Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[gmca686]

none, they're both the US of A. That's what the PPT is all about!

 

[kriesau]

CPI up 0.5% compared to expectations of 0.4%.
Futures market seems to like this number and has immediately shot up over 30 pts.
Perhaps they were worried that it was going to be greater - still it seems a bit strange !

 

[macbonzo]

CPI up 0.5% compared to expectations of 0.4%.
Futures market seems to like this number and has immediately shot up over 30 pts.
Perhaps they were worried that it was going to be greater - still it seems a bit strange !

The Core CPI was flat (0.2% was expected). Market looks more closely at the core number.

I do get the impression, that there might be a bit of "panic" short covering.

Lets see what happens at 10400.

 

[roguetrader]

CPI up 0.5% compared to expectations of 0.4%.
Futures market seems to like this number and has immediately shot up over 30 pts.
Perhaps they were worried that it was going to be greater - still it seems a bit strange !

Not sure if my interpretation of this is correct, but here goes, the above consensus resullt in the context of yesterdays above PPI is a positive for the market as it represents the ability of companies to pass on the higher cost of doing business. An at or below consensus following yesterdays data would have been bad, I think

 

[roguetrader]

The Core CPI was flat (0.2% was expected). Market looks more closely at the core number.

From an inflation perspective that does make sense.

 

[kriesau]

Not sure if my interpretation of this is correct, but here goes, the above consensus resullt in the context of yesterdays above PPI is a positive for the market as it represents the ability of companies to pass on the higher cost of doing business. An at or below consensus following yesterdays data would have been bad, I think

You may be right - but the other side of the coin is that it demonstrates continued inflationary pressure and hardens the prospect of continued interest rate hikes. This might be good for the dollar but is it good for the stock market !

 

[LION63]

Higher inflation means companies can raise prices and leads to higher profits which translate to higher share prices etc. As perverse as it may seem, it is certainly better than deflation.

 

[macbonzo]

Not sure if my interpretation of this is correct, but here goes, the above consensus resullt in the context of yesterdays above PPI is a positive for the market as it represents the ability of companies to pass on the higher cost of doing business. An at or below consensus following yesterdays data would have been bad, I think

Essentially todays CPI seems to suggest that manufacturers have absorbed increased costs (primarily fuel costs) and have not passed them on to consumers. For the short term, it means that the FOMC will not be too worried about inflation.

The other side of the coin is that by absorbing these costs of raw materials their profits and GPs will be squeezed. We will possibly see this in Q2 results.

 

[kriesau]

Pe- market Dow opening, 11 risers - led by HP, 1 faller and 18 flat.
Looks like there might be an early test of 10400 !

 

[Effkay]

The market is in a short term uptrend, and being a true technician (no fundamental influence at all), this will continue until a break below 1145 on the spx.

 

[gmca686]

Effkay, Your logic has me confused. The SPX short term uptrend would, as of today, be broken at about 1167. At 1145 the SPX would have been in a short term downtrend for 34 points.
regards

 

[Bluewave]

Upper Dow resistance line well broken... gotta be shorting time off 10,400

Edit: whoah, straight through 400!! Steady on!

 

[Effkay]

gmca, sorry for the confusion, the short term as far as my trading is concerned is for about a month, if you're talking anything shorter than that then of course the values change, out of interest what are you using to derive 1167 as the value?

The trend which is been intact for over a month now is up, and as far as my analysis is concerned will not change until 1145 is taken out, take a look at my website, as I put up commentary there.

 

[FetteredChinos]

morning all, just popped in to say howdy.

looking good on the Dow at the moment isnt it.. my faith in 10750 is restored.. i got stopped out of my long from 10245 at 10,150 for -95 , but my position long from 10,260 is looking good. will look to take profits above 10,600 at this rate.

good luck everyone, and ill be back properly in June.

FC

 

[gmca686]

Effkay, My short term is 1 week. I use a 10 day chart with 60 min candlesticks and 8 and 18 SMAs. The 18 SMA gives me the trend direction and trade direction, ie going up = buy pullbacks, going down = sell rallies. Also use trend lines. Looking at the 60 min SPX chart, the 18 SMA is strongly up at 1167.5, and the trendline from 1146 last Friday cutting 1161-ish yesterday is at 1167. Therefore, 1167 is potentially a trigger point to a downtrend.
regards, G McA

 

[fridayeve]

Picnic

good call friday or did you go for your picnic (re 4140)???

Actually I did have my picnic but only until 6.30pm when the americans had finished their last Coors and were due to return from lunch.
I do quite like this stuff, Long may it continue.
If I get time I will post tomorrows target price tonight.
Bye bye.[/

 

[JFK]

“Long may it continue” like it.
“If I get time” another Socs in the making, ya little tease.

 

[roguetrader]

Volume running considerably higher today and is currently on course to come in above the 60 day average

 

[gmca686]

On my long term Dow chart the 50 day SMA is dropping through the 200day SMA today, very bearish, but the Dow itself has just exploded up through both. So which will win? The SMA dead cross? or the power of the PPT in pulling the market up?
regards,

 

[kriesau]

On my long term Dow chart the 50 day SMA is dropping through the 200day SMA today, very bearish, but the Dow itself has just exploded up through both. So which will win? The SMA dead cross? or the power of the PPT in pulling the market up?
regards,

How long is your long term Dow chart ?