Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

Triangle Update......

The price is showing more interest in testing the resistance line than support, and a breakout seems imminent, very likely leading to another test of resistance in the upper 10900's imho........

The talking heads also seem to be looking 'up'........

Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst at S.W. Bach, said the market was drawing support from a favorable new personal income and spending report.

This week the stock market has not registered the vigorous gains seen in November, but some analysts still hope for a year-end "Santa Claus rally."

"The year-end rally should resume next week on window dressing," said Cardillo.

Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald, said "The one thing about the Santa Claus Rally is that it is not driven by fundamentals or technicals. It is mostly driven by year-end bonus money, re-upped 401k and IRA money, and window dressing."

:cheesy:
 

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Oh we should believe them about this 'santa' rally now with just half a trading day left before he is supposed to appear? What have they been saying for the last month?
Everyone believes in him I suppose!
The figures.........

23/11
Dow 10916
NasC 2259
S&P 1265

22/12
Dow 10889
NasC 2246
S&P 1268
 
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Racer - Maybe it was really a ‘Guy Fawkes’ rally ‘cos it started with an immense ‘bang’ in early November….

All that Santa’s got left to do is sprinkle some ‘fairy dust’ on the top……!........ ;)
 
leovirgo said:
I was kidding obviously. I think it will have a new style from tomorrow onwards. Let's see that.
I had to go out and missed the day. It was a steady up day and looks like it's over with the pop and flop style. So is it last minute Xmas decoration?
 
Could this be the thin edge of the wedge :!:

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. new home sales fell more than expected in November as rising mortgage rates and elevated prices discouraged some buyers, leaving a record number of homes on the market. Purchases fell 11.3 percent to a 1.245 million annual rate from October's revised 1.404 million pace, which was a record, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median price of a new home rose last month to $225,200 from $224,500 a year earlier. New home sales in the first 11 months almost set a fifth straight annual record, an achievement that won't be repeated in 2006 as rising borrowing costs make houses less affordable, economists said. The fall-off will slow the economy and make business more difficult for homebuilders such as Toll Brothers Inc., whose stock price fell 29 percent in the last six months.

``This suggests a correction from the unexpected record surge we saw in October,'' Ellen Beeson Zentner, an economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. in New York, said before the report. ``A huge amount of this decline is due to rising mortgage rates, which are the largest factor in home sales and are expected to continue to increase as the Fed raises interest rates.''

The number of homes for sale at the end of the month increased to a record 503,000 in November from 487,000 a month earlier. The supply of new homes at the current sales pace rose to 4.9 months, the most since December 1996, from October's 4.2 months.
Sales fell in three of four regions. They decreased 22.1 percent in the West, the biggest fall in more than 10 years, to 342,000; 18.3 percent in the Midwest to 156,000; and 5.5 percent in the South to 654,000. They rose 13.4 percent in the Northeast to 93,000.

Americans actually bought 85,000 new homes in November, about 1,000 sales short of a new annual record. That brings the total for the year to 1.202 million. The record is 1.203 million, set in 2004. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.33 percent last month from 6.06 percent in October. That compares with 5.85 percent for the year and 9.5 percent since Jan. 1, 1980, according to Freddie Mac, the No. 2 U.S. mortgage buyer. This month, the 30-year rate averaged 6.29 percent. At October's average, the monthly payment on a $100,000 loan would be $620.93. When mortgage rates were at a 40-year low of 5.21 percent in June 2003, the cost was $549.73 a month.

The Federal Reserve on Dec. 13 raised its benchmark lending rate for a 13th consecutive time, to 4.25 percent, to slow inflation and remove what outgoing Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has called ``froth'' in the housing market. Mortgage rates, which mostly fell for the first year after the Fed began increasing interest rates in June 2004, are now climbing. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the Fed will raise rates by a quarter percentage point in the first quarter and again in the second quarter. Bruce Karatz, chief executive officer of KB Home, said speculators began leaving the housing market six months ago. The Los Angeles-based company is the fifth-largest U.S. homebuilder by stock market value. KB Home's $7 billion backlog is 40 percent higher than it was a year ago, Karatz said in an interview last week. He expects the largest home building companies to gain market share in a more competitive environment and attributes this month's decline in homebuilder confidence -- a 32-month-low -- to worried smaller companies.

