Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

Dow component SBC Communications (SBC, news, msgs) reported first-quarter earnings of 37 cents per share, excluding items, 4 cents per share ahead of the Reuters Estimates consensus. Revenues rose 2.4% from the year-ago period. Shares of SBC rose 0.56%.

The market posted solid gains at midday, with a big order for Boeing (BA, news, msgs) helping the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a substantial refinery deal lending strength to the energy sector.

Earnings helping to climb that wall of worry!
d998
 
The herd is feeling bearish............


US Investor Optimism Lowest Since May '03
April 25, 2005 3:00:00 PM ET



NEW YORK (Reuters) - A sell-off in the U.S. stock market and the fear of inflation pushed investor optimism to the lowest level in nearly two years, according to a survey from brokerage firm UBS and the Gallup Organization.

Investor optimism fell to 52, its lowest reading since May 2003, when it hit 42. Last month, investor optimism was 74, according to the survey of 802 investors conducted between April 1 and April 17.

During the period that the poll was conducted, the Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 2.5 percent.

Still, investors remain more optimistic than pessimistic about the performance of the stock market, with 41 percent optimistic and 33 percent pessimistic, the poll found.

That compares with last month, when 47 percent were optimistic about the stock market and just 27 percent pessimistic.

The percentage of investors who say that now is a good time to invest in the markets continues its slow decline. Fifty-seven percent express that view, down from 60 percent last month and 64 percent in December, the survey found.

© 2005 Reuters
 
Joules MM1 said:
So far the Maginot line (Jeez Joules check that spelling!) held well
Check out your choice of analogies while you're about it . The Maaginot line was never tested - the Germans just went around it
 
Joules MM1 said:
Advances 2126 (61%)
Declines 1137 (33%)
Up Vol* 981 (68%)
Down Vol* 406 (28%)
Volume; can you spell aneamic?

Don't want to be pedantic but it's either anemic or anaemic depending on whether you live in the UK or USA. :)
 
Closed long at 10250. Making 15 and 46 giving 61 for the day. Not a bad start to the week

Today's session chart posted below for newbies.
 

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We will see if he is right tomorrow..

'in a note to clients' hmm, hey look I got all this luv...velly little runner I got in stock and I can get you a good deal, one owner low mileage, MOT till the end of tomorrow (uh forget about anything that geezer Spitzer says he just wants the mo'uh to imself)

NEW YORK (AFX) -- Shares of American International Group closed Monday up 2.8%, enough to make the insurer the biggest percentage gainer among Dow components. Merrill Lynch said in a note to clients that the potential for any further accounting adjustments to AIG's 2004 earnings and book value is already reflected in the share price. Analyst Jay Cohen, reiterated his buy rating on the stock, and said he believes there is 'good downside fundamental support for the shares between $49 and $50' vs. his 12-month price objective of $65. The stock closed up $1.41 at $51.76.
 
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Interesting last hour again today, I wouldn't be surprised if a move higher is on the cards for tomorrow, economic news and earnings permitting of course.
 
Volume divergence

I'm in the Dow bear camp at the moment. :arrowd:
Notice the volume had dropped the last 4 days while the indices edged up.
IMO it will drop below 10100 this week unless we get a strong bias on earning this week.
:confused:
 
10,750 by end of May anyone? might even overshoot somewhat by another 300 points (half monthly range) into the 11,100 mark.

looks as though 10,200 is proving hard work at the moment..

still short from 10,244 average price at the mo. looking for that decent sell off into wednesday. TP is 10,135

quite pleased i nailed the top at 10,260 though. makes you feel warm inside, doesnt it lol..

looked like a bit of a dull day yesterday in retrospect.

those of you using oscillator indicators should have made a killing!! :)
 
ClaphamTrader said:
I'm in the Dow bear camp at the moment. :arrowd:
Notice the volume had dropped the last 4 days while the indices edged up.
IMO it will drop below 10100 this week unless we get a strong bias on earning this week.
:confused:

Dow has been in the 10,000 - 10,300 range for more than a week now. The market continues to be volatile while conditions still remain bearish. Overreactions to individual news items seem to characterize the daily market trend.

Today New Housing Sales and the Consumer Confidence Index will undoubtedly have an impact on market direction with no Dow companies reporting. Cash Futures currently 20 pts below last nights close.

I'm looking for a decisive break below 10200 to re-enter shorts which could then send the market on the way down for another test of support at 10,000. Will we see this today or maybe later in the week ?
 
think it will break on wednesday, possibly going as low as 10,050 which is my first long order, then adding at 10,015, should we get there.

this could well be the intermediate term low, and we motor up from here on light volume over the summer.

FC
 
CT,
Your thoughts are borne out by City index showing Dow off 22 points as at 09.30
NDX and SPX also down.
I too am negative medium term (this week)
 
FetteredChinos said:
looks as though 10,200 is proving hard work at the moment. still short from 10,244 average price at the mo. looking for that decent sell off into wednesday. TP is 10,135

Very good positioning to short from 10244.
My limit short entry at 10260 was just too high (Grrrrr)
What does TP stand for ?

quite pleased i nailed the top at 10,260 though. makes you feel warm inside, doesnt it lol..

The satisfaction in calling it right is greater than the pleasure in the profit (well....almost) :LOL:
 
AIG have been ordered by the regulators to file their annual return by Saturday. Lehmann Bros reckon that they will take a charge of between $5 and $8 billion against accounting irregularites which have already seen the departure of their Chairman. If true this would dilute AIG's net worth by 6% - 10%.

The price of the stock is already off 30% from it's February high, so whether this would further negatively impact the stock price remains open to doubt.
 
If Dow tests 10K next time it might just continue on down this time?
There are several FTSE 100 companies that I trade and normally would go long where they are now, they seem to be failing at support and not bouncing. I have no FTSE100 longs but just watching them.
Dax also was reluctant to bounce despite being heavily sold up to now. If that is bullish then it usually flies.
 
Racer said:
If Dow tests 10K next time it might just continue on down this time?
There are several FTSE 100 companies that I trade and normally would go long where they are now, they seem to be failing at support and not bouncing. I have no FTSE100 longs but just watching them.
Dax also was reluctant to bounce despite being heavily sold up to now. If that is bullish then it usually flies.

Dax & FTSE off 0.7% & 0.65% respectively at 11.30am.
 
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