Why the hurry for the big bucks...?

[meanreversion]

Tell me guys, why wouldn't you believe that a system that clearly makes 300 pips on one particular day wouldn't average at least 50? Are your indicators giving you 300 pip days, ever? I don't think they can be.

Trader Q, my main system made 25 pct in May (it's more common to think about percentage return on equity than pips/day, but no biggy). So presumably I'm averaging at least... hmmm... 15 pct a month?

Your line of reasoning is specious.. actually it's bogus.. how can you possibly extrapolate my system's returns when you know nothing about how it works? Likewise, how can we do the same with yours?

Stop being daft..

spe·cious/ˈspēSHəs/Adjective
1. Superficially plausible, but actually wrong: "a specious argument".
2. Misleading in appearance, esp. misleadingly attractive: "a specious appearance of novelty".

 

[gooseman]

Yes, people would love to know my exact methodology, but like most people, I wasn't born yesterday.

i'm not disbelieveing you, I'm simply asking why if this is returning a minimum of 50 ticks per day with no net drawdown you are not leveraging as much as you can with the compounded account. Surely this system of yours is scalable from £10 per tick to £100/1000, particularly if you take it DMA.

 

[Trader Q]

Gooseman: I have NEVER said it is not scaleable, nor have I implied at any time that the 'bet' size wouldn't increase with the increase in overall winnings.
Also, I don't think I ever stated that it wins every single day, but the days it loses are few.

MeanReversion: OK, I accept there is no reason to believe me. Whatever!! By the same token, I laid down the gauntlet with "Are your indicators giving you a 300 pip days, ever" and none of the previous 'shouters' have come back with a 'yes'. Why you thought I was trying to extrapolate your system's returns is beyond me, even as part of your argument against me. I was merely making a statement of fact. If you or anyone else cares to disbelieve me, then so be it. Am I bovvered?

 

[leonarda]

Gooseman: I have NEVER said it is not scaleable, nor have I implied at any time that the 'bet' size wouldn't increase with the increase in overall winnings.
Also, I don't think I ever stated that it wins every single day, but the days it loses are few.

MeanReversion: OK, I accept there is no reason to believe me. Whatever!! By the same token, I laid down the gauntlet with "Are your indicators giving you a 300 pip days, ever" and none of the previous 'shouters' have come back with a 'yes'. Why you thought I was trying to extrapolate your system's returns is beyond me, even as part of your argument against me. I was merely making a statement of fact. If you or anyone else cares to disbelieve me, then so be it. Am I bovvered?

I believe you OK, and end of story since we're not getting anything useful from this conversation...!

What we've gathered so far on this thread is that those "hurry for big bucks guys" are destined for doom...but it's still possible to make a very decent return with small risk and compounding. And some people do better than others...

 

[Trader Q]

Just to let you know. It's yielded just over 100 pips so far today (hour and a quarter trading time).

 

[cristiano]

I think it depends a lot on your starting point. i.e. you can make big bucks with low risk if you have a big enough account. There seem to be plenty of people who expect to make lots of money quickly without a large account, which is exactly what leads to their destined doom as you say.

I don't have a large enough account to make a living from without risking it all, so therefore, I'm gonna wait - and hopefully improve along the way.

Everyone says repeatedly that discipline is the key - if you're working with a small account and making small returns, being disciplined ain't easy, which I guess is why so many people blow up so quickly. Just my point of view, but I can see why so many people risk too much and crash and burn.

 

[Trader Q]

I stand by my statement. IF you can make 50 pips a day (obviously difficult for some) you can, with compounding/ramping up, become a very rich person. It may take you a year or two, but it can be done.

Is that a slow or fast bucks scenario?

 

[leonarda]

Just to let you know. It's yielded just over 100 pips so far today (hour and a quarter trading time).

ok ok, no need to brag...!

 

[cristiano]

Just to let you know. It's yielded just over 100 pips so far today (hour and a quarter trading time).

By the way, as one newbie on this forum to another - don't take stuff so personally when people challenge some of your statements. People do it for the benefit of everyone else, not because they just decided they don't like you.

If you say you have a system that never fails to make you millions of pips a year, expect someone to push you a bit on it. They aren't asking you to give a detailed breakdown of your system, they're asking you to back up yer claims - they don't have much value otherwise. And it detracts from the thread's question.
Chris

 

[Trader Q]

Not bragging, just stating a fact (at that time). If I was bragging I would have blown a few raspberries too.

Which begs the question. IF you make 50 pips/100pips/150 pips, or whatever your target number is, would you bank and get out at that point, or stay for the ride (that might involve losing it all)?
There's a lot to be said for having a target and getting out once you've reached it, as IF you can reach it on a consistent basis, your risk is lessened.

 

[leonarda]

By the way, as one newbie on this forum to another - don't take stuff so personally when people challenge some of your statements. People do it for the benefit of everyone else, not because they just decided they don't like you.

