Why do so few succeed?

[JTrader]

Unsucessful traders will eventualy desist when the pot has gone or their years of losses cause them eventualy to give up. By then they have probably lost in the order of a few £ thousands or £ tens of thousands.

I would not like to find myself in this position, and perhaps have to explain this situation when I had to go and find myself a proper job. This fear alone has proved adequate motivation for me so far, to make sure that I know what I am doing.

In such spiralling circumstances it's easy to see how a person may get deeper into debt and become more and more desperate, before admitting that it is time to stop trading, if they cannot do so profitably.

 

[dbphoenix]

I thought it was more to do with trying to figure out what the above-average traders think the average trader thinks the average trader thinks the average trader will do? And then doing the opposite?

Don Luskin wrote this some time back. You may get a kick out of it:

In 1936, British economist John Maynard Keynes gave the best description of the stock market I've ever heard. He said stock market investors are like judges in a beauty contest. But the idea of this beauty contest is not to pick the prettiest girl, but rather to pick the girl that all other judges will think is the prettiest.

This simple metaphor is profound because it reveals the truth: For all of our study of the economy and companies, it is subjective perception -- not objective reality -- that sets stock prices.

And it's perplexing because, as Keynes pointed out, all of the judges are fully aware of the true nature of the contest and act accordingly. Each judge knows that he's a player in an fabulously complex game of psych and double-psych, an infinite regress of figuring out what the other guy is thinking you're thinking he's thinking you're thinking he's thinking, and so on and so on ...

Which is why I eventually came to trade by price. But all that's in other threads in another forum.

 

[SOCRATES]

My apologies. I missed the post which you're quoting. And apparently you do not want to walk an abstract path, though many are dragged onto one on message boards since they tend to focus on the philosophical and the abstract rather than the concrete, specific, and useful. And you brought it back to earth easily because you know what you want and are content with what you have. And to hell with anybody who isn't willing to allow you that contentment.

But wanting to understand more about trader behavior does not diminish the success you enjoy. You simply want to enhance what you have. That doesn't make you unsuccessful. It makes you curious.

The "something", however, is not abstract or ethereal. Anyone who wants to understand it can do so if they're willing to go through the process. Which takes us back to my group and the journalling process, which is between the two of us and something I won't get into here since all of that is private. I will say here, however, that if you take a mechanical view and regard the market as a "thing" rather than an amalgam of and manifestation of trader behavior, then the finer and not-so-finer points of price movement will likely be difficult for you to understand.

All of which can easily descend into yet another abstract discussion of What Is A Market blah blah, none of which is necessary or perhaps even helpful. And you already know what I think about all of this, and so does anyone else who's read even part of the threads I link under my name.

So, either forget about the elusive Something and be happy with what you've got and what you're doing, or roll up your sleeves and get back to the work you began last year (or so). There's no intrinsic value to one or the other. You don't have to be a chicken to appreciate an egg.

After having read this twice, all I can say is "Phew ! "..."What relief !"...

 

[SOCRATES]

Don Luskin wrote this some time back. You may get a kick out of it:

In 1936, British economist John Maynard Keynes gave the best description of the stock market I've ever heard. He said stock market investors are like judges in a beauty contest. But the idea of this beauty contest is not to pick the prettiest girl, but rather to pick the girl that all other judges will think is the prettiest.

This simple metaphor is profound because it reveals the truth: For all of our study of the economy and companies, it is subjective perception -- not objective reality -- that sets stock prices.

And it's perplexing because, as Keynes pointed out, all of the judges are fully aware of the true nature of the contest and act accordingly. Each judge knows that he's a player in an fabulously complex game of psych and double-psych, an infinite regress of figuring out what the other guy is thinking you're thinking he's thinking you're thinking he's thinking, and so on and so on ...

Which is why I eventually came to trade by price. But all that's in other threads in another forum.

What can be said about this, not that it gives one a kick, but an enormous thrill instead.

 

[dbphoenix]

A thrill and relief. Typing with one hand, Bertie?

 

[SOCRATES]

A thrill and relief. Typing with one hand, Bertie?

You cannot imagine how pleased I am with the way you explain and lay out things sometimes.
On this occasion I must compliment you without reserve on two excellent posts. I am actually giving you reputation points for your effort. Go and look.

 

[barjon]

My apologies. I missed the post which you're quoting. And apparently you do not want to walk an abstract path, though many are dragged onto one on message boards since they tend to focus on the philosophical and the abstract rather than the concrete, specific, and useful. And you brought it back to earth easily because you know what you want and are content with what you have. And to hell with anybody who isn't willing to allow you that contentment.

But wanting to understand more about trader behavior does not diminish the success you enjoy. You simply want to enhance what you have. That doesn't make you unsuccessful. It makes you curious.

