Leading indicator for DOW

No Quarter

Junior member
44 2
HI, I trade by creating excel models that predict directions and needed SL in DOW. The models try to predict the direction of DOW the following day etc. I know some say this can't be done, those people do not need to read any further ;-).

I've tried finding a good leading indicator, my attempts include:
-DOW itself the day before, 24 hour trade
-DOW itself, various ranges of hours before DOW opens
-DAX before DOW opens
-JPN Index before the morning (CET)
They all seem to have some validity, they can predict the direction of DOW with a 54%-60% accuracy. Making money on that is possible, but requires huge SLs and several days in a row of SL losses. A lift to maybe 60%-65% would make a world of difference.

My question to this forum is if anybody has other suggestions for a leading indicator for the DOW that I can test?

Thanks
 

Pat494

Legendary member
13,984 1,438
Could try assessing the 30 company components of the DOW or just the main ones like Amazon, Apple etc. Their company announcements etc. I haven't tried it myself but it seems logical.
 

fibo_trader

Veteren member
3,725 73
HI, I trade by creating excel models that predict directions and needed SL in DOW. The models try to predict the direction of DOW the following day etc. I know some say this can't be done, those people do not need to read any further ;-).

I've tried finding a good leading indicator, my attempts include:
-DOW itself the day before, 24 hour trade
-DOW itself, various ranges of hours before DOW opens
-DAX before DOW opens
-JPN Index before the morning (CET)
They all seem to have some validity, they can predict the direction of DOW with a 54%-60% accuracy. Making money on that is possible, but requires huge SLs and several days in a row of SL losses. A lift to maybe 60%-65% would make a world of difference.

My question to this forum is if anybody has other suggestions for a leading indicator for the DOW that I can test?

Thanks


Good boy! I like the way you think (I know some say this can't be done, those people do not need to read any further ;-))

This is a project that one should never quit .... time and effort and digging but they CAN be found.

Thus far .........................

More exploration is needed in the realm of Bond Differentials and Ratios but thus far ..................

AAA -10y

Vix (but only with very special application)
 

fibo_trader

Veteren member
3,725 73
HI, I trade by creating excel models that predict directions and needed SL in DOW. The models try to predict the direction of DOW the following day etc. I know some say this can't be done, those people do not need to read any further ;-).

I've tried finding a good leading indicator, my attempts include:
-DOW itself the day before, 24 hour trade
-DOW itself, various ranges of hours before DOW opens
-DAX before DOW opens
-JPN Index before the morning (CET)
They all seem to have some validity, they can predict the direction of DOW with a 54%-60% accuracy. Making money on that is possible, but requires huge SLs and several days in a row of SL losses. A lift to maybe 60%-65% would make a world of difference.

My question to this forum is if anybody has other suggestions for a leading indicator for the DOW that I can test?

Thanks


DAX, N_225 et al not reliable.

There is however the London FTSE lead the Dow's 1929, 1973, 1987, 2000, 2007 and 2019 tops. Not bad as a leading indicator.
 

ssam

Well-known member
282 8
Here is one for you, it depends if you are expecting this to be a sit and wait or requires a daily active input... a while ago I ran some back testing on the first ‘open’ 1 hour candle printed on the any instrument to provide the sentiment for that trading day...

Combine that with a MACD or RSI?

Just an idea
 

fibo_trader

Veteren member
3,725 73
Only one, just one of many, non-chart Leading Indicator(s) for the Dow Jones:

(1) When T2W & ET are predominantly either super bullish or mesmerized (=neither bullish nor bearish but just simply with expressions of lostness on their faces) ............................................ SELL SELL SELLL

(2) When taxi drivers, doormen, waiters, barristas at Starbucks tell you how easily they are making money in the stock market ................... SELL SELL SELLL

(3) When big FUND managers have very very very low CASH (=fully or nearly fully invested in the LONG side) ...... prepare to sell when the level goes to historic lows - if it crosses even historic lows, SELL SELL SELLL

(4) When a major magazine comes out with a bullish cover after an extant trend has already been running gangbusters for years, know that they being the HERD have just extrapolated that trend to infinity. Right then and there is a good time to SELL SELL SELL

This will shock poster known as Inquistor ...... magazines such as Businessweek, Time Magazine, Newsweek, Fortune, Barron's, Wall Street Journal etc., etc., they operate as a HERD element = group think = no individual differences in thinking = destined to be losers right at the starting gate. When I see big headlines on Barron's about how great the bullmarket is, I know the TOP is near.


 

fibo_trader

Veteren member
3,725 73
Forgive 'em Father, they refuse to learn and refuse to exit group think because its warm fuzzy and cuddly feeling - they just don't got the kahunas to go it alone and think for thesssselves.
 

fibo_trader

Veteren member
3,725 73
Could try assessing the 30 company components of the DOW or just the main ones like Amazon, Apple etc. Their company announcements etc. I haven't tried it myself but it seems logical.


Do NOT come up with an answer like this op's if you are called for an interview at Harvard, Princeton, Yale, Cambridge, Oxford or Stanford, and given a one-question-only verbal test for the entrance to the Master's program. You will fail on the spot and be told that you should do your GCE O'Level again and then repeat the undergrad program - that even grace marks cannot save you.
 

fibo_trader

Veteren member
3,725 73
Do NOT come up with an answer like this op's if you are called for an interview at Harvard, Princeton, Yale, Cambridge, Oxford or Stanford, and given a one-question-only verbal test for the entrance to the Master's program. You will fail on the spot and be told that you should do your GCE O'Level again and then repeat the undergrad program - that even grace marks cannot save you.

sorry, he is not the op. Post stands w.r.t. to him only, not the op. The op has already gotten 1st Prize for outstanding question asked. All his sins, if any, are forgiven on the spot.
 

fibo_trader

Veteren member
3,725 73
Here is one for you, it depends if you are expecting this to be a sit and wait or requires a daily active input... a while ago I ran some back testing on the first ‘open’ 1 hour candle printed on the any instrument to provide the sentiment for that trading day...

