Why do so few succeed?

[wasp]

uncanny

Those of you that know, know

Then of course, there is the dog.

The dog sits outside the cycle of hand, cat and fish and has very little to do with any of it. He merely watches due to his lack of ability, skill and/or fear of making a mockery of himself. He can see the tank, he can see and watches the fish, and watches the hand produce food and laughs at the cat, although in awe of him.

This dog, sitting on the sidelines, watches and forever professes to know the best ways for the fish and the cat to live and react to the different situations that confront them. He will insist he knows every little trick each other plays and knows exactly, in a nanosecond, just when something will happen. Although the dog sits and tries to ensure to all he knows the best way, although he never puts his dignity on the line and proves himself, he just persists in his small world of self superiority whilst the fish carry on and eat the food when it appears, occasionally get a knock on the head by the cat but invaribly sleep happy at the end of the day.

Chris

Continued.....Final Instalment

We can see how The Cat and The Goldfish are limited.

They are limited by their perceptions and by their environment.

Now I was very curious to know how it is that Cats and Foxes get on, if at all. I made a study of this and I found them to be totally indifferent to each other, suprisingly.

You would think they would not get on at all, but in fact the opposite is the case.

This is because they have different Objecitves.

Now The Fox appears on the scene.........

This is an Old Grey Fox, who knows all the tricks. He is the one who is able to take advantage of anything because he is quick, alert and experienced.

This Fox is much faster than The Cat and even the owner of The Hand.

He is a super predator, very wily and clever he is.

He is also very fussy. He likes chicken and braided fish, and any meat and bones, and Curry provided it is not too hot, those in the know, know, and those who do not, do not.

But I digress....This Old Grey Fox waits for an opportunity and weighs up his chances and then pounces.

He has been known to make off with a complete string of sausages on occasion.

Sometimes even twice or more, from different households in the neighboorhood.

He will strike, but only when conditions are absolutely right and the odds are in his favour.

The Hand that feeds is caught unawares by his speed and craftiness.

He is an Old Grey Fox because he is, and not a Cat or a Goldfish at all.

I hope and expect all of this illustrates the point, those who understand do, and those who don't do not.

All of it is obvious. The "O" is because the Old Grey Fox above all is a keen Observer.

His great ability is To Observe and then act Very Quickly in line with his Observation.

 

[SOCRATES]

Those of you that know, know

Yes and no.

The difference is that the dog is a domesticated household pet, tame and docile.

The Fox is a wild animal, and that makes him wary of everyone and at the same time a supreme predator, as I have explained. He is ferocious, very astute, and very quick.

As the Fox is independent and free, he is not answerable to anyone. He comes and goes as he pleases and is not obligated to anyone in any way whatsoever.

As there are few foxes but lots of other creatures, additionally the fox only fraternises with other foxes who have the same attributes.

Then no one is allowed to learn anything as to how to be ferocious, very astute, and quick.

But everyone is allowed to pretend that they are.

 

[laird154]

Over the even years of my involvement with the markets, commodities, stocks and emini day trading, I've heard the number "90%" as the failure rate frequently put out. I've no idea if that is accurate or not, I do suspect it probably is based on my own experience and that of several close trader friends I came to know over this time period.. These are smart people, 45-65, who've had success in other fields (required in order to have any capitol to trade with).

Out of the entire group, not ONE of us has had much success in the markets. We've all gone through the required "riies of passage": expensive seminars, expensive software, a ton of books, psychological trading coaches, and thousands of hours of screen time. The net result of which several stopped trading, having lost most of their trading capitol, and moved on to more productive "hobbies". A few of us, battle scarred and blooded, carry on.

If I were to ask myself the question, "Why have you failed to be successful as a trader"? I would not hesitate to answer " We have met the enemy, and it is us" When I started trading in 1999, it was a LOT easier, the momentum in the market was strongly bullish and of course I, like most people, thought it was a piece of cake: buy a stock today, sell it 2-3 days later at a huge profit. Where's the problem? Well, the problem is, as we all know, the bubble burst and the past 6 years have been very very difficult , even for the very best traders.