The "something", however, is not abstract or ethereal. Anyone who wants to understand it can do so if they're willing to go through the process. Which takes us back to my group and the journalling process, which is between the two of us and something I won't get into here since all of that is private. I will say here, however, that if you take a mechanical view and regard the market as a "thing" rather than an amalgam of and manifestation of trader behavior, then the finer and not-so-finer points of price movement will likely be difficult for you to understand.

All of which can easily descend into yet another abstract discussion of What Is A Market blah blah, none of which is necessary or perhaps even helpful. And you already know what I think about all of this, and so does anyone else who's read even part of the threads I link under my name.

So, either forget about the elusive Something and be happy with what you've got and what you're doing, or roll up your sleeves and get back to the work you began last year (or so). There's no intrinsic value to one or the other. You don't have to be a chicken to appreciate an egg.

Thanks, db

So hard work (properly focussed) leads to greater understanding leads to the missing "something" getting smaller and smaller writ. Then, to trade that understanding successfully, remember jtrader's number 3 of obeying your rules at all times.

Your point about concentrating on trader behaviour is also well taken.

good trading

jon

 

[dbphoenix]

Thanks, db

So hard work (properly focussed) leads to greater understanding leads to the missing "something" getting smaller and smaller writ.

Maybe. Depends on the context of the work. If you're working alone and essentially re-inventing the wheel, then maybe not. But then, nowadays, there's no reason to do so.

Hard work, in other words, in and of itself, does not necessarily lead to greater understanding, any more than continually pounding away at an unprofitable strategy will somehow make it profitable. This is somewhat akin to the difference between having ten years' experience and having one year of experience ten times.

Then, to trade that understanding successfully, remember jtrader's number 3 of obeying your rules at all times.

If the rules stem from a consistently profitable trading strategy, then yes.

 

[barjon]

point taken - that's what I meant by putting "properly focussed" in brackets.

 

[dbphoenix]

The "properly focused" part, though, is the stick in the spokes, one of the reasons why this thread is now over 300 posts, which are only a drop in the ocean of posts here and elsewhere which address this. And at this point it seems appropriate to refer those who care to all that is available here, particularly in the KL, rather than repeat all of this yet again ad infinitum, ad nauseum.

 

[new_trader]

“Why do so few succeed?”

To prosper in Trading you MUST do 3 things

1) Develop a Trading System
2) Test it
3) Trade it

Few traders do all 3 and this is why few succeed.

 

[Charlton]

Clarity is the key

This thread clearly demonstrates the reasons why some traders are more successful than others.

Successful traders:
(a) Keep focused and be able to sort out the truly valuable information from all the dross - the background noise, some of which is intentionally designed to mislead
(b) Do not divert their attention with searches for holy grails such as multitudinous variations on indicators, all the latest fashionable theorems etc. This is another variation of (a) - they focus on the obvious, even though others may overlook it
(c) Do not follow every guru or attempt to take shortcuts by using mechanical systems, alerts or watchlists provided by others when they do not understand the mechanics upon which they are based, assuming they are based on anything at all. This is another variation of (b)
(d) Will put in the hard work to analyse the market and create their own systems
(e) Will not let their emotions get in the way of trading, but will stick to their pre-defined plan giving clear entry, exit and money management strategies
(f) Will not be arrogant and therefore narrow-minded. Their minds will be open to new ways of thinking and adaptable as the market changes
(g) Will understand the forces that drive the market - seen and underseen, phsychological and manipulative. They will understand which events are causally related, which ones do not have direct causal relationship and which are hiding under the guise of random events

Charlton

 

[barjon]

Those of you who have been following this thread will know that it became somewhat heavily littered with extraneous comment I have done my best to clear it up and anyone wanting to follow the entertainment can see the near 200 posts I've shifted here http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=18943

If I've ruffled any feathers with my heavy pruning, then my apologies. And aplogies also if what remains seems somewhat disjointed at times.

good trading

jon

 

[barjon]

hey come on guys - don't ruin all my work

I've deleted the last few posts and if you want to keep on with off topic posts then use the new addendum - here it is again http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=18943

good trading

jon

 

[SOCRATES]

Dear Barjon,

contrary to what you may assume, all of it is very far from being entertainment. it is a display which is valuable and relevant. What you have destroyed by splitting up this thread is a very important record, and I am dismayed that you have done this because your intentions are honourable and well meaning. The consequence of this inadvertent blunder is that the "display cabinet" is now made empty.

You have succeeded in undoing all my work on this thread.

My work on this thread has not only to bring to the notice of those who need it to be told what the criteria are for success as foundation faculties, but, more importantly and exclusively for the benefit of serious and savvy members and visitors, to stimulate the disruptive elements to post and show their hand, as a testament for everyone to see as to who's who in the zoo, so to speak.

In both respects the thread has been a success. I am and remain, totally impervious to criticism of any kind.

The mission within the mission has been to show up who is serious and who is not, for readers to make their own judgement and for holders of knowledge and valuable information to observe silently and for them to note everything said by everybody. This allows these powerful and informed observers to make a judgement as to who can be helped and who not. This is why merit and conduct are such important attributes in aspirants. The responses and posts on this thread had provided an ideal frame of reference in this regard. Now you have gone and destroyed all this information which was part of a very effective intelligence gathering excercise for interested parties to benefit from.

