Hi there

I find the Dax and the Dow the most interesting indicies to trade, the combination of a high number of points per % move and lower risk than some currency combinations. In trading the Dax, I often find it takes off, either in the same direction as the previous hours or the reverse, when Dow opens. Clearly they affect each other. Their correlation is statistically significant, I think it's fair to state.

Then there's the timing. Dax is of course affected by Asia before Dow wakes up, and also by what happened in Dow the evening before. And Dow is affected by what Dax has done all morning.

Well, I state these things, from experience at looking at the graphs, but I have no documentation for it at this time...

AND NOW TO THE QUESTION: Does anybody have any ideas/theories/tests/experience that can give us rules to trade from? E.g. (just a guess) "if Dax is up all morning, Dow will be up the first 2 hours", or "if Dow is higher than when Dax closed yesterday, Dax will go up from opening at least until Dow opens". I'm sure you get the idea. They of course don't have to be right 100% of the time, a nice 60-70% would be enough I think.

Any input will be appreciated...

What I can offer back is I have a good Excel model to test any such ideas, to see if any idea can be made into a consistent points-maker including the spread.

Thank you for reading this far.

I find the Dax and the Dow the most interesting indicies to trade, the combination of a high number of points per % move and lower risk than some currency combinations. In trading the Dax, I often find it takes off, either in the same direction as the previous hours or the reverse, when Dow opens. Clearly they affect each other. Their correlation is statistically significant, I think it's fair to state.

Then there's the timing. Dax is of course affected by Asia before Dow wakes up, and also by what happened in Dow the evening before. And Dow is affected by what Dax has done all morning.

Well, I state these things, from experience at looking at the graphs, but I have no documentation for it at this time...

AND NOW TO THE QUESTION: Does anybody have any ideas/theories/tests/experience that can give us rules to trade from? E.g. (just a guess) "if Dax is up all morning, Dow will be up the first 2 hours", or "if Dow is higher than when Dax closed yesterday, Dax will go up from opening at least until Dow opens". I'm sure you get the idea. They of course don't have to be right 100% of the time, a nice 60-70% would be enough I think.

Any input will be appreciated...

What I can offer back is I have a good Excel model to test any such ideas, to see if any idea can be made into a consistent points-maker including the spread.

Thank you for reading this far.

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