The other reason, is the incredible arrogance that seems to be pervasive in new traders, probably due, at least in part, to the endless hype and nonsense we are exposed to by the "Trading-Made -Easy" software venders and the CNBC Wall St infomercials on "how to make millions trading" crowd. One expects to buy a very expensive peice of software, attend a seminar or two, read a few books and watch the money rain down. One would not expect to be successful in the "standard" career fields, law, medicine, engineering, etc etc, without putting in many years of hard work and training, but somehow, new traders seem to think the markets are different. The irony is, one CAN put in years of hard work and training in the markets AND still have no success. Someone posted "Knowledge" , or rather lack of it, as being the "reason" so many fail. Not true. There are many knowledgable trading gurus out there who make a nice living teaching wannabies how to trade, they know eveything there is to know about HOW to trade, technical analysis, etc. But they don't trade! We "think" that by associating ourselves with succsssful traders that somehow THAT will get us to the Promised Land, also not true.

The knowledge we need is within us, not outside. Find out who you are.

 

[chump]

Congragulations for your candidness Laird ...I posted earlier on in this thread about some individuals not much different to the type you are describing ...have a read if you have not already read it ...I'm going to let you in on a secret (run for the trees) ...it's mostly
all about accepting and managing UNCERTAINTY ......... for what it is worth I pretty much fit your profile group except I really do understand that having started with nothing , and got a lot there is no rule that says I get to keep it UNLESS I have an ongoing plan for managing that outcome ....you'll see massive evidence on here and elsewhere of the lengths people will go to in attempting to deflect uncertainty as opposed to managing it.
Good fortune to you.

 

[Quenkish]

Over the even years of my involvement with the markets, commodities, stocks and emini day trading, I've heard the number "90%" as the failure rate frequently put out. I've no idea if that is accurate or not, I do suspect it probably is based on my own experience and that of several close trader friends I came to know over this time period.. These are smart people, 45-65, who've had success in other fields (required in order to have any capitol to trade with).

Out of the entire group, not ONE of us has had much success in the markets. We've all gone through the required "riies of passage": expensive seminars, expensive software, a ton of books, psychological trading coaches, and thousands of hours of screen time. The net result of which several stopped trading, having lost most of their trading capitol, and moved on to more productive "hobbies". A few of us, battle scarred and blooded, carry on.

If I were to ask myself the question, "Why have you failed to be successful as a trader"? I would not hesitate to answer " We have met the enemy, and it is us" When I started trading in 1999, it was a LOT easier, the momentum in the market was strongly bullish and of course I, like most people, thought it was a piece of cake: buy a stock today, sell it 2-3 days later at a huge profit. Where's the problem? Well, the problem is, as we all know, the bubble burst and the past 6 years have been very very difficult , even for the very best traders.

The other reason, is the incredible arrogance that seems to be pervasive in new traders, probably due, at least in part, to the endless hype and nonsense we are exposed to by the "Trading-Made -Easy" software venders and the CNBC Wall St infomercials on "how to make millions trading" crowd. One expects to buy a very expensive peice of software, attend a seminar or two, read a few books and watch the money rain down. One would not expect to be successful in the "standard" career fields, law, medicine, engineering, etc etc, without putting in many years of hard work and training, but somehow, new traders seem to think the markets are different. The irony is, one CAN put in years of hard work and training in the markets AND still have no success. Someone posted "Knowledge" , or rather lack of it, as being the "reason" so many fail. Not true. There are many knowledgable trading gurus out there who make a nice living teaching wannabies how to trade, they know eveything there is to know about HOW to trade, technical analysis, etc. But they don't trade! We "think" that by associating ourselves with succsssful traders that somehow THAT will get us to the Promised Land, also not true.

The knowledge we need is within us, not outside. Find out who you are.

Well said laird154 you have spoken more sense and constructively in this one post then what has been said in hundreds of other postings. This about sums it all up!

 

[Pat494]

Robin Dayne (Sep 23, 2003 4:55:38 PM)
Document the characteristics of your perfect trade…read it each day and change it when it needs to. Take a “reality check” and honesty pill Ask great questions: “What’s REALLY Happening” “How can I make that better”

About 0.1% of article From Elite

 

[Kunal]

Can you post a link to the article ?

 

[Pat494]

Can you post a link to the article ?

If you mean the one from Robin dayne it's:-
http://www.elitetrader.com/ch/transcripts/robin_dayne.cfm

 

[laird154]

Thanks for your kind words, glad you found the post helpful. The information I shared was truly hard earned and VERY expensive. Is there a better way? Absolutely! I have no idea what it might be, if any of you do, please enlighten me!

 

[Profitaker]

Laird

Can I just say your post #577 really was excellent and thought provoking !