Combine that with a MACD or RSI?

Just an idea


Current winning Indicator in the entire world is a simple one, so simple that GOD purposely messes with the cats who complicate things too much. Yeah sure, one can look at instruments outside the Dow like the ones I mentioned for example, like the Vix, the FTSE 100, Bonds, etc., etc.,

But what about looking at the spleen and kidneys and Descending Colon of the Dow Jones hisself for such an indicator. Surely a doctor would love such an indicator for HEALTH related stuff

That indicator be the Indicator that the Duke of London loves :) :) :)

Its name is RSI. On monthly it gives the first warning to Investors to get ready, the TOP is approaching. Even if one got out right there, the profits would be totally stunning indeed - no need to wait for the actual top which since this is the monthly tiemframe could take another few months or a year. But think about it - you could be at the beach for that year instead of market stress (all investing/trading carries gobs of stress = killer of health and well-being)

So now in October 2019 a quick review of the RSI monthly on the Dow Jones monthly gives a warning or exit signal on December 2018 :whistle::whistle::whistle::whistle::whistle:


Perhaps now finally after all these months the gone case place known as T2W will finally wake up to the fact that poster ssam is no ordinary trader. His LIKES are stagnant because he associates with me. Its punishment but its the wrong target. I, fibo_trader remind everybody that it is only I who should be the target of all punishment

Release Sam now. He is the Duke of London and outclasses each and every one of you combined.



268856
 

fibo_trader

Veteren member
3,725 73
Here is one for you, it depends if you are expecting this to be a sit and wait or requires a daily active input... a while ago I ran some back testing on the first ‘open’ 1 hour candle printed on the any instrument to provide the sentiment for that trading day...

Combine that with a MACD or RSI?

Just an idea


Applying the Duke of London Indicator RSI to the daily .................... now remember that Daily timeframe does not hold the juice of the overall wave. that honor is held only by the monthly. But we will apply it here as I normally always do. So now, as of October 19, 2019, the Dow Jones has NOT crashed - the trend is still up for all practical purposes. So let's see what the RSI on daily timeframe is saying .....................

See the yellow diamond in the RSI panel? It tells that the wave hit a lower low from a higher high. It might not be enough but it does flash weakness to me. So I drew an RSI trendline thru' this weakness warning diamond. Break that line and its obvious Dow is dropping.

But what about acting on the diamond itself and not waiting for the Dow to break the trendline? Yep, a smart cat trader would start liquidating positions on the rally after that diamond or just simply, like Bernard Baruch, exit altogether and go to a BEAR cave and enjoy the spoils of war.

Bernard Baruch said, "I made my millions by getting out early" Excellent trader, this Bernard.


268857
 

fibo_trader

Veteren member
3,725 73
Thread title: Leading Indicator for Dow Jones:



Duke of London Indicator called RSI wins hands down on the monthly.

Daily is being tested now in real time
 

ssam

Well-known member
282 8
RSI
Current winning Indicator in the entire world is a simple one, so simple that GOD purposely messes with the cats who complicate things too much. Yeah sure, one can look at instruments outside the Dow like the ones I mentioned for example, like the Vix, the FTSE 100, Bonds, etc., etc.,

But what about looking at the spleen and kidneys and Descending Colon of the Dow Jones hisself for such an indicator. Surely a doctor would love such an indicator for HEALTH related stuff

That indicator be the Indicator that the Duke of London loves :) :) :)

Its name is RSI. On monthly it gives the first warning to Investors to get ready, the TOP is approaching. Even if one got out right there, the profits would be totally stunning indeed - no need to wait for the actual top which since this is the monthly tiemframe could take another few months or a year. But think about it - you could be at the beach for that year instead of market stress (all investing/trading carries gobs of stress = killer of health and well-being)

So now in October 2019 a quick review of the RSI monthly on the Dow Jones monthly gives a warning or exit signal on December 2018 :whistle::whistle::whistle::whistle::whistle:


Perhaps now finally after all these months the gone case place known as T2W will finally wake up to the fact that poster ssam is no ordinary trader. His LIKES are stagnant because he associates with me. Its punishment but its the wrong target. I, fibo_trader remind everybody that it is only I who should be the target of all punishment

Release Sam now. He is the Duke of London and outclasses each and every one of you combined.



View attachment 268856
RSI is a higher being! Very nice indeed. Combine this with trend lines and it is only the entry and exit that needs thought.

Likes only means I be doing something right - when I need to be doing things wrong / unconventional.
 

ssam

Well-known member
282 8
Hahaha! I had a ge
Thread title: Leading Indicator for Dow Jones:



Duke of London Indicator called RSI wins hands down on the monthly.

Daily is being tested now in real time
Hahah - the chart analysis be coming this evening (GMT+X?) had an insanely busy weekend, but back on the train in the grey, raining dystopian land of Londres.
 

fibo_trader

Veteren member
3,725 73
RSI


RSI is a higher being! Very nice indeed. Combine this with trend lines and it is only the entry and exit that needs thought.

Likes only means I be doing something right - when I need to be doing things wrong / unconventional.

You nailed it. Just look at the chartmaster who makes frequent appearance on CNBC - he is an expert on just one thing - Trendines. And look at the numerous good calls he has made over time,

I pointed this out to Des from ET nowhere as Rufus_Leakey but they all and others by the metric tonne flat out replied, "trendlines don't work"

I don't give a .....
 

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