Why did the DOW rally yesterday in the last hour?

MrBrilliant

Member
94 4
I've been trying to figure out what caused the DOW to jump 70 points, mostly over the course of about 10 minutes, yesterday around 15:00.

I haven't been able to find an earnings release or a news event that could have caused this.

Anybody have any idea what happened?
 

Pferd

Active member
132 16
I've been trying to figure out what caused the DOW to jump 70 points, mostly over the course of about 10 minutes, yesterday around 15:00.

I haven't been able to find an earnings release or a news event that could have caused this.

Anybody have any idea what happened?

you are obviously not familiar with the 03:30 pm ramp LLC (sponsored by the PPT - Plunge Protection Team). It happens almost everyday now after the European close. And if it is a Friday is even worse. In the last hour of trading they slam the VIX down which ignites the algos to buy left, right and center. Then you get these movements nobody can explain.

Beware of rigged, central banks planned markets.
 

MrBrilliant

Member
94 4
you are obviously not familiar with the 03:30 pm ramp LLC (sponsored by the PPT - Plunge Protection Team). It happens almost everyday now after the European close. And if it is a Friday is even worse. In the last hour of trading they slam the VIX down which ignites the algos to buy left, right and center. Then you get these movements nobody can explain.

Beware of rigged, central banks planned markets.

Hey, thank for that. Is there any chance you could explain a bit more about this? I haven't seen this sort of spike in the last few weeks, so I'm confused when you say it's happening every day. (By the way, I meant the rally that started at 14:50 EST yesterday)
 

tar

Legendary member
10,443 1,313
Could be front running before funds start buying stocks at the end of week/session ...
Or short covering after a good selloff ...
 

Pferd

Active member
132 16
go to zerohedge, there are almost daily articles about these "games". You can read everyday the market wrap up which they publish around 20-30 minutes after closing. All these movements are explained there. This is the one for yesterday:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-16/mysterious-vix-seller-ramps-sp-unchanged-week

It happens almost daily, some days more noticeable than others. Look for the movements in USDJPY, VIX and specially the S&P during the last 30 minutes of trading. Some days like yesterday even before.

If you follow exclusively the Dow you may not notice the movements so easily. Remember the Dow only includes 30 companies (which are very big in capitalization and therefore more difficult to manipulate). But the movements in the S&P and the Russell are just beyond believe.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MrBrilliant

MrBrilliant

Member
94 4
That's fascinating, thanks Pferd. I've been making consistent money for the last 3-4 months from trading intraday options on FTSE and DOW based on technical indicators, but I've been getting f***ed the last 2-3 weeks so this goes a long way in explaining what's going on.
 

Windlesham1

Well-known member
475 42
For the same reason FTSE at expiry is held up to allow he banksters who are short the 6850 puts can get away free and clear- it is blatant market rigging and yes, I forget to trade it every time!
 

markobr

Newbie
3 1
If only they can explain future moves as opposed to post move analysis

I suppose 'the riggers' make it difficult on purpose
 

tar

Legendary member
10,443 1,313
Who believes in conspiracies should bring a proof , and who says that this is a totally free transparent market should bring a proof as well . Anything is possible .

______________

Investors May Have Gained Early Word on Fed Policy, Study Finds

Some investors may have gotten early word of changes to Federal Reserve policy between 1997 and 2013 and profited by trading before the policy shifts were publicly announced, according to Singapore-based researchers.

Trading records show abnormally large price movements and imbalances in buy and sell orders that are “statistically significant and in the direction of the subsequent policy surprise,” according to a paper by Gennaro Bernile, Jianfeng Hu and Yuehua Tang at Singapore Management University.

The moves occurred before and during the time that reporters were given the Federal Open Market Committee statement in so-called media lockups.

On days the FOMC policy decision deviated from market expectations, “back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that the aggregate dollar profits” from early access to the statement ranged between $14 million and $256 million, the authors said in the study titled, “Can information be locked up? Informed trading before macro-news announcements.”

The Fed, starting with the release of its FOMC statement on Oct. 30, tightened regulation of the lockup.

The stricter rules were adopted “to better protect the information against premature release,” Joe Pavel, a Fed spokesman, said yesterday. “We review our processes and controls on an ongoing basis and make adjustments as necessary to address any issues.”

Under new procedures, journalists from media organizations, including Bloomberg News, gather in a room at Fed headquarters in Washington. They are forbidden to carry phones into the lockup, and lines connecting their computers to the Internet are blocked.

Lines Opened

Journalists are given the FOMC statement 20 minutes before its release to the public, giving them time to prepare stories. When the 20 minutes elapse, lines of communications are opened and journalists allowed to transmit their stories.

Under prior rules, the Fed released the statement in the press room of the U.S. Treasury Department about 10 minutes before the release time. While journalists promised to respect the embargo, computer lines weren’t blocked.

The central bank’s process for releasing the statement came under scrutiny after trading in financial instruments linked to gold in New York and Chicago occurred quickly after the release of the Fed’s policy statement on Sept. 18. Trading in gold futures and exchange-traded funds linked to gold intensified within a millisecond of the 2 p.m. eastern time FOMC release that day, according to Nanex LLC, a firm that analyzes high-frequency trading.

The Singapore study, by contrast, focused on the period before the embargo expired.

‘Robust Evidence’

“We find robust evidence of informed trading, as measured by the abnormal price run-up and order imbalance of equity index futures and exchange-traded funds, during the lockup periods ahead of FOMC announcements,” the authors wrote.

The authors studied the E-mini S&P 500 futures contract, E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, and the PowerShares QQQ ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 index.

