Why is the rouble in trouble?

FrieFrench

Junior member
42 0
The rouble smashed through resistance to an all-time low of 65.5 to the dollar, falling a jaw-dropping 11%, in a crescendo of selling on Monday, as oil prices continued to slide and markets braced for a likely default in Ukraine.

The Russian currency has lost half its value since President Vladimir Putin first sent forces into Ukraine, setting off a chain of events that the Kremlin can no longer control.

In the bleakest official forecast yet from Moscow, the Russian central bank warned that the country could see a 4.5 per cent to 4.7 per cent contraction in GDP next year if oil prices remained at $60 a barrel.

Via Why is the rouble in trouble?
 

lloydbee

Well-known member
275 17
ummm, because corrupt western officials are busy indulging in financial warfare tactics upon the Russian Federation because that way they can mask it or cover it up through the use of their just as corrupt puppet media rather than heading to Russia with a physical attack?

My guess :innocent:
 
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gerryg

Established member
900 6
The rouble smashed through resistance to an all-time low of 65.5 to the dollar, falling a jaw-dropping 11%, in a crescendo of selling on Monday, as oil prices continued to slide and markets braced for a likely default in Ukraine.

The Russian currency has lost half its value since President Vladimir Putin first sent forces into Ukraine, setting off a chain of events that the Kremlin can no longer control.

In the bleakest official forecast yet from Moscow, the Russian central bank warned that the country could see a 4.5 per cent to 4.7 per cent contraction in GDP next year if oil prices remained at $60 a barrel.

Via Why is the rouble in trouble?


Russian economy is extremely weak, corrupt, oil-dependable so don't see anything strange in crisis looming large so rapidly..:LOL: Just benefited on recent ruble slump with a couple of short-term bull USD/RUB trades. Spread on HF was good, but recently their CBR has restricting liquidity by lifting up loan rate, so now there is no fish left to bail out..
 

billyjean

Active member
120 5
Russian economy is extremely weak, corrupt, oil-dependable so don't see anything strange in crisis looming large so rapidly..:LOL: Just benefited on recent ruble slump with a couple of short-term bull USD/RUB trades. Spread on HF was good, but recently their CBR has restricting liquidity by lifting up loan rate, so now there is no fish left to bail out..

the ruble price keep falling, and seem everyone here happy with that , but seem few brokers pull out usdrub pair and not anymore available for trade. just got some rumors spread there's brokers' client who receive an email said the usdrub are not available in their platform, others made a 'special' rule by shrink the leverage for usdrub pair only, i just need this clarify did anyone here got some those kind of email from their current brokers, since i dont had any such annoucnment from armada markets or any brokers account i'm with, everything goes normal, just curious this sudden pull out are truly exist, a copy pasted email contain this issue would be good, just curious.
 

fxmade2trade

Active member
229 6
Russian economy is extremely weak, corrupt, oil-dependable so don't see anything strange in crisis looming large so rapidly..:LOL: Just benefited on recent ruble slump with a couple of short-term bull USD/RUB trades. Spread on HF was good, but recently their CBR has restricting liquidity by lifting up loan rate, so now there is no fish left to bail out..

It is all about gas and oil that accounts for approximately 2/3 of Russia's exports and half of federal budget revenues. The U.S. is forcing the price down to destroy Russia's economy as it is no longer dealing in petrodollars and will have to pay back high yield loans in USD. Making manufactures unable to produce in Russia if they did like China the Russian economy would grow at over 5% and we know that. We are in an economic war with Russia, and Iran soon China.The U.S. did this to Japan in 1941 and declared war by imposing an oil embargo.
Russia’s debt totals 13.4% of its GDP. Its budget deficit in relation to GDP is only 0.5%. The US GDP from lets say from 2013 $16.8 trillion (now much more) US budget deficit totals 4% of GDP, versus 0.5% for Russia. Who's economy is weak? Russian economy is more soundly financed than America’s. Russia and china have been stockpiling gold even when saving the Ruble Putin was and is spending billions on gold. No crisis? Just currency wars
 

Pat494

Legendary member
14,564 1,549
The U.S. did this to Japan in 1941 and declared war by imposing an oil embargo.

I think you will find that the US declared war on Japan because they did a sneaky attack on the US Pacific fleet at Pearl Harbour.

The trooble with the rooble is Russia's President.
Eastern Ukraine was given by Kruschev to Ukraine. Nobody knows quite why but there it was until recently. There was an overwhelming democratic vote to go back to Russia. If Putin was a cleverer man he would have played it differently and got it back peacefully. As it is there may be the embers to start WW3 quite unnecessarily. Russia is the biggest country geographically and doesn't need The Crimea, except it's Black Sea fleet is there.
Putin harps back to the days of Imperialism ( long forgotten anywhere else ) to further enlarge an already huge country.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,171 1,239
It is all about gas and oil that accounts for approximately 2/3 of Russia's exports and half of federal budget revenues. The U.S. is forcing the price down to destroy Russia's economy as it is no longer dealing in petrodollars and will have to pay back high yield loans in USD. Making manufactures unable to produce in Russia if they did like China the Russian economy would grow at over 5% and we know that. We are in an economic war with Russia, and Iran soon China.The U.S. did this to Japan in 1941 and declared war by imposing an oil embargo.
Russia’s debt totals 13.4% of its GDP. Its budget deficit in relation to GDP is only 0.5%. The US GDP from lets say from 2013 $16.8 trillion (now much more) US budget deficit totals 4% of GDP, versus 0.5% for Russia. Who's economy is weak? Russian economy is more soundly financed than America’s. Russia and china have been stockpiling gold even when saving the Ruble Putin was and is spending billions on gold. No crisis? Just currency wars


Interesting. Had to read up on diplomatic background to the Pacific War, interesting.