I will state once again, that I am not interested in teaching or tutoring or mentoring anybody, nor am I interested in any commercial venture with anybody, nor can I be persuaded to write any books or to give any demonstrations for any reason whatsoever of my methods. Therefore for me there is no material interest of any sort, my interest is purely incisively intellectual. My interest is to show up clearly the responses and for them to remain on record so that they can be judged intellectually, morally and socially, so that readers are properly able to categorise and to judge according to the posture, language, attitude and aptitude of respondents, and this, from an unseen and impartial viewpoint.

As an afterthought, the thread ought to have been entitled " Why can so few succeed ?".

Kind Regards As Usual.

 

[dbphoenix]

hey come on guys - don't ruin all my work

I've deleted the last few posts and if you want to keep on with off topic posts then use the new addendum - here it is again http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=18943

good trading

jon

Ask yourself, jon. If Socrates hadn't launched into his usual, how many posts would you have had to delete/move?

 

[new_trader]

for readers to make their own judgement

Such HYPOCRISY!

and for holders of knowledge and valuable information to observe silently and for them to note everything said by everybody.

The fact that you couldn't "observe silently "speaks volumes.

 

[barjon]

..................................................My work on this thread has not only to bring to the notice of those who need it to be told what the criteria are for success as foundation faculties, but, more importantly and exclusively for the benefit of serious and savvy members and visitors, to stimulate the disruptive elements to post and show their hand, as a testament for everyone to see as to who's who in the zoo, so to speak......................................


................................................The mission within the mission has been to show up who is serious and who is not, for readers to make their own judgement and for holders of knowledge and valuable information to observe silently and for them to note everything said by everybody. This allows these powerful and informed observers to make a judgement as to who can be helped and who not. This is why merit and conduct are such important attributes in aspirants. The responses and posts on this thread had provided an ideal frame of reference in this regard. Now you have gone and destroyed all this information which was part of a very effective intelligence gathering excercise for interested parties to benefit from.

.......................................................

Socrates

Whatever your mission within a mission may have been, the topic of this thread is quite clear in its title. Your posts relating directly to that topic are retained on the thread. Those where you may have had some other purpose are not lost but can be found in the addendum where any interested audience can view them and draw what conclusions they may.

I'm sure you will appreciate that threads exist to enable participants to discuss the topic raised and not to enable others to pursue something else, particularly when that leads to levels of disruption and disquiet that have been prevalent here.

Future browsers of T2W who are attracted by the topic will want to open the thread and find discussion about it and not have to plough through the diversions that have taken place in order to pursue that topic.

good trading

jon

 

[SOCRATES]

.......................................................

Socrates

Whatever your mission within a mission may have been, the topic of this thread is quite clear in its title. Your posts relating directly to that topic are retained on the thread. Those where you may have had some other purpose are not lost but can be found in the addendum where any interested audience can view them and draw what conclusions they may.

I'm sure you will appreciate that threads exist to enable participants to discuss the topic raised and not to enable others to pursue something else, particularly when that leads to levels of disruption and disquiet that have been prevalent here.

Future browsers of T2W who are attracted by the topic will want to open the thread and find discussion about it and not have to plough through the diversions that have taken place in order to pursue that topic.

good trading

jon

Dear Barjon,

Thank you for your reply. I assure you that the levels of disruption you mention are not of my making but as a result of me having to respond adequately when attacked.
And you know very well that if I am attacked, I respond.You cannot expect me not to respond to impertinent and ill considered posts directed at me.

Now Sir, the dilemma arises, that intertwined with these attacks and actually contained within them, are very clear examples of individual and collective opinions.

These opinions create fertile ground to illustrate and illuminate and accentuate and demonstrate very clearly indeed the inabilities that cause aspirants to prevent themselves from attaining the objective that they so fervently seek. We could say it takes on, that it transmutes itself into the form of a virtual showcase.

Therefore the original mission which is to discuss, but in my case to lay out for all to see what are the true criteria required for proficiency, now unexpectedly develops itself into a mission within a mission by virtue of the quality and consistency of response, which is not the one expected on inception.

It is because of the very nature and quality and relevance of the contributions that the thread adopted a showcase quality all of its own. This showcase quality is very useful, but only when viewed as a whole and not as a fractured and edited reduction, I respectfully submit.

Very Kind Regards,

 

[counter_violent]

Which are the direct result of your aggressive rudeness toward others, particularly beginners.

And so we go round and round yet again.

If Bertie's posts are worth all the extra work, fine.

If not . . .

His rudeness knows no bounds.The only way to deal with this is to reciprocate, as the readership have so ably demonstrated. If we take it lying down then it will continue unabated to the detriment of the site and the members generally.

Who would be a moderator eh ....nightmare...