If you say you have a system that never fails to make you millions of pips a year, expect someone to push you a bit on it. They aren't asking you to give a detailed breakdown of your system, they're asking you to back up yer claims - they don't have much value otherwise. And it detracts from the thread's question.
Chris

exactly, well said.

 

[Trader Q]

I'm afraid I take it personally when someone calls me bogus or doubts my integrity. I will not be bullied, either.

So, one day's chart with clear evidence of a 300 pip day isn't enough to even start things off???

I get the impression that if I ever met any of the guys on here in person, I'd have to have my passport with me and a DNA match as proof of who I am. Talk about mis-trustful. Yikes!!! (said tongue in cheek, but as they say, 'many a true word....'.

 

[Shikamaroo]

What we've gathered so far on this thread is that those "hurry for big bucks guys" are destined for doom...but it's still possible to make a very decent return with small risk and compounding. And some people do better than others...

how big a risk per trade and trade size are we talking when you refer to the "hurry for big bucks guys?

I ask because in my view if you have a simple scalping strat with 5 to 10 trades per day with a 1:1 risk reward you will in all likelihood survive and be able to make big bucks even at a high risk of 5% per trade.

Once you have made big bucks your goals will switch to preserving capital so you ramp down risk per trade.

 

[leonarda]

how big a risk per trade and trade size are we talking when you refer to the "hurry for big bucks guys?

I ask because in my view if you have a simple scalping strat with 5 to 10 trades per day with a 1:1 risk reward you will in all likelihood survive and be able to make big bucks even at a high risk of 5% per trade.

Once you have made big bucks your goals will switch to preserving capital so you ramp down risk per trade.

well some of the guys on this forum were risking 30%+ per trade, ie.wiping out in general!!

 

[gooseman]

I stand by my statement. IF you can make 50 pips a day (obviously difficult for some) you can, with compounding/ramping up, become a very rich person. It may take you a year or two, but it can be done.

i'll stress again that i'm not doubting you or criticising. I am asking why if you make 50+ ticks per day you are not already a millionaire. maybe you are. who knows. basically my issue is surrounding scalability and how much you are willing to risk per trade,.

far be it from me to criticise how others trade. i might do it internally and compare to my trading performance but each to their own. what works for ou might not for me.

obviously there are some pretty basic do's and don't's but you crack on mate and best of luck to you.

 

[Trader Q]

"well some of the guys on this forum were risking 30%+ per trade, ie.wiping out in general"!!

Were they Japanese ex-airmen of a certain age (who obviously failed miserably at that too)???

 

[cristiano]

i'm not disbelieveing you, I'm simply asking why if this is returning a minimum of 50 ticks per day with no net drawdown you are not leveraging as much as you can with the compounded account. Surely this system of yours is scalable from £10 per tick to £100/1000, particularly if you take it DMA.

When you're calculating risk, is it something that is continually being adjusted based on most recent trades? I guess as your trading becomes better your risk decreases based on the fact that your return on amount risked will improve.

Do you think the aim should be to scale up to your maximum level of acceptable risk, or aim to reduce risk? I ask as this will help me understand better how long it might take to reach my account size objective.

 

[Trader Q]

Gooseman: I'd only risk what any other sane person would risk. My basic premise is 50% of profits go back in, 50% get taken out and are sacrosanct.

As I wrote before, the risk becomes less, the more you make. With a start of maybe £5K you may have to risk slightly more per trade in order to get the momentum rolling, but never more than 5% absolute tops. If you've made 100 K and have £50K trading money, then trading £50/pip isn't such a big deal. Likewise if you have a cool £1M trading money, £500 a pip would make very good returns and risk less as a percentage. As someone previously wrote it's all about protection of capital once you've made what you consider to be enough.

Consider it another way. If you've made your £100K, £500K, £1M or whatever, how much would you like to make as an income? My guess is that this figure will go up the more you have, BUT it won't necesarily go up as a strict multiple. Who would really NEED say, £500K a year once they'd made a million? If they did, it's a sure sign they'd be flat broke in double-quick time.

 

[meanreversion]

I'm afraid I take it personally when someone calls me bogus or doubts my integrity. I will not be bullied, either.

So, one day's chart with clear evidence of a 300 pip day isn't enough to even start things off???

I get the impression that if I ever met any of the guys on here in person, I'd have to have my passport with me and a DNA match as proof of who I am. Talk about mis-trustful. Yikes!!! (said tongue in cheek, but as they say, 'many a true word....'.

Because you make 300 pips on one solitary day means precisely zero in the long run, I'm afraid. This is not to insult you, it's just a fact. If I throw two heads in a row, does this mean I'm always going to throw heads? Think about it.

If you can backtest your system and it works over the last five years, then you have something good (probably).

 

[meanreversion]

Can you translate your pip/day into percentage return on equity/year? It's a more meaningful number. Along with your expected max drawdown.