Fully agree that countries are at war on an economic level - US with Russia, yes, but also UK with Germany. These are in fact matters of life and death but only rarely emerge into armed hostilities, though that doesn't make currency wars less mortally important. If we can't afford power, healthcare and imported food, are not some of our people going to die?
 

Pat494

Legendary member
14,564 1,549
Interesting. Had to read up on diplomatic background to the Pacific War, interesting.

Fully agree that countries are at war on an economic level - US with Russia, yes, but also UK with Germany. These are in fact matters of life and death but only rarely emerge into armed hostilities, though that doesn't make currency wars less mortally important. If we can't afford power, healthcare and imported food, are not some of our people going to die?

Unfortunately the leaders of countries have to have one eye on their own people and many decisions are made with that uppermost in mind. Coupled with the fact of nationalist sabre rattling goes down well with the home electorate/people and a natural human stubbornness. The latter is seen as strength while sometimes it can be foolhardy. Putin can't back down now without looking weak and foolish starting what he couldn't finish . So Merkal/Hollande would be wise to give him a face saving way out to de-escalate a possible major conflict.

To understand Russian foreign policy mentality then read up on Muscarova - their art of covert war.
 

Atilla

Legendary member
19,460 2,879
Unfortunately the leaders of countries have to have one eye on their own people and many decisions are made with that uppermost in mind. Coupled with the fact of nationalist sabre rattling goes down well with the home electorate/people and a natural human stubbornness. The latter is seen as strength while sometimes it can be foolhardy. Putin can't back down now without looking weak and foolish starting what he couldn't finish . So Merkal/Hollande would be wise to give him a face saving way out to de-escalate a possible major conflict.

To understand Russian foreign policy mentality then read up on Muscarova - their art of covert war.

Didn't all this fiasco start with Ukraine wanting to be part of eu?

Similar to the eu accepting the Croats and thus braking up the old Yugoslavia, kicking off the last balkans war.
 

Splitlink

Legendary member
10,850 1,233
I think you will find that the US declared war on Japan because they did a sneaky attack on the US Pacific fleet at Pearl Harbour.

The trooble with the rooble is Russia's President.
Eastern Ukraine was given by Kruschev to Ukraine. Nobody knows quite why but there it was until recently. There was an overwhelming democratic vote to go back to Russia. If Putin was a cleverer man he would have played it differently and got it back peacefully. As it is there may be the embers to start WW3 quite unnecessarily. Russia is the biggest country geographically and doesn't need The Crimea, except it's Black Sea fleet is there.
Putin harps back to the days of Imperialism ( long forgotten anywhere else ) to further enlarge an already huge country.

I'm not condoning Pearl Harbour but the US placed sanctions on Japan before that. Japan was empire building and was an ally of the Axis. They had it coming but they considered that a treacherous attack on the US fleet was the only chance they had of getting the upper hand of the Americans. They seriously underestimated the Yanks- to our good fortune.

Isn't Putin ex-KGB? The Russian democratic movement made a serious error in allowing him into power. I'll have to read up on how that happened. There is,also, a strong sector of Russian politics that keeps allowing him back in.
 

Pat494

Legendary member
14,564 1,549
Didn't all this fiasco start with Ukraine wanting to be part of eu?

.

The west bit wanted to be part of the EU and the eastern bit to be part of Russia as confirmed by a big majority vote as far as I know. The vote is ignored by the West even though they are mostly Russian speakers.

The obvious solution might be to let the eastern bit be an autonomous area. Really not worth fighting over imho
 
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Atilla

Legendary member
19,460 2,879
I'm not condoning Pearl Harbour but the US placed sanctions on Japan before that. Japan was empire building and was an ally of the Axis. They had it coming but they considered that a treacherous attack on the US fleet was the only chance they had of getting the upper hand of the Americans. They seriously underestimated the Yanks- to our good fortune.

Isn't Putin ex-KGB? The Russian democratic movement made a serious error in allowing him into power. I'll have to read up on how that happened. There is,also, a strong sector of Russian politics that keeps allowing him back in.


Boris Yeltsin was a fat alcholic slob who didn't have a clue what was happening to Russia. The old guard rescued Russia from theft by democracky imo.
 
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Pat494

Legendary member
14,564 1,549
Boris Yeltsin was a fat alcholic slob who didn't have a clue what was happening to Russia imo. The old guard rescued Russia from theft by democracky imo.

Putin has stopped the probable break up of Russia after Yeltsin but gone on to having delusions of old imperial Russia expanding in every direction. As if they aren't plenty big enough already.
 

VeerTrade

Junior member
47 1
The main source of the problem can be found in the 40% drop in global oil prices since the summer not helped with Western sanctions imposed in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

For me the poor economic situation is also the result of a lack of inward investment towards opportunities that exist in our modern times. Putin during his time in charge has not really attempted to modernise Russia, the country still remains massively dependent on oil and gas exports, exactly how it was in Soviet times. Putin has failed to bring the Russian economy into the modern era which we see is so much centred around technology and innovation.
 
 
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