User
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It depends on the timeframe you make your trading decisions with and also the context of the trade you are placing.
As we know over the past few days 10250 has been a problem area for the Dow. Should it break this level then we could see 100 point plus move in the upward direction. The overall trend is down so if you wanted to enter a short near this problematic area then you could use a tight stop again depending on your timeframe. This could be as tight as 30-50 points on long term chart (1day candlesticks).
Hope that helps...
Racer
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How Fragile is the U.S. Economy?
As we projected in a previous strategic analysis, the U.S. economy experienced growth rates higher than 4 percent in 2004. The question we want to raise in this strategic analysis is whether these rates will persist or come back down. We believe that several signs point in the latter direction. In what follows, we analyze the evidence and explore the alternatives facing the U.S. economy.
http://www.levy.org/default.asp?view=publications_view&pubID=1021b929c35
As we projected in a previous strategic analysis, the U.S. economy experienced growth rates higher than 4 percent in 2004. The question we want to raise in this strategic analysis is whether these rates will persist or come back down. We believe that several signs point in the latter direction. In what follows, we analyze the evidence and explore the alternatives facing the U.S. economy.
http://www.levy.org/default.asp?view=publications_view&pubID=1021b929c35
Racer
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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Slumping oil prices gave stocks a boost Wednesday, in light trading volume ahead of Thursday's big events: the gross domestic product growth report and earnings from Microsoft.
The Dow Jones industrial average (up 47.67 to 10,198.80, Charts) added around 0.5 percent and the broader Standard & Poor's 500 (up 4.64 to 1,156.38, Charts) index gained around 0.4 percent.
The Nasdaq composite (up 2.99 to 1,930.43, Charts) added less than 0.2 percent.
Stocks had fallen most of the morning on the heels of disappointing quarterly earnings and a drop in durable goods orders. But falling oil prices helped stocks recover in the afternoon, albeit on lackluster trading volume.
Also helping: afternoon comments from GE's CEO in which he said that the economy remains pretty strong and that orders at GE should meet forecasts for 2005.
While positive, the day's modest advance was likely tied to whipsawing in the market lately, rather than something more substantial, analysts argued.
"We've gotten a lot of volatility, but I don't think there's anything fundamental that's changed on the economic front," said Maria Fionini Ramirez, president and CEO of Maria Fionini Ramirez, Inc.
"The volume is being driven by the headline news," she added, noting that worries about the pace of economic and corporate earnings growth remain in place.
Due to the focus on oil and how it impacts consumer spending, Wednesday's slide in the commodity probably helped sentiment, she said.
The Dow Jones industrial average (up 47.67 to 10,198.80, Charts) added around 0.5 percent and the broader Standard & Poor's 500 (up 4.64 to 1,156.38, Charts) index gained around 0.4 percent.
The Nasdaq composite (up 2.99 to 1,930.43, Charts) added less than 0.2 percent.
Stocks had fallen most of the morning on the heels of disappointing quarterly earnings and a drop in durable goods orders. But falling oil prices helped stocks recover in the afternoon, albeit on lackluster trading volume.
Also helping: afternoon comments from GE's CEO in which he said that the economy remains pretty strong and that orders at GE should meet forecasts for 2005.
While positive, the day's modest advance was likely tied to whipsawing in the market lately, rather than something more substantial, analysts argued.
"We've gotten a lot of volatility, but I don't think there's anything fundamental that's changed on the economic front," said Maria Fionini Ramirez, president and CEO of Maria Fionini Ramirez, Inc.
"The volume is being driven by the headline news," she added, noting that worries about the pace of economic and corporate earnings growth remain in place.
Due to the focus on oil and how it impacts consumer spending, Wednesday's slide in the commodity probably helped sentiment, she said.
Racer
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The market is schitzophrenic, overall I am a bear on US especially with the performance of the EU and UK indices, they are showing the true indications as far as I am concerned.
I am very reluctant to take any longs, but they are doing everything they can to pull the US up.
Lots of earnings make markets react violently from day to day, I don't like earnings season normally cos of that.. I am not a day trader.
To me, US today was bear squeeze yet again.
I am very reluctant to take any longs, but they are doing everything they can to pull the US up.
Lots of earnings make markets react violently from day to day, I don't like earnings season normally cos of that.. I am not a day trader.
To me, US today was bear squeeze yet again.
Racer
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There is something I need to research, does anyone know the amount of new negative amortisation mortgages being issued in the US?
Saw a comment today that in one area 20% of the buyers took these out..
Ouch, a bubble bigger than any other in world history in the making!