Especially agree regarding the arrogance of some traders, and not necessarily new ones ! Nobody is bigger than the market and very few can afford to argue with it. Yet every day the BB's are littered with "why" and "how" "this will go up" or "that will go down" and how they just increased their stake.

What is the definition success anyway ? If one really wants to be scientific we'd need to use the Sharp ratio, or some similar risk/reward measure.

I'm actually not convinced that the 90% figure is correct. It's often banded around but I've never actually seen any study or report to substantiate it.

Personally I think the markets are largely random, which would mean that traders P&L would broadly resemble a normal (random) distribution, with most trader hovering around break-even before slippage. Obviously there will be some spectacular winners, some spectacular losers too.

 

[chump]

Profitaker.....the best and simplest way I have seen this expressed is through the equity curve and particularly has explained and described by Nick Radge in his text Adaptive Analysis ...I won't try to improve on that ...no need. Basically a lot of traders hover on or around the marginal area of the curve ...why ? LOL ...we've already identified most of the reasons on this thread.

 

[Profitaker]

Nick Radge in his text Adaptive Analysis...

Is that some research ? Any link or gist available ?

 

[Jerry Olson]

Over the even years of my involvement with the markets, commodities, stocks and emini day trading, I've heard the number "90%" as the failure rate frequently put out. I've no idea if that is accurate or not, I do suspect it probably is based on my own experience and that of several close trader friends I came to know over this time period.. These are smart people, 45-65, who've had success in other fields (required in order to have any capitol to trade with).

Out of the entire group, not ONE of us has had much success in the markets. We've all gone through the required "riies of passage": expensive seminars, expensive software, a ton of books, psychological trading coaches, and thousands of hours of screen time. The net result of which several stopped trading, having lost most of their trading capitol, and moved on to more productive "hobbies". A few of us, battle scarred and blooded, carry on.

If I were to ask myself the question, "Why have you failed to be successful as a trader"? I would not hesitate to answer " We have met the enemy, and it is us" When I started trading in 1999, it was a LOT easier, the momentum in the market was strongly bullish and of course I, like most people, thought it was a piece of cake: buy a stock today, sell it 2-3 days later at a huge profit. Where's the problem? Well, the problem is, as we all know, the bubble burst and the past 6 years have been very very difficult , even for the very best traders.

The other reason, is the incredible arrogance that seems to be pervasive in new traders, probably due, at least in part, to the endless hype and nonsense we are exposed to by the "Trading-Made -Easy" software venders and the CNBC Wall St infomercials on "how to make millions trading" crowd. One expects to buy a very expensive peice of software, attend a seminar or two, read a few books and watch the money rain down. One would not expect to be successful in the "standard" career fields, law, medicine, engineering, etc etc, without putting in many years of hard work and training, but somehow, new traders seem to think the markets are different. The irony is, one CAN put in years of hard work and training in the markets AND still have no success. Someone posted "Knowledge" , or rather lack of it, as being the "reason" so many fail. Not true. There are many knowledgable trading gurus out there who make a nice living teaching wannabies how to trade, they know eveything there is to know about HOW to trade, technical analysis, etc. But they don't trade! We "think" that by associating ourselves with succsssful traders that somehow THAT will get us to the Promised Land, also not true.

The knowledge we need is within us, not outside. Find out who you are.

Hello Laird 154

I am respectfully going to have to disagree with you. Learning to trade with the best for me is & was the correct way to gain the true methodolgy needed to learn "how to trade" successfully.

I am 65 years old been in the markets for 30 years the last 10 as a scalper daytrader. I make my living actually trading Nasdaq stocks on a day to day basis.

The real problem is getting down and dirty into the pits of this game and take the KISS method for all it's worth and then make the simple and serious easy execution when you pull the trigger.

It's the emotional aspects of the trade not the mechanical ones that screw everyones head off it's base. Heck i can teach anyone to trade if they would just listen and do it!!

Most traders refuse to accept success. Some how they always fall off the wagon killing themsleves dead beause of lack of conviction, lack of severe diciphline to the art of that trade.

If you have to think about what your doing then your DOA. If you trade whats in front of your face without emotion you can become a winner. It's all about removing fear and greed from your whole body, your whole trading life.

We all have these demons rest assure. I have them all the people i trade with have them. We are not immune. But if you can gather ones thoughts, knowing full well that the tools and tactics of a pro trader can help you and that they work, then you'll understand and believe!

This art form is not rocket science. It's simply understanding what your seeing and reacting to it quietly, relaxed with utter confidence that you "know" what your doing is going to make that trade a winner.

