Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

--non-life (insurance) stocks to be weak until the market digests the loss
Could be looking at losses that reach or surpass the more than $20 billion caused by Hurricane Andrew

Citigroup expects Katrina losses to having a "meaningful" impact on 3Q insurance company earnings, but can't estimate the amount yet.
 
Oil seems highly speculative at the moment. The Katerina spike might be short lived and if oil falls back below $67 then we could see the Dow test 10400.
 
Oil back down to $68.50.
Dow has broken through 10400 and this appears to be the line of support at the moment.
14adv & 16dec at 16.15.
 
$70 oil

10300 Dow now 10400

Shocking shocking stuff.......especially oil............

My personal feeling is that Oil has hit its peak today......

I missed all the action........busy weekend........

Just saw the highs and lows now and then I thought what the hell happened their!

Good Luck for todays session.....
 
Ranged between 10400 - 10430 for nearly 3 hours now.
Oil steady at $68.50
SPX and NDX fairly flat
Can't see it testing resistance at 10450 today
Question is - will it break support at 10400 this afternoon ???
 
Just goes to show that one shouldn't make assumptions. Right through 10450 - will it now test 10500 ?
 
Oil up on the day, so should the market be going down? No, of course not, it isn't as high as it was LOL
 
Went a bit down at the end of the session...

So - what now? test of 10250 within 3 sessions?

P.S: sorry if I missed it... but whats "PPT" ? - (only one I is "powerpoint presentation" !)
 
karmit said:
Went a bit down at the end of the session...

So - what now? test of 10250 within 3 sessions?

P.S: sorry if I missed it... but whats "PPT" ? - (only one I is "powerpoint presentation" !)

Plunge Protection Team

Is it real ot not? Make up your own mind.

Link
 
Dow 200d exp ma is around the 10465 mark

Dow closed at 10463 yesterday

Oil going back up, futures going down, so if a rejection of this key level today then targets back open to the downside, on the other hand if it breaks above then bulls start smilin' again

Those FOMC minutes might kick it one way or t'other
 
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karmit said:
P.S: sorry if I missed it... but whats "PPT" ? - (only one I is "powerpoint presentation" !)
Here is Carl Swenlin's explanation:

Many analysts, myself included, refer to the "Plunge Protection Team" (PPT), and I am often asked what it is.


To begin, the PPT does not officially exist, but we often see their fingerprints all over the place. What is generally believed is that the government (Fed? Treasury?) and/or major financial institutions (the ones who do large amounts of program trading) sometimes conspire individually or together to support the market in order to prevent or stop a major crash. This can be done when "somebody" begins buying large amounts of index or stock futures at a time when the market is declining and is giving signs that the bottom may fall out. This buying can turn the tide by scaring the shorts and getting them to cover, and this can cause the market to reverse course, driven by a wave of short-covering, which in turn can encourage real buyers to come into the market.

While PPT action can have affect on short-term market moves, there is no evidence that anyone has so much money that they can change the long-term trend of the market. If it could be done, surely the bear market that began in 2000 would have been prevented. In my opinion, manipulation of the markets by anyone is undesirable. While it may provide temporary relief, the market must (and will) go to where it must go.

Not all upside reversals are the result of the PPT. The market can suddenly change directions in mid-crash simply because of traders taking profits when the market has gone "too far, too fast." But just imagine how quickly traders will cover their shorts if they are encourages to do so by sudden buying interest that appears out of nowhere. Whether or not there is an entity that fits the exact definition of the PPT, I don't know; but I do know that the government does manipulate the market openly through the action of the Fed, and I am paranoid enough to believe that, if there is a way for the government to secretly manipulate the markets, the government will do it. As for the major Wall Street institutions, they already manipulate the markets through program trading. Whether the two conspire together from time to time is speculation.
 
If you think the PPT exist then you can blame them if you short and get the trade wrong and not yourself ;)

and anyway it is great fun thinking it is all a conspiracy out to get you... definitely can't take the blame for any bad trades that way.
 
Although hedge funds played little role in the reinsurance market five years ago, they now reportedly account for as much as half of the capital available for some specific forms of coverage, such as protection against a single storm.



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This might be off the mainstream media, but interesting nonetheless.
 
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