Saw a comment today that in one area 20% of the buyers took these out..
Ouch, a bubble bigger than any other in world history in the making!
Racer
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"At Fannie Mae, the home symbolizes who we are, too. Our public mission, and our defining goal, is to help more families achieve the American Dream of homeownership.
We do that by providing financial products and services that make it possible for low-, moderate-, and middle-income families to buy homes of their own. Since Fannie Mae began in 1968 we have helped more than 63 million families achieve the American Dream of homeownership."
Share price
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix...ntrol_daylistbox=&s=Current Stock Information
We do that by providing financial products and services that make it possible for low-, moderate-, and middle-income families to buy homes of their own. Since Fannie Mae began in 1968 we have helped more than 63 million families achieve the American Dream of homeownership."
Share price
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix...ntrol_daylistbox=&s=Current Stock Information
Racer said:
Don't know the current figure but Wharton Business School published a paper about 6 months ago which mentoined that US homeowners had drawn down $1.6 trillion over the previous 5 years from mortgage refinancing both to consolidate other higher interest debt and to spend on consumer durables. This would equate to roughly 12% of the $14 trillion valuation of US residential property where the original average debt ratio was 40% or $5.7 trillion. If these figures are aggregated then the consolidated mortgage debt in the US must be circa $7.3 trillion or 52%.
On that basis a half percent increase in interest rates would add $360 billion per annum in incremental debt servicing costs. If market values fell by, say 15%, then the debt equity ratio would rise to 61% and a raft of repossessions would result from people defaulting on their mortgage payments.
A bursting of the US housing market bubble coupled with rising interest rates would have far greater effect on the economy than the bursting of the Tech bubble 3 years ago. And look what THAT did to the stock markets !!!
Racer,
It appears to me that because of the different emphasis of govt policy towards tackling employment and growth that exist between US and UK , the UK might be a good leading indicator for the US.....we are a little further along in the interest rate hike, a little further along in terms of the growth in the property market...and as such we are therefore a little further along in terms of the consequences for those issues...impact on retails sales and consumer behaviour....job growth etc...March surge in resale sales in US struck me as the crowd heading for the door trying to make their move before rates went up to an unaffordable level as such I would be looking for it to start tapering off in April and subsequent months...
I'm not a short term player either ,but watching the US markets lately it struck me the behaviour could well be large funds averaging down into their favourite safe longterm plays in the expectation that the overall market direction was going to be a good deal lower over the next cycle..
It appears to me that because of the different emphasis of govt policy towards tackling employment and growth that exist between US and UK , the UK might be a good leading indicator for the US.....we are a little further along in the interest rate hike, a little further along in terms of the growth in the property market...and as such we are therefore a little further along in terms of the consequences for those issues...impact on retails sales and consumer behaviour....job growth etc...March surge in resale sales in US struck me as the crowd heading for the door trying to make their move before rates went up to an unaffordable level as such I would be looking for it to start tapering off in April and subsequent months...
I'm not a short term player either ,but watching the US markets lately it struck me the behaviour could well be large funds averaging down into their favourite safe longterm plays in the expectation that the overall market direction was going to be a good deal lower over the next cycle..
FetteredChinos
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shabba. another day.. another opportunity to wipe out my account 
todays forecast, FWIW..
largely sideways day.
potential to dip to 10,150 (my long order is in at 10,152 again)
up from there into early/pre-market friday to 10,220.
then on friday, early peak, (maybe 10,227-10,260 as per monday) and then down into a weekly close of 10,100
at least thats what i hope for, as i need some Dow Comp points..
todays forecast, FWIW..
largely sideways day.
potential to dip to 10,150 (my long order is in at 10,152 again)
up from there into early/pre-market friday to 10,220.
then on friday, early peak, (maybe 10,227-10,260 as per monday) and then down into a weekly close of 10,100
at least thats what i hope for, as i need some Dow Comp points..
FetteredChinos
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GDP data out at 13.30 hundred hours (???).. tanks on standby. snipers on the roof.
briefing.com anticipating a number below the anticipated figure. how the hell does that work??
briefing.com anticipating a number below the anticipated figure. how the hell does that work??
Does anyone have an idea as to how much the GDP data could move the market? I think I read that this is probably the most important data out this week? Do you think anything short of expectations will send the market south or will it take a significant difference to have any effect? Does anyone know how much previous GDP data has moved the market either way?
Slapshot
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rrtech said:
$64000 question.
Based on the recent activity anything could happen. The market has been bouncing around with expectations and against expectations. Wait for the annoucement and make a judgement from there.
FC. Good trading, well done.
