be in a lot of pain but would be a long way from bankrupt. The more of your capital you are putting at risk, the more important it is to ensure you have planned for the worst case scenario and guaranteed stops are good for that - not much help for day to day trades though.

 

[the pro]

If you were seriously considering putting a lot of capital to work, it may be worth considering adding the costs of guaranteed stops only to keep you safe in the event of a 1987 style crash. At present, if something like that we're to happen, I would be in a lot of pain but would be a long way from bankrupt. The more of your capital you are putting at risk, the more important it is to ensure you have planned for the worst case scenario and guaranteed stops are good for that - not much help for day to day trades though.

Hi Toknees

Thanks for all your feedback. You and Barjon, have offered some great advice. I could sit here and ask questions all afternoon, but I am sure you have got better things to do. It's nice to check in with guys like yourself, would be nice to chat one to one sometime.

Thanks again, better get on and thank Barjon as well.

Good luck with your trading

 

[the pro]

Pro? That'll cause a laugh. Haven't got enough balls for that!!

You can pay for guaranteed stop, but it probably just guarantees you'll lose it since you'd probably want to be long gone by the time it's hit. These SB guys aren't daft and they won't give you much that might work to your advantage.

Hi Barjon

Again, thanks for all your feedback. As I said to Toknees, you have both offered some great advice. It's been nice to chat, a one to one sometime. actually can't see that happening, looking at the amount of posts you've had, it seems like you are a very busy man

Thanks again

Good luck

 

[toknees]

You're welcome - I've still got a lot to learn myself and it's great that we can all help each other!

Keep up your research and development and keep asking questions and you'll do great.

 

[the pro]

You're welcome - I've still got a lot to learn myself and it's great that we can all help each other!

Keep up your research and development and keep asking questions and you'll do great.

Thanks again for all your help, i don't tend to use forums much, so I'll have to track you down.

Take care, good trading.