Do we always win, of course not. But using the proper stops both above and below each trade helps a great deal to relieve the pain and suffering that freezes us in our tracks. The fear of losing money is the Demon that kills all traders.

If we can overcome that one thing we can and will succeed.

I only hope that all of us will continue to try and help others that are serious about trading the markets for a living.

my best regards

jerry

 

[dbphoenix]

Hello Laird 154

I am respectfully going to have to disagree with you. Learning to trade with the best for me is & was the correct way to gain the true methodolgy needed to learn "how to trade" successfully.

I am 65 years old been in the markets for 30 years the last 10 as a scalper daytrader. I make my living actually trading Nasdaq stocks on a day to day basis.

The real problem is getting down and dirty into the pits of this game and take the KISS method for all it's worth and then make the simple and serious easy execution when you pull the trigger.

It's the emotional aspects of the trade not the mechanical ones that screw everyones head off it's base. Heck i can teach anyone to trade if they would just listen and do it!!

Most traders refuse to accept success. Some how they always fall off the wagon killing themsleves dead beause of lack of conviction, lack of severe diciphline to the art of that trade.

If you have to think about what your doing then your DOA. If you trade whats in front of your face without emotion you can become a winner. It's all about removing fear and greed from your whole body, your whole trading life.

We all have these demons rest assure. I have them all the people i trade with have them. We are not immune. But if you can gather ones thoughts, knowing full well that the tools and tactics of a pro trader can help you and that they work, then you'll understand and believe!

This art form is not rocket science. It's simply understanding what your seeing and reacting to it quietly, relaxed with utter confidence that you "know" what your doing is going to make that trade a winner.

Do we always win, of course not. But using the proper stops both above and below each trade helps a great deal to relieve the pain and suffering that freezes us in our tracks. The fear of losing money is the Demon that kills all traders.

If we can overcome that one thing we can and will succeed.

I only hope that all of us will continue to try and help others that are serious about trading the markets for a living.

my best regards

jerry

Thank you, Jerry. My sentiments also.

And while I'm not making this remark with reference to Laird, I caution newbie and not-so-newbie traders alike to be skeptical regarding the "years of experience" business. The trader who has ten years' experience may well be successful, or at least on the road to it. But the trader who has one year of experience ten times is going to find himself on these boards, wondering why success continues to elude him.

Again, this is not in reference to Laird's comment except insofar as his mentioning it reminds me of all those who say that they've been trading for blah blah years and ain't it awful blah blah.

 

[Jerry Olson]

Thank you, Jerry. My sentiments also.

And while I'm not making this remark with reference to Laird, I caution newbie and not-so-newbie traders alike to be skeptical regarding the "years of experience" business. The trader who has ten years' experience may well be successful, or at least on the road to it. But the trader who has one year of experience ten times is going to find himself on these boards, wondering why success continues to elude him.

Again, this is not in reference to Laird's comment except insofar as his mentioning it reminds me of all those who say that they've been trading for blah blah years and ain't it awful blah blah.

I tend to agree with you especially for new un trained traders, or newbies as we all call them. This is a hard poofession to master because of the emotional aspects of it.

Reading books is fine but they are not going to teach you what it feels like to place at risk funds in that trade.

It's like paper trading, it's fun, it's entertaiing, and yes you can "practise" what traders are taught to do, howevre puting our money where our mouth is a whole different ballgame. And unless and untill people expierence it, everything else is meaningless really...

have a great evening i am called for dinner by the wife......................

later

 

[charliechan]

psycho-cybernetics by maltz is the only hope to anyone still reading this!

 

[charliechan]

has anybody ever experienced themselves in a position all of a sudden, with little recollection of the prints or getting in? - it was just kind of automatic...

just like picking your keys up off the table - you do it without thinking......

 

[Lightning McQueen]

has anybody ever experienced themselves in a position all of a sudden, with little recollection of the prints or getting in? - it was just kind of automatic...

just like picking your keys up off the table - you do it without thinking......

i'd go easy on the sauce if i were you

 

[Millano]

On the subject of percentage of success, I wonder what sort of percent usually beat the indices?
Because 'success' can vary. It's one thing to return 30% a year and need to quit due to living expenses, compared to quitting after losing half your capital.

 

[jezza888]

I often hear that only a very small percentage of traders actually make it

Because most are not interested in learning... just too intested in a quick buck that never appears.