New home sales make up about 15 percent of total sales and existing home sales account for the rest. The National Association of Realtors probably will report on Dec. 29 that existing home sales fell to a 7 million annual rate in November from 7.09 million the prior month, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News said. The existing sales index tracks contract closings, which typically lag signings by a month or two. ``The market isn't as vibrant as it was six months ago,'' Joel Rassman, chief financial officer of Toll Brothers, said in a Dec. 20 interview. Horsham, Pennsylvania-based Toll Brothers, the largest U.S. builder of luxury homes, reduced its 2006 sales forecast Nov. 6, saying the housing market is weakening.

The National Association of Home Builders is forecasting a 6.5 percent drop in new home sales next year. The Mortgage Bankers Association is predicting a 3.3 percent drop and the National Association of Realtors expects a 4.8 percent decrease The sales decline may accelerate this quarter as consumers try to lock-in borrowing costs before they rise further. A slower housing sector may mean fewer jobs in mortgage lending, real estate and construction. Since 2001, the housing market accounted for 50 percent of U.S. economic growth and more than half of private payroll jobs creation, according to a report in August by Merrill Lynch & Co., the world's largest securities firm. U.S. mortgage lenders will trim 10 percent to 15 percent of their record 535,000 employees next year, said Orawin Velz, director of forecasting at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

``We're expecting a decline in employment because we expect the volume of originations to decline pretty significantly next year -- 20 percent,'' Velz said.

The number of mortgage applications fell to the second-lowest level this year in the week ended Dec. 16, according to the mortgage bankers' group. The decline in home sales and price appreciation next year may slow consumer spending and economic growth. The U.S. economy grew at a 4.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter, and may average 3.4 percent next year, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 72 economists published Dec. 9. Consumer spending will average 2.8 percent next year, the survey showed, after rising 4.1 percent in the third quarter.

``The housing market is definitely cooling,''' said Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research Corp. in New York. This suggests that the October record was the result of last minute purchasers in a rising mortgage rate environment.''
 
kriesau said:
Could this be the thin edge of the wedge :!: .''
You mean, a small wedge from yesterday? Right now it's found support at yesterday's upward trend line. It looks like a triangle with the mouth of 820-900. But I am not sure if it can break out 900 resistance line. Anything below 870 will invalidate that triangle.
 
HAPPY XMAS to all fellow reprobates etc.
I think a smart bet would be a short over Christmas in case Bin Bags and fellow loonies commit some atrocity or other !!
 
more Santa rally


"Stocks broke higher Tuesday as initial retail tallies from Christmas looked strong and traders searched for the heretofore elusive Santa Claus rally."


Here
 
oh santa forgot about the curves................

NEW YORK (Dow Jones) -- U.S. stocks erased early gains to turn broadly lower Tuesday, as a sharp drop in energy prices was offset by developments in the bond market that have typically foreshadowed a noticeable slowdown in the economy.
The yield curve, or the spread between the yields on shorter-term and longer-term maturities, inverted for the first time in five years. In the past, inverted yield curves have usually preceded a recession.

.............any ole, any ole excuse.....
 
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VIX has shown a very large gap up at the start from 10.25 to close to 11 and subsequently still rising at 11.25.
VIX by measuring futures balance, is meant to show some prior indication of the future trend in the index.
Or am I reading too much into that?
 
I've closed all shorts and decided to go long....

Nice downside today but I don't think the upside will be over this quickly........

Up from here....further support at 1251 and 10750......

We could see some upside from here......

My prediction for the year was no touch on 11,000 let alone closing above it.......I also said down to 10400-200 and 10000. I did also say a bust of 10000 and a touch of 9800.....that didnt happen......Whipsaw for the year was also mentioned and in fairness the years been pretty inactive.......

Yes I expect a break of 10000 next year......I no many will say that I am a bear overall but I have been long on many occassions this year.....Now I'm a little confused.....I wonder if we could see 11000 for January.....seems like a good posibility....as next year should be volatile and the range should double from this year......

Good luck all
 
turned for a small long ( 40 points will do ) will look for positional long after a better price
 
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