The researchers found that statistically significant order imbalances that correctly predicted the post-release market reaction tended to arise in the E-mini S&P 500 futures market between 10 minutes and 20 minutes before the scheduled release of the statement.

In the 10 minutes prior to the release of the statement, E-minis rose on average by 0.2 percentage point more on days when the announced policy decision was a surprise, compared with days when the decision was in line with the market consensus, the authors said.

No Evidence

The researchers found no evidence of trading abnormalities during media lockups ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ release of the monthly employment and inflation reports, or the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ release of the gross domestic product report. They tracked trading around FOMC policy statements released between Sept. 9, 1997 and June 30, 2013.

Bernile, 39, received a Ph.D. in finance from the University of Rochester in 2006. He taught at the University of Miami from 2006 to 2013, except for August 2008 to February 2010, during the financial crisis, when he was a visiting scholar at the Securities and Exchange Commission in Washington. Last year he moved to Singapore Management University.

A paper Bernile co-wrote on the backdating of stock options was published in 2009 in the Journal of Accounting and Economics.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...udy-finds.html
 

MrBrilliant

Member
94 4
No it doesn't. Everyone looking for a boogie man to blame for losses - no need to look further than yourself. Starting point is that you don't understand, not that there is a conspiracy.

We've all traded in conditions we don't understand - difference is whether we can break this cycle by being (brutally?) honest with ourselves about what we really know, don't know, and potentially don't know that we don't know. Your current level of knowledge is what it is - need to accept where you are and come up with a logical plan for improving your odds.

A good start. Keep trying to figure it out, don't accept pat answers without questioning and don't expect others to do the work for you. (giving the answers wouldn't mean anything without you going through the questioning process for yourself)

So assuming there wasn't one, then this shows that markets can move without news being a factor. You've now improved your knowledge. So why do markets fall and then rise again? Too general a question? What factors are relevant to this specific example? Your goal is to determine how the high probability of a rally can be detected in advance so you can buy ahead of it and profit.

Yes.

First of all, I didn't blame any boogey man. I asked for an explanation for a particular incident and I found out something about it, which as you said, is a start.

Secondly, your post is mostly rhetoric. I am trying to find out about it, so if you have any concrete suggestions (e.g. where to go to learn more), that would be useful.

Thanks
 

Pferd

Active member
132 16
Isn't funny that you can never get a concrete answer from all these self called "real experts"? When you push them to give some precise information they all quote "do your own research" and other funny answers. In case of this troll he has the balls of quoting "intellectual property" Please, give me a break.

If you have nothing productive to say please stay away from the post. If you just feel that today is a nice day to bully somebody, please go to the nearest park from your house and find some children or animals there with whom you can practice.

The guy just came here asking a legitimate question. If he was a well seasoned trader with years of experience, knowledge and success he will not be coming here asking these questions.

I think some people don't understand the purpose of a forum.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MrBrilliant

Pferd

Active member
132 16
I've been trying to figure out what caused the DOW to jump 70 points, mostly over the course of about 10 minutes, yesterday around 15:00.

I haven't been able to find an earnings release or a news event that could have caused this.

Anybody have any idea what happened?

For the sake of the argument, here is again the original question of the post.

In my point of view is very concrete. He wants a explanation to a particular event which he does not understand. He is not asking for a weather prediction for the next two weeks or the probability of the Queen of England passing the crown to Charles in 2014. He is neither interested as far as I can see in learning how some smart asshole trades the Russell index and makes money.

So the normal reaction of a normal person is trying to assist and point the other person in a direction which could be right, wrong, more interesting or less interesting, but that bring something for him to evaluate and decide if he is satisfied with the answer, if he wants to learn more or he wants to research further. But that is for him to decide.

He was not asking as far as I can see for a pontification about the knowledge, trials and tribulations of Mr x and other members of the forum.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MrBrilliant

barjon

Legendary member
10,705 1,809
Isn't funny that you can never get a concrete answer from all these self called "real experts"? When you push them to give some precise information they all quote "do your own research" and other funny answers. In case of this troll he has the balls of quoting "intellectual property" Please, give me a break.

If you have nothing productive to say please stay away from the post. If you just feel that today is a nice day to bully somebody, please go to the nearest park from your house and find some children or animals there with whom you can practice.

The guy just came here asking a legitimate question. If he was a well seasoned trader with years of experience, knowledge and success he will not be coming here asking these questions.

I think some people don't understand the purpose of a forum.

That's a bit harsh, pferd. Lurker is a long time and respected member of T2W as was MrMarcus.

That neither of them offer the sort of short cuts you seem to want perhaps give you a clue that there's rather more to it than that and a lot of hard work involved in learning - as is the case in other professions. You cannot become successful in those professions by virtue of a few hand-me-down tips - why should trading be any different?

Jon
 
  • Like
Reactions: lurkerlurker

Pferd

Active member
132 16
That's a bit harsh, pferd. Lurker is a long time and respected member of T2W as was MrMarcus.

That neither of them offer the sort of short cuts you seem to want perhaps give you a clue that there's rather more to it than that and a lot of hard work involved in learning - as is the case in other professions. You cannot become successful in those professions by virtue of a few hand-me-down tips - why should trading be any different?

Jon

Sorry, wrong reading as well. I don't want any short cuts. I want productive answers, whether they are short or long that does not matter. What I don't want is bluff, specially after he quotes me on his answer. You probably should have mentioned that before accusing me of being "harsh".

Again, we are going around in circles. The original post has a very concrete question on it. Either you people bring information to answer or help answer that question or this is just "pub talk".
 
 
AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

But it's thanks to our sponsors that access to Trade2Win remains free for all. By viewing our ads you help us pay our bills, so please